North Korea is developing ballistic missile submarines to gain dominance under the sea, forcing South Korea to push for more advanced projects to gain an advantage.
In a 2023 year-end meeting with senior military officials, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un accused the US and its allies of increasingly hostile actions, the peninsula was moving closer to the brink of armed conflict, and Pyongyang was mistaken in assessing Seoul's goodwill for reconciliation.
Mr. Kim called on the military to "sharpen the treasured sword" to protect security and peace. He stressed that the North Korean military must be ready to mobilize all its greatest strength to "deliver a crushing blow and completely destroy the enemy."
One of the weapons that North Korea considers its "invincible treasure sword" is the submarine "Hero Kim Kun-ok" number 841. The North Korean Navy launched this submarine in early September 2023 with the participation of Mr. Kim Jong-un. This is a diesel-electric submarine model that can fire missiles carrying nuclear warheads from underwater.
"Submarine 841 is capable of defeating any formidable enemy," the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) commented.
This is the second ballistic missile submarine (SSB) of the North Korean navy, after the Gorae-class 8.24 Yongung, also known as Sinpo, which was launched by Pyongyang in 2014. However, the 8.24 Yongung appears to be used only as a test launch vehicle for submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and it is unclear whether it will be put into operation in the future.
There is currently not much official information about the 841 submarine development project. North Korea is believed to have begun building this submarine in 2016, when Pyongyang announced its first successful SLBM test.
North Korea's submarine 841 during its launching ceremony on September 6. Photo: Reuters
In 2019, North Korean media released images of Kim Jong-un touring the Shinpo shipyard and inspecting a “newly built submarine.” Although the image was partially blurred, analysts pointed out that this was a heavily modified version of the Project 633 diesel-electric submarine, known to NATO as the Romeo class, built by the Soviet Union in the late 1950s. North Korea learned this design in the 1970s and calls it the Shinpo-C class.
US and South Korean intelligence in April 2021 assessed that the construction of Ship 841 had been completed, but North Korea would not launch the ship until September 2023. Images released at the launching ceremony showed that Ship 841 has changed a lot since it appeared in 2019.
"Compared to the 2019 design, the ship has been extended by about 10 meters, the bow has been shortened, rounded and widened a bit. The rudder has also been moved from the bow to the conning tower," commented Benjamin Brimelow, editor of Business Insider .
According to the latest images, the ship is about 86 meters long, more than 6 meters wide, and has a displacement of 1,830 tons. The missile compartment is located behind the command tower and rises above the body, similar to the design of Russia's Project 667 nuclear ballistic missile submarine and China's Type-094.
According to military expert Tyler Rogoway of the Drive , this option allows the submarine to carry ballistic and cruise missiles that are longer than the diameter of the hull. However, the storage compartment will create a lot of drag, limiting the maneuverability and increasing the noise level of the submarine, making it easier for the enemy to detect.
The vertical launch tube cluster consists of four large tubes in the front and six smaller tubes in the back, suggesting that they will carry different types of missiles. Modifying the bow could also force North Korea to eliminate the torpedo attack capability, or reduce the crew living quarters to accommodate the launcher cluster.
"Only four of the 841's launch tubes are large enough to fire ballistic missiles, most likely naval versions of the KN-23 short-range missile. The remaining smaller tubes could be used to carry the Hwasal-1 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM), which was test-fired by North Korea in March," Brimelow said.
The KN-23 is a single-stage solid-fuel ballistic missile with a range of about 700 km and a 500 kg warhead, while the Hwasal-1 is a cruise missile with a range of about 1,500 km. Expert Rogoway believes that the 841 submarine can also launch the Hwasal-2 SLCM with a range of 2,000 km.
During its launch in September, North Korean state media called the 841 a “tactical nuclear attack submarine,” suggesting the submarine was designed to carry out strikes around the Korean peninsula, rather than “strategic” targets as far away as the continental United States, according to Brimelow.
In a statement on January 1, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik asked the country's military to be ready to respond to "crush the opponent's will and ability to carry out provocations with swift and decisive punishment."
"In the face of a critical security situation, the military needs to strengthen its readiness to act to overwhelm the enemy. Peace can only be maintained by superior strength, not by empty words, documents and vain dreams," Mr. Shin declared.
Observers say these tough statements from both sides could heat up the underwater race, where submarines are considered the "trump card" for North Korea and South Korea to ensure the secrecy of their military moves.
South Korea's counterweight in the undersea race with North Korea is the indigenous Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarine, officially known as the KSS-III. With a displacement of more than 3,000 tons, this is the largest submarine class in the South Korean navy.
The Dosan Ahn Chang-ho submarine during testing. Photo: Republic of Korea Navy
This is an observation system that helps submarines perceive the outside situation faster than the naked eye can see, and at the same time, they do not have to surface close to the water and bring the optical sight out like the old periscope system, making the submarine more difficult to detect.
The Dosan Ahn Changho is also equipped with acoustic tiles, materials designed to absorb sound waves actively and reduce noise that can be detected by passive sonar systems. This technology is rarely equipped for non-nuclear submarines. In addition, the ship is equipped with sonar installed on the bow, sides and towed behind the stern.
In terms of weapons systems, the ship has 6 torpedo tubes in the bow and 6 vertical launch tubes behind the command tower, capable of launching Hyunmoo 4-4 ballistic missiles with a range of 500 km or Hyunmoo-3 cruise missiles with a maximum range of 1,500 km.
South Korea has commissioned two KSS-III-class submarines, the ROKS Dosan Ahn Changho in 2021 and the ROKS Ahn Mu in April. The next KSS-III-class vessel, the ROKS Shin Chae-ho, is scheduled to be delivered to the navy in 2024.
Seoul plans to build a total of nine KSS-III-class submarines in three batches of three. The boats in the last two batches will be larger, with 10 vertical launch tubes instead of the six tubes of the first three. They will also be equipped with larger lithium batteries, increasing their range and endurance.
Seoul is also considering upgrading future KSS-III-class vessels, such as adding vertical launch systems and building a nuclear-powered version.
According to Brimelow, the race in the field of ballistic missile submarines is important, and could give North Korea or South Korea an advantage in the event of a conflict on the Korean peninsula.
"Both countries want weapons that give them the ability to strike back, even preemptively, and that are difficult for the enemy to destroy with artillery, fighter jets and missiles," the editor wrote.
Brimelow said South Korea may be ahead in this race because North Korea's 841 submarine is an older design and does not possess modern technology like the South Korean vessel, although it is equipped with more missile launchers.
"With a design from the 1950s, the 841 will be at a disadvantage when facing modern anti-submarine weapons," the writer commented, adding that a Romeo-class submarine like the 841 "would hardly be able to operate effectively" after being modified so extensively.
Mr. Kim Jong-un and senior North Korean officials at the launching ceremony of submarine 841 on September 6. Photo: Reuters
Bruce Bennet, a Korean Peninsula security expert at the US-based RAND Corporation, said that the 841 could have “stability” and other problems, based on images of the ship when it was launched. He also said the ship was “too slow, too noisy and too old” when compared to South Korea’s KSS-III class in terms of operational efficiency.
North Korea's newest submarine will not have the mobility and endurance to conduct combat missions far from shore, according to Ankit Panda, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the US. "I think Pyongyang will rarely let this submarine leave port," he said.
Instead, the 841 will operate in or near North Korean waters, or serve as the country's transporter-launcher (TEL).
"The ship will hardly survive against the enemy's modern anti-submarine weapons, but it can help increase the overall attack power of North Korea's nuclear force," Panda said.
At the launching ceremony of the 841, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that Pyongyang's remaining Romeo-class attack submarines would be upgraded to SSBs. He also stressed that the country's navy would continue to push forward with its "nuclear weaponization" efforts, including building nuclear submarines.
North Korea does not currently have the resources to pursue this ambition, said Bennet. "Pyongyang does not have much money to pursue large development projects," he said.
Still, North Korea’s successful development of a new nuclear weapon delivery vehicle, as well as its recent progress in miniaturizing nuclear warheads, pose significant challenges for South Korea, according to Panda. “That will force South Korea to always be wary of the possibility that North Korea will successfully equip nuclear weapons on submarines,” he said.
Pham Giang (According to Business Insider, Drive, Reuters )
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