The market experienced a volatile trading week when it recorded a sudden reversal of 24.34 points in the last trading session of the week, taking away almost all the recovery efforts of the previous sessions.
Notably, market liquidity also increased dramatically in the last session of the week with a total transaction value of VND28,211 billion - the highest in the past 2 months. The average total transaction value of the week reached VND21,243 billion, up 4.6% compared to the previous week.
At the end of the week of November 13-17, the VN-Index decreased by 0.49 points, equivalent to 0.04% compared to the end of last week to 1,101.19 points.
Foreign investors increased their net selling on HoSE with a value of VND1,346 billion last week, up 11% compared to the previous week. The net buying trend on HNX and UPCoM reversed when foreign investors recorded net selling values of VND118 billion and VND86 billion, respectively.
In the short term, Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Yuanta Vietnam Securities Analysis and Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Head of Macro and Market Strategy Department, VNDirect both said that many indicators show that the recovery momentum is showing signs of improvement.
Nguoi Dua Tin (NDT): Selling pressure in the last session of the week "blew away" the efforts to increase points in the previous 4 sessions, liquidity also increased dramatically with trading volume exceeding 1.25 billion shares. In your opinion, what is the reason?
Mr. Nguyen The Minh : I think that after a fairly rapid and strong increase of more than 100 points with many stocks increasing quite strongly from the bottom, many investors also made quite good profits, so the pressure to take profits is inevitable.
However, the group of stocks in the Vin family has been under strong selling pressure, causing the general market to fall sharply. The decline of this group of stocks stems from unconfirmed rumors related to this group and the market is overreacting to the information.
Third, the market often fluctuates strongly during or after the derivatives expiration session.
Regarding the signal from high liquidity in a sharp decline session, this is usually a not-so-positive signal that shows selling pressure is expanding.
The bright spot of the session was that there was no domino effect of simultaneous declines across all stock groups, but there was a clear differentiation. Although large-cap stocks were strongly sold, mid- and small-cap stocks maintained their performance. This partly shows that the demand for buying at low prices may still be waiting for the market to return to equilibrium to disburse.
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh : The market traded more cautiously in the session on Thursday with news of the expiration of the VN30F2311 futures contract along with the possibility of not passing the draft Land Law at this National Assembly session.
In the last session of the week, the indices adjusted strongly due to negative information related to Vin and profit-taking activities of investors.
Last week, 3 stocks belonging to Vingroup Corporation had the strongest impact on the general index with VHM (-7.9%), VIC (-6.1%), VRE (-4.8%) taking away 7 points from the VN-Index. On the contrary, large-cap stocks BID (+1.7%), MSN (+3.9%), MWG (+5.1%) and GVR (+2.3%) supported and restrained the market's decline.
VN-Index performance in the week of November 13 - 17 (Source: FireAnt).
Investor : Please tell us about the notable information next week and what is the direction of action for investors at this time, in your opinion?
Mr. Nguyen The Minh : In the context of the market psychology not really stable after the weekend session and many investors are still "looking for excuses" to sell, I think that information related to the Van Thinh Phat case can affect the market in the short term. However, this information may not have a strong impact as in 2022.
In case VN-Index still maintains the 1,080 point mark, the market's uptrend has not been violated and investors can safely hold on.
Next week, investors need to observe liquidity. If liquidity continues to be maintained, the index's upward momentum will be consolidated. At the same time, if the market-leading real estate group of stocks returns to the upward momentum with improved liquidity, it will help the market avoid selling pressure next week.
With the view that this is just a correction in the uptrend and the market has not broken the short-term uptrend, I recommend that investors stay calm and take advantage of the opportunity to disburse in the next trading week.
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh : In my opinion, the macro economy is showing a fairly positive improvement trend. Specifically, the domestic exchange rate pressure has cooled down significantly in the context of the market believing that the Fed will stop raising the operating interest rate. The cooling exchange rate has allowed for a "more relaxed" monetary policy.
Concerns about the risk of "domestic monetary policy reversal" have been removed and this will help improve investor sentiment and cash flow in the stock market in the final trading weeks of the year.
In addition to the exchange rate and monetary policy issues, many indicators show that Vietnam's growth recovery momentum is showing signs of improvement. In the past two consecutive months, exports have recorded positive growth again, with each month's growth rate higher than the previous month.
At the same time, other indicators related to industry and FDI capital flows also show positive improvement trends. In that context, I expect the fourth quarter business results of listed enterprises to recover positively and be a driving force for the stock market from now until the Lunar New Year.
Therefore, investors can take advantage of the corrections in the upward trend of the market to increase the proportion of stocks, prioritizing industry groups with prospects of positive business results improvement in the fourth quarter such as export groups (steel, wood products, furniture, etc.), public investment, industrial park real estate and securities .
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