Rubber export forecast to reach over 11 billion USD in 2025

The Vietnam Rubber Association predicts that 2025 is expected to be a year of stronger development for the Vietnamese rubber industry.

The industry's total export turnover is forecast to reach over 11 billion USD, growing about 10% compared to 2024, maximizing sustainable value from environmentally friendly and recycled raw materials.

Domestic and international rubber prices in the early part of 2025 will depend largely on the effectiveness of China’s economic policies. Economic stimulus measures, including direct financing packages for industrial infrastructure, have begun to yield positive results; in particular, China’s automobile industry, which is one of the largest rubber consuming sectors, is forecast to continue to grow in 2025 thanks to domestic demand and exports.

Vietnamese rubber exporting enterprises will be assured of increased demand from China and Southeast Asian countries, especially in the context of the gradual recovery of the global economy, Mr. Nguyen Duc Dung added.

Among all the markets importing Vietnamese rubber, China is still the leading market in the circulation of Vietnamese rubber products. In 2024 alone, China imported 2.4 billion USD of Vietnamese rubber, accounting for 70.5% of Vietnam's rubber export turnover.

Assessing the Chinese market, the key market for the rubber industry, Mr. Nguyen Duc Dung, Deputy General Director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), said that rubber prices in the early stages of 2025 will depend largely on the effectiveness of economic policies that China is implementing. Investment in industrial projects, especially in the tire and industrial equipment manufacturing sector, can increase demand for rubber materials, contributing to keeping rubber prices high in the short term.

Mr. Nguyen Duc Dung explained that rubber prices have remained high throughout the last months of 2024 thanks to support from both supply and demand. On the supply side, natural rubber production in leading producing countries tends to shrink. Meanwhile, global rubber consumption continues to increase, especially from China, the world's largest rubber importer. China has implemented expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to boost the economy, thereby creating expectations of a strong economic recovery, increasing rubber demand for manufacturing industries.

According to statistics from Vietnam Customs, in 2024, Vietnam's rubber export turnover will reach 3.4 billion USD, with an export output of 2 million tons of latex, down 6% in volume and up 18% in value compared to 2023; of which, the export turnover of rubber products will be 1.2 billion USD, up more than 13% compared to 2023. Meanwhile, rubber imports will be 3 billion USD, with an output of 1.9 million tons, and the surplus value from rubber exports in 2024 will be 400 million USD.

Mr. Le Thanh Hung, Chairman of the Vietnam Rubber Association, said that the main reason was the high export price of rubber. The average export price for the whole year reached 1,701 USD/ton, much higher than the average price in 2023 of 1,350 USD/ton. Therefore, although output decreased, the export value of rubber still increased compared to previous years.

Explaining this fluctuation in rubber prices, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) said that in 2024, global natural rubber output will reach 11.2 million tons, while demand for natural rubber will be 12.1 million tons. Thus, the global supply of natural rubber will be about 900,000 tons short of demand. The sharp increase in world rubber prices will not only have a positive impact on Vietnamese rubber prices but also help rubber companies grow well in terms of revenue and profit of Vietnamese rubber processing and exporting enterprises.

According to data from the International Trade Center (ITC), global trade in rubber and rubber products (HS code 40) is currently at 240-250 billion USD; of which, Europe is the world's largest import market for rubber and rubber products, reaching an average of 75 billion USD. Europe is also the world's largest export market for rubber and rubber products, accounting for 31-34.5% of total global rubber and rubber product exports. It can be seen that Europe is playing an important role in the global rubber and rubber product market. Manufacturers here import raw materials to serve the domestic industry as well as produce and export finished rubber products, said a representative of the Vietnam Rubber Association.

According to VNA

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/du-bao-xuat-khau-cao-su-nam-2025-dat-tren-11-ty-usd/20250118092218678