Rubber trading was bustling on the Christmas market holiday day

Closing yesterday's trading session, rubber prices increased by 1.18% to $2,404/ton thanks to expectations of additional economic stimulus policies from China.

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said that yesterday (December 25), most of the world's major commodity exchanges were closed for Christmas. RSS3 rubber was the only commodity still trading quite actively on the Osaka Commodity Exchange. At the close, the price of this commodity increased by 1.18% to 2,404 USD/ton thanks to expectations of additional economic stimulus policies from China - a country that plays an important role in the global rubber trade flow.

Rubber product price list

In yesterday's session, rubber prices received important support from information that China - the world's largest rubber consumer and importer - showed signs of continuing to implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to restore the economy.

China plans to boost financial support for consumption next year by increasing pension and medical insurance subsidies for citizens and expanding a consumer goods exchange program, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance. In addition, the Chinese government has agreed to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, adding to fiscal stimulus to revive the ailing economy.

The move comes as Beijing prepares to respond to the impact of increased US tariffs on Chinese imports when President-elect Donald Trump officially takes office for a second term in January 2025.

Previously, China actively implemented a series of fiscal and monetary policies to revive the stagnant economy. This information has positively impacted market sentiment about the prospect of rubber consumption in the billion-people country, thereby keeping rubber prices anchored at high levels in the last months of 2024.

Along with economic policies, the auto industry, the country's key rubber consumption activity, has also seen some improvement, creating more confidence in the increase in demand in the coming time. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November, auto production and sales in China reached 3.43 million units and 3.31 million units, up 14.7% and 8.6% over the previous month; and up 11.1% and 11.7% over the same period last year. In the first 11 months of 2024, auto production and sales in China reached 27.9 million units and 27.94 million units, up 2.9% and 3.7% over the same period last year. This growth rate is 1.1 percentage points and 1 percentage point higher than the levels recorded in the January-October period.

On the supply side, the market is still concerned about the rubber supply situation in major producing countries. According to the latest report of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global natural rubber production in November reached about 1.4 million tons, up 3.7% compared to the previous month but down 1.1% compared to the same period last year. In the first 11 months of the year, global natural rubber production is estimated to have increased by 2.3% to 12.7 million tons.

On the other hand, natural rubber consumption in November reached more than 1.27 million tons, down 1.4% compared to the previous month but up 2.5% compared to the same period last year. Thereby, the total global rubber consumption decreased by 2.8% in 11 months, down to more than 13.5 million tons.

Although production growth is higher than consumption growth, this forecast still leaves global production short by about 841,000 tons compared to consumption.

According to statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in the first 15 days of December, Vietnam's rubber export volume reached more than 115,300 tons, down 13% in volume but up 18% in value over the same period last year. Accumulated from the beginning of the year to December 15, Vietnam's total rubber export volume was 1.89 million tons, down 6% in volume but up 17% in value over the same period in 2023. The growth in export value was due to the average rubber export price increasing sharply compared to last year.

Of which, the export price of rubber to the largest export market, China, increased sharply compared to the same period last year. In November 2024, the average export price of rubber to this market reached 1,905 USD/ton, up 40% compared to the previous month. In the first 11 months of this year, the average export price of rubber to China reached 1,653 USD/ton, up 24.8% compared to the same period last year.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-hom-nay-2612-cao-su-giao-dich-soi-dong-trong-ngay-thi-truong-nghi-le-giang-sinh-366266.html