Economic news review January 23

The central exchange rate decreased by 1 VND, the VN-Index decreased by 5.36 points, or HSBC forecasted that Vietnam's GDP will grow at 6% in 2024... are some notable economic news on January 23.

Review of economic information for the week of January 15-19 Review of economic information for January 22

Economic news review

Domestic news

In the foreign exchange market on January 23, the State Bank listed the central exchange rate at 24,030 VND/USD, down 1 VND compared to the first session of the week.

The USD buying price was kept unchanged at 23,400 VND/USD by the State Bank of Vietnam, while the USD selling price was listed at 25,181 VND/USD, 50 VND lower than the ceiling exchange rate.

On the interbank market, the dollar-dong exchange rate closed at 24,575 VND/USD, up 15 VND compared to the session on January 22.

The dollar-dong exchange rate on the free market remained unchanged in both buying and selling directions, trading at 24,980 VND/USD and 25,080 VND/USD.

On January 23, the average interbank VND interest rate decreased by 0.01 - 0.05 percentage points in all terms of 1 month or less compared to the first session of the week, specifically: overnight 0.18%; 1 week 0.29%; 2 weeks 0.50% and 1 month 1.15%.

The average interbank USD interest rate increased by 0.01 - 0.02 percentage points for short terms while remaining unchanged for 1-month terms; trading at: overnight 5.12%; 1 week 5.24%; 2 weeks 5.30%, 1 month 5.39%.

Government bond yields in the secondary market decreased in most maturities except for an increase in the 5-year term; closing at: 3-year 1.20%; 5-year 1.39%; 7-year 1.78%; 10-year 2.23%; 15-year 2.44%.

Yesterday, in the open market operations, on the mortgage channel, the State Bank offered VND1,000 billion for a term of 07 days, the interest rate remained at 4.0%. There was no winning bid volume, no circulating volume on this channel. The State Bank did not offer SBV bills and there were no bills circulating on the market.

The stock market fell yesterday under selling pressure from the banking group. At the end of the session, VN-Index fell 5.36 points (-0.45%) to 1,177.50 points; HNX-Index lost 0.51 points (-0.29%) to 229.26 points; UPCoM-Index fell 0.27 points (-0.31%) to 87.45 points. Market liquidity was below the 20-day average with a trading value of over VND16,600 billion. Foreign investors net bought nearly VND177 billion for 9 consecutive sessions on all 3 exchanges.

HSBC Bank forecasts that Vietnam's GDP will grow by 6% in 2024, higher than the growth rate in 2023. According to HSBC, the strength of Vietnam's economy in 2024 will come from a combination of consumer spending and investment. Strong foreign direct investment flows may continue this year, supporting Vietnam's manufacturing sector. The new global trade cycle recovery will also boost Vietnam's exports.

However, HSBC noted that inflation in Vietnam could face risks of rising due to higher-than-expected energy or food prices. Therefore, the Vietnamese monetary authority will be cautious and keep the operating interest rate unchanged this year. HSBC also forecasts the USD/VND exchange rate to be at 24,400 VND/USD by the end of 2024.

International News

The Richmond branch of the US Federal Reserve reported that the industrial production index (in the 5 counties of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia) was only -15 points in January, down from -11 points the previous month and contrary to the forecast of an increase to -7 points. This is the 5th consecutive month of this indicator weakening, and also the lowest score in the past 8 months.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy rate unchanged at its first meeting of the year. At its meeting yesterday, January 23, the BoJ forecast the country's inflation rate at 2.4% in 2024, lower than the 2.8% forecast in the previous quarter. For 2025, the BoJ also revised its inflation forecast from 1.7% to 1.8%.

In addition, the BoJ decided to maintain the policy rate at -0.1, unchanged from before. However, some experts at Bloomberg still believe that the BoJ may raise the policy rate again at the April meeting, when there is enough information about the wage negotiations for workers.

Regarding inflation in Japan, the core CPI in December 2023 in this country increased by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly decelerating from 2.7% in the previous month and contrary to the forecast of an increase to 2.8%.

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