Stocks rose for the seventh consecutive week. The index fluctuated at times, falling below the 1,300 threshold, but quickly regained its 'form' thanks to strong cash flow 'catching' stocks. Is there any risk of an upcoming correction?
Stock market liquidity has increased sharply recently as deposit interest rates have become lower - Photo: QUANG DINH
Stock market trends become clearer in April
* Mr. Huynh Hoang Phuong, FIDT's asset management consultant:
- Cash flow has been stronger recently, and investors' views are that the Government is strongly supporting the domestic economy. At the end of last year, most forecasts said that interest rates could increase slightly in 2025, but monetary policy is currently trending towards stronger support than expected.
Regarding fiscal policy, public investment is quite good. However, retail consumption has not recovered significantly and the recovery is still sluggish.
I think that the expectation of a clearer recovery of the domestic market and the loose monetary policy have boosted the stock market recently. Therefore, there have been many corrections in many sessions, but the cash flow to buy stocks is much more stable. The main long-term trend will be an uptrend.
However, the story of tariffs from the Trump administration is still quite sensitive to the Vietnamese economy. This is still a factor that has not completely relieved the short-term psychology of the market, while the Vietnamese stock market is still quite speculative.
The tariff information from Mr. Trump is expected to be announced in early April. If Vietnam is mentioned, the market may completely go through a correction before returning to the main up-trend.
Therefore, the advice is that investors need to allocate to the medium-term up-trend, but should not abuse large margins at this stage.
As for foreign net selling, part of it comes from concerns about tariffs, and on the other hand, Vietnamese stock valuations are not too cheap compared to many other countries in the region to immediately attract capital flows back.
In fact, money is looking for new stories outside the US, but stories in Vietnam or Southeast Asia have not received attention.
What risks need to be considered?
* Mr. Tran Duc Anh - Director of Macroeconomics and Market Strategy, KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV):
- The focus of the market in the coming period will still come from the process of putting the KRX system into operation in the second quarter of 2025, and upgrading the Vietnamese stock market.
We believe that Vietnam may officially announce the upgrade in September 2025. This development is expected to maintain optimism and attract new foreign capital flows to the market.
Conversely, notable risk factors include: the trade war could continue to escalate beyond China, targeting the European region and neighboring countries.
This could disrupt the global economy and increase inflation risks as import tariffs put pressure on commodity prices and input costs.
Vietnam is not out of the risk of having taxes imposed on some goods as we are among the leading countries with export surpluses to the US.
In addition, prolonged geopolitical and trade conflicts could lead to capital flight from emerging markets and into safer markets.
There is still a risk of correction in the short term.
* Expert of SSI Securities Investment Analysis and Consulting Center:
- The proportion of foreign investors owning in the Vietnamese stock market currently accounts for only 13.1%, the lowest level since 2015, and the weakening of DXY will limit net selling pressure from foreign investors in the coming period.
However, global investment flows are still giving priority to developed markets, and Vietnam needs more specific market development measures to attract foreign investors to return.
The current market trend is stable and expected to attract stronger cash flow from domestic investors, coming from the rapid cash flow between low-priced industry groups.
Along with the Government's strong economic growth orientation and individual stories, typically the story of imposing defense tariffs on the steel industry, legal solutions for some residential real estate projects, expectations for implementing the KRX system, or the draft law amending and supplementing a number of articles of the Law on Credit Institutions.
We continue to see factors that continue to push the Vietnamese market to continue moving up, despite the risk of a short-term correction.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-da-vao-thoi-ky-up-trend-moi-20250310115144999.htm
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