The price of USD in both free and bank markets has increased sharply in recent days. UOB forecasts the USD price to reach VND26,000 in the third quarter of this year.
UOB forecasts USD price to reach 26,000 VND in the third quarter of this year - Photo: QUANG DINH
USD price suddenly increased sharply
At Vietcombank, before the Tet holiday, the USD selling price was listed at 25,300 VND/USD. However, after Tet, the USD price increased and remained high.
On February 3, the USD selling price at banks increased to 25,500 VND/USD, on February 4, the USD price decreased to 25,360 VND/USD, but then on February 6 and 7, it increased to 25,450 VND/USD and 25,470 VND/USD.
The USD buying price is at 25,080 VND/USD today.
At Eximbank, the selling price of USD increased to 25,480 VND/USD, buying price was at 25,090 VND/USD.
At Sacombank, the USD selling price also increased to 25,480 VND/USD, the buying price was 25,100 VND/USD.
In the free market, the selling price of USD is 25,680 VND/USD, the buying price is 25,580 VND/USD.
The central exchange rate posted by the State Bank today also increased by 37 VND/USD, to 24,462 VND/USD.
Since the beginning of 2025, the central exchange rate has increased by about 283 VND/USD, equivalent to an increase of 1.1%.
UOB forecasts USD price could reach 26,000 VND/USD
Commenting on exchange rates, the Global Economics and Market Research Department of UOB Bank (Singapore) said that in the context of rising US inflation expectations, the USD is the main beneficiary of the "tariff risk premium".
“We forecast the USD index to rise to 112.6 by 2Q25. UOB’s forecast of a 25bp Fed rate cut this year is in stark contrast to the expected 75bp cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB), 100bp from the Bank of England (BOE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and 125bp from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) over the remainder of 2025.
Widening interest rate differentials will be a key driver of USD strength against other major currencies, further strengthening the USD in the first half of 2025. The EUR will also come under further pressure from the ongoing tariff threat from the US,” UOB said.
UOB also forecasts EUR/USD to lead the decline to 0.98 by Q2-2025, followed by GBP/USD falling to 1.20 and AUD/USD falling to 0.59 by the same period.
For the CNY, given China’s slowing growth and the risk of tariff escalation to UOB’s expected baseline of 25%, UOB also sees further depreciation as inevitable.
"We maintain our forecast that the USD/CNY exchange rate will continue to increase to 7.65 in 3Q25. Other Asian currencies will also follow this trend, with the highest exchange rates in 2025 recorded in 3Q25 at: USD/SGD (at) 1.4, USD/MYR 4.65, USD/IDR 16,900, USD/THB 35.40 and USD/VND 26,000 VND/USD," UOB forecast.
Regarding gold prices, UOB forecasts that the world gold price will reach 3,000 USD/ounce by the end of this year.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/uob-du-bao-gia-usd-co-the-len-26-000-dong-vao-quy-3-20250207201914154.htm
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