Economic news review January 14

The central exchange rate increased by 3 VND, the VN-Index decreased by 6.58 points, or UOB raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 7%, instead of the previous 6.6%... are some notable economic news on January 14.

Economic news review

Domestic news

Foreign exchange market, session 14/01, State Bank listed the central exchange rate at 24,346 VND/USD, up 03 VND compared to the first session of the week.

The buying and selling prices of USD were kept unchanged by the State Bank of Vietnam at 23,400 VND/USD and 25,450 VND/USD, respectively.

On the interbank market, the dollar-dong exchange rate closed at 25,388 VND/USD, down 12 VND compared to the session on January 13.

The dollar-dong exchange rate on the free market decreased by 50 VND in both buying and selling directions, trading at 25,650 VND/USD and 25,750 VND/USD.

Interbank money market, January 14, the average interbank VND interest rate decreased again by 0.06 - 0.48 percentage points for all terms from 1 month or less compared to the first session of the week; specifically: overnight 4.50%; 1 week 4.82%; 2 weeks 5.07 and 1 month 5.20%. The average interbank USD interest rate decreased by 0.01 percentage point for overnight and 1 month terms while increasing by 0.01 percentage point for 1 week term, remaining unchanged for 2 week term, trading at: overnight 4.41%; 1 week 4.49%; 2 weeks 4.56%, 1 month 4.60%.

Government bond yields in the secondary market remained unchanged for the 3-year term, slightly decreased for the 5-year term and increased for the remaining terms, closing the session at: 3-year 2.09%; 5-year 2.42%; 7-year 2.64%; 10-year 3.07%; 15-year 3.25%.

In the open market operations, on the mortgage channel, the State Bank bids VND8,000 billion, with a term of 7 days, and an interest rate of 4.0%. The entire volume was won; VND5,000 billion matured. The State Bank bids for SBV bills with a term of 07, with an interest rate auction. VND5,000 billion won the bid with an interest rate of 4.0%. VND17,800 billion matured.

Thus, the State Bank of Vietnam pumped a net VND15,800 billion into the market through the open market channel yesterday. There were VND67,999.88 billion circulating on the mortgage channel, and VND62,300 billion in treasury bills circulating on the market.

On the stock market yesterday, all indices fell, selling pressure increased at the end of the session. At the end of the session, VN-Index lost 6.58 points (-0.53%) to 1,229.07 points; HNX-Index decreased 1.35 points (-0.61%) to 218.27 points; UPCoM-Index fell 0.10 points (-0.11%) to 92.12 points. Market liquidity was very low with a trading value of over VND9,200 billion. Foreign investors net sold nearly VND647 billion on all three exchanges.

With positive growth results in 2024, UOB has raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 7%, from the previous 6.6%. The decision comes after the economy grew 7.09% last year, far exceeding the market consensus of 6.7% and the official target of 6.5%.

International News

The US Census Bureau said the core PPI producer price index in the country was flat (0.0% compared to the previous month) in December 2024, contrary to the forecast of continuing to increase 0.2% as in November 2024. The total PPI last month also increased slightly by 0.2% compared to the previous month, lower than the increase of the previous month and at the same time the forecast of 0.4%. Compared to the same period in 2023, the core PPI and the total PPI in December both increased by 3.3% compared to the same period in 2023, opposite to the increases of 3.5% and 3.0% in November, respectively.

Today, the market awaits the report on the US consumer price index (CPI) for December 2024. The core CPI and the headline CPI are forecast to increase by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively compared to the previous month last month, after both increasing by 0.3% in November. The headline CPI is also forecast to increase by 2.9% compared to the same period last year, expanding from 2.7% in November. The CPI statistics may affect the market's expectations for the Fed's decision at the meeting on January 29.

Currently, CME forecasts show a 97% chance that the Fed will keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% at this meeting, and only a 3% chance of a 25 basis point cut to 4.0% - 4.25%.

The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.7% this month, following a 2.0% decline in the previous month, to 92.1. Most Australian consumers rated their future economic and income prospects as stable, and also believed that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would not cut its policy rate in the near future.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/diem-lai-thong-tin-kinh-te-ngay-141-159872-159872.html