The VN-Index has had many consecutive sessions of impressive "explosive momentum" gains accompanied by improved trading volume. This once again confirms that the market has successfully bottomed and entered an uptrend towards the old peak of 1,290 - 1,300 points, and the opportunity to surpass the peak of 1,300 points in September is greater than ever.
From the perspective of domestic investment, information related to the cooling exchange rate has contributed to the upward trend and disbursement psychology in the stock market. For example, the foreign exchange rate (according to Vietcombank) has fallen below 25,000 VND/USD.
With the increasingly clear adjustment trend from the exchange rate, experts from DSC Securities Company believe that monetary policy will continue to loosen, especially after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to decide to lower interest rates at its meeting in September. One of the early signs that appeared last week was that the interest rate on open market bills decreased twice, from 4.25%/year to 4.15%/year. Accordingly, investors are gradually moving towards a longer-term investment strategy, with buying positions or increasing the proportion more than selling positions.
What is of interest is that with the upgrade to emerging market status, according to preliminary estimates from SSI Research, capital flows from ETFs could reach up to 1.6 billion USD, not including capital flows from active funds (FTSE Russel estimates total assets from active funds to be 5 times higher than ETFs).
The move from frontier to emerging is not just a name change, but a change in quality and capital flows will come mostly from professional foreign institutional investors, or in other words, this is to achieve the goal of developing the investor base. Being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE will be a good opportunity for the Vietnamese stock market to receive attention from MSCI, in the context that the list of stock markets with the opportunity to be upgraded to emerging is quite limited (Vietnam currently has the highest proportion in the MSCI frontier basket).
Market sentiment indicators show that cash flow into the market is expanding, liquidity is increasing strongly, making the probability of successful investment on the rise. Market momentum is also increasing, with signs of cash flow returning under the leadership of large-cap stocks, especially banks. In addition, the spread is recorded in many other stock groups.
According to Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, the question for investors in the coming period is which group of stocks will the cash flow into, which stocks will have more potential. Right now, the proportion of stocks held can be increased in addition to considering the use of financial leverage. Even though the old peak of 1,290 - 1,300 points is still a strong resistance and restructuring or adjusting stocks or taking profits should also be noted, the opportunity to surpass the peak of 1,300 is greater and it is only a matter of time.
Source: https://laodong.vn/kinh-doanh/dong-tien-gia-tang-thi-truong-chung-khoan-se-but-pha-1386994.ldo
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