President Erdogan is pursuing populist policies and an independent foreign policy to win re-election, even though it may further strain relations with the West.
"Once again the balance of world power will be reshaped. Türkiye will have unparalleled power and authority in the global order," incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a crowd of supporters in Ankara on May 28, after he was declared the winner of the second round of elections, defeating his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
Erdogan, 69, has led Türkiye since 2003 as prime minister and then president. With this victory, he will be in power for at least 25 consecutive years. As Turkey's longest-serving leader, he has proven the appeal of his personal political brand to millions of supporters.
"He is calm under pressure. He knows what he is doing and he shows that he will be responsible. That appeals to most voters, especially the Turkish people," said Jim Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Turkey.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the presidential palace in Ankara, Turkey on May 27. Photo: AP
Erdogan overcame Islamist rivals in Istanbul to become mayor of the city in the 1990s. Praised for bringing basic services like running water and gas to the poor, Erdogan became prime minister and presided over an economic boom in Türkiye, bringing millions into the middle class and fueling his ambitions to turn the country into a great power.
This year’s election is Mr. Erdogan’s toughest political test in two decades in power. In pursuit of economic growth at all costs, Mr. Erdogan has pressured the central bank to cut interest rates despite high inflation.
That policy has caused the Turkish lira to lose nearly 80% of its value against the dollar over the past five years, while the cost of living has skyrocketed, leaving even his most loyal supporters uneasy about him.
The February earthquake that killed more than 56,000 people in Türkiye and Syria has also raised questions about Erdogan’s tenure. Under his rule, the Turkish government has allowed contractors to build massive substandard buildings, touting it as a way to boost the economy. Many of those buildings collapsed in the disaster, causing heavy casualties in Türkiye.
"I ask for forgiveness," he said during a visit to the earthquake-ravaged city of Adiyaman in February.
But going into the election, Mr. Erdogan has aggressively implemented important domestic policies to attract voters. He has used state resources to rapidly build new buildings for earthquake victims, and has increased the minimum wage and benefits for civil servants.
As the election neared, he decided to provide free gas to the entire country for a month. These spending sprees drained the country's coffers, but also eased ongoing financial troubles.
"Of course no one can say the economy is in good shape, but we believe he will fix it. We give him another chance," said Rasim Turan, a shopkeeper in Istanbul's Suleymaniye neighborhood, explaining his decision to vote for Erdogan.
Mr. Erdogan also sought to boost nationalism among voters, sending the TCG Anadolu, Türkiye's first amphibious ship, to the Bosphorus Strait, demonstrating the development of the country's arms industry and military strength.
"This is the first time in a century that Türkiye has been able to do this. This success has influenced my vote," said Ramazan Ibis, who voted for Mr Erdogan, as he lined up to admire the new ship.
Mr. Erdogan also implemented a foreign policy that was both flexible and tough, helping to increase Türkiye's influence in the region, in the context of increasing power conflicts between Russia and the West.
Over the past year, he has cemented his image as a major world leader by brokering peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. He has agreed to sell arms to Kiev, but has also increased economic cooperation with Moscow. He has continued to block Sweden from joining NATO, a stance that has support in Türkiye, despite friction and disagreements with Western allies.
"We have become a more vocal country in the world. He has helped Türkiye become less dependent on foreign countries," Murat Sisko, a 22-year-old electronics technician, said of President Erdogan.
As President Erdogan enters his third decade in power, observers say he faces a growing number of challenges. The Central Bank of Türkiye’s (CBT) net foreign exchange reserves fell into negative territory for the first time since 2002, to -$151.3 million on May 19.
Economists say Mr Erdogan is likely to continue using interventions in the CBT, along with possible cash injections from Russia and the Gulf, to keep the country from falling into a liquidity crunch.
“He will try to prevent the economy from collapsing by finding money from somewhere,” said Ayhan Sefer Ustun, a former lawmaker from President Erdogan’s AKP party.
Erdogan supporters celebrate in Istanbul, Turkey on May 28. Photo: AP
While Türkiye's economic prospects are unclear, the West will have to get used to Mr Erdogan remaining a tough leader on the international stage for at least the next five years.
Türkiye is a long-standing member of NATO, but Mr. Erdogan is likely to continue a more independent foreign policy, so that Ankara is no longer dependent on Washington and its Western allies.
In 2017, Türkiye signed a deal to buy the S-400 missile system from Russia amid warming relations between Ankara and Moscow. The US had warned Türkiye that a NATO member should not buy Russian military equipment, but Ankara went ahead with the deal anyway. In response, the US imposed sanctions on Turkey and removed it from Washington’s F-35 fighter jet program, further straining bilateral ties.
The Ukraine conflict also shows that Türkiye’s independent foreign policy has deepened the rift between Ankara and the West. Türkiye has not supported sanctions against Russia imposed by its Western allies and continues to buy cheap oil from Moscow.
However, experts say the Turkish President does not want to completely break with the West, but wants to do things his way.
“President Erdogan sees the election as an opportunity for the West to reset relations on his terms,” said Nicholas Danforth, a fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy.
Experts say Erdogan could see his election victory as a springboard to further raise Türkiye’s international profile. “His foreign policy vision is to make Türkiye great again,” said Merve Tahiroglu, director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Democracy Project in Washington.
Thanh Tam (According to Washington Post, WSJ, Vox )
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