continue the tug of war

The strategy of buying stocks at the lower limit of the accumulation channel around 1,240-1,250 points and taking profits when the VN-index touches the upper limit of the accumulation channel at 1,290-1,300 points is still effective.

The strategy of buying stocks at the lower limit of the accumulation channel around 1,240-1,250 points and taking profits when the VN-index touches the upper limit of the accumulation channel at 1,290-1,300 points is still effective.

The VN-Index closed the week at 1,254 points, up slightly by 0.17%. The average trading value on all three exchanges was just over VND16,000 billion/session, about 20% lower than the previous trading week. If the type of transaction is negotiated, the market's matched liquidity decreased by -18.4%, to VND12,381 billion. The liquidity statistics for the whole month of October reached VND17,764 billion.

Foreign investors had a strong net selling week - 7,800 billion VND, focusing on VIB shares (-5,400 billion VND).

On the technical chart, the VN-Index fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the trading week and had difficulty breaking out of the near resistance at 1,263 points, corresponding to the 10-session moving average. The driving force supporting the index during the past trading week mainly came from large-cap stocks, especially some banking stocks with many positive information about dividend payments.

According to MBS Research experts, in the context of the market lacking supportive information and new variables about the US presidential election taking place next week, the market is likely to continue its tug-of-war trend in the coming trading week. Investors should also note the scenario that the index may retreat to deeper support levels (1,240 +/-5 points) to activate new demand.

Concerned about the rapidly increasing exchange rate pressure, Agriseco Research experts believe that this will have a certain impact on the stock market, affecting investor sentiment and is also one of the reasons why foreign investors returned to strong net selling in October. The increase in exchange rate will also affect the costs of businesses, especially those that depend on imported raw materials or have foreign currency loans in USD. Although the exchange rate has increased rapidly in the short term, with the FED starting the process of cutting interest rates, this increase may not last long. At the same time, with the State Bank reissuing treasury bills, the upward pressure on exchange rates has slowed down in the past week.

For the investment strategy in the coming period, Agriseco Research assessed that when VN-Index still maintains a narrow range of fluctuations in the context of a lack of supporting information, investors should maintain a cautious mindset and limit short-term transactions and T+ surfing when the market trend has not been clearly confirmed. With positive points from expansionary fiscal policies and loose monetary policies in the fourth quarter, VN-Index still has a lot of room to increase in the medium term.

In terms of waiting to buy, investors should take advantage of market corrections to attractive support zones (1240 +/- 5 points) to accumulate stocks in the long term, prioritizing stocks of leading enterprises in the VN30 group, enterprises forecasted to have positive profit growth in the fourth quarter and bright prospects in 2025.

In addition, for active investors, liquidity-attracting industries such as Banking, Securities, and Real Estate are also industries that can be considered for addition to short-term investment portfolios.

Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy, VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company, has an optimistic view on valuation, when looking at the business picture in the third quarter of 2024, recording total revenue growth of 8.7% and profit after tax growth of 18.7% over the same period, surpassing the growth rate in the first half of the year. A brighter business results picture will somewhat improve market valuation and support investor sentiment.

At the same time, Mr. Hinh believes that the exchange rate pressure may cool down in the second half of the fourth quarter when the Fed continues its path of cutting operating interest rates and foreign currency supply increases at the end of the year thanks to positive FDI and remittance flows. Therefore, he maintains that the 1,240-1,250 point area will be a strong support area for the VN-index.

Long-term investors can consider increasing their stock holdings if the VN-index corrects to the above support zone, prioritizing stock groups with positive business prospects in the last two quarters of the year, including banks, residential real estate, and import-export groups (textiles, seafood, and wooden furniture).

In fact, in recent months, the strategy of buying stocks at the lower limit of the accumulation channel around 1,240-1,250 points and taking profits when the VN-index touches the upper limit of the accumulation channel at 1,290-1,300 points is still effective.

The strategy of buying stocks at the lower limit of the accumulation channel around 1,240-1,250 points and taking profits when the VN-index touches the upper limit of the accumulation channel at 1,290-1,300 points is still effective.

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