Speaking at the 2023 Socio-Economic Development Forum on the morning of September 19, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thang - Director of the Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics said that the Vietnamese economy has overcome the most difficult time, but we also need to frankly admit that the difficulties cannot be overcome overnight.
According to Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thang, the economic growth rate has not yet reached expectations; the risk of collapse in the corporate bond market and real estate market cannot be ruled out; businesses have not been able to speed up the recovery of production and business; even at the end of the year when consumer demand increases, exports may still face difficulties if major markets in the world fall into recession...
Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thang - Director of Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics. (Photo: quochoi.vn).
To determine the growth scenario in the coming time, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thang suggested that delegates discuss and find practical, feasible, and breakthrough solutions to restore important growth drivers of the economy.
One of the major issues mentioned by the Director of the Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics is restoring investment capital flows. In the first half of 2023, the scale of investment capital from all economic sectors increased, but public investment capital increased the most, while investment capital from the FDI sector and the non-state economic sector had a much lower growth rate than the same period last year.
" Although the disbursement of public investment capital has improved somewhat, it is still very slow. The situation of "having money but not being able to spend it" is still common for projects at both central and local levels, creating chain reactions and directly affecting the investment motivation of the private sector ," Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thang stated.
Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thang acknowledged that it is not until now that we have realized and talked about this, but not much has been done to remove obstacles in complicated regulations and principles related to public investment.
The Director of the Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics said that monetary policy has its limits and should not be abused when there is not much room left to operate monetary policy, especially when the interest rate level is no longer a lifeline for businesses that are no longer healthy and do not need to borrow investment capital because they cannot find an output market for production and business.
" This requires a shift in focus to prioritize fiscal policy, combining the implementation of monetary and fiscal policies in a synchronous but focused manner, to direct capital flows to large infrastructure projects, national target programs, industries and sectors that are capable of early recovery and development, leading the economy, " said Mr. Thang.
Regarding the issue of fully assessing and proactively restoring domestic consumption, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thang said that even when the pandemic has passed, the lives of a part of the people are still very difficult, especially when workers continue to have their jobs cut and people in regions affected by extreme weather, natural disasters, and complex storms and floods are at risk of being left empty-handed.
Meanwhile, the post-pandemic boom in middle-class consumption and services has slowed down as people are cautious about spending, and with the real estate market frozen and the stock market falling, people, especially the middle class, have proactively limited spending to guard against risks.
The Director of the Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics stated that it is necessary to accelerate the recovery of the stock market, bond market and real estate market to have a spillover effect, create positive signals, restore confidence to help increase consumption and investment.
" Practice shows that in the end, it is trust, not administrative regulations, that determines the ability to control risks and stabilize the market during sensitive times of the financial and banking system ," Mr. Thang said, emphasizing the need for appropriate policies, clearly classifying subjects, establishing activities that need to be restricted or encouraged, and unified management instead of sudden changes, or applying a general policy to all, with unclear subjects, lacking specificity, or even just as a recommendation.
According to Mr. Thang, cleaning up the market needs to go hand in hand with creating a favorable and fair environment to encourage all economic entities to participate in production, business, and healthy competition.
Delegates attending the Forum. (Photo: quochoi.vn).
Regarding the removal of difficulties and restoration of production and business of enterprises, Mr. Thang said that after nearly 3 years of struggling and fighting the pandemic, the resources of enterprises have been exhausted, and recent events in the market continue to erode the confidence, spirit and will to produce and do business. The National Assembly and the Government have urgently issued many policies and solutions to remove barriers, difficulties and obstacles for enterprises.
Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thang emphasized that it is important to effectively organize and implement these policies and solutions into life.
" Here, there are two issues: on the one hand, it is necessary to unify the understanding and process to limit arbitrariness in implementation, creating convenience not only for businesses but also for officials and civil servants in handling administrative procedures. On the other hand, it is necessary to clarify the causes and have solutions to overcome the situation of pushing, avoiding, fear of mistakes, fear of responsibility leading to delays in the implementation of public duties, " said Mr. Thang.
Emphasizing that the 2023 Socio-Economic Forum will not only discuss immediate issues, but also solve immediate issues to lay the foundation for solving medium-term and long-term issues, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thang noted that improving labor productivity is the most fundamental method for Vietnam to realize the goal of rapid and sustainable growth, because this is associated with initiating two fundamental transformation processes of the economy.
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