Golden time to activate the North-South high-speed railway line
Vietnam's position and strength in 2027 - the expected time to start construction of the high-speed railway on the North-South axis - is enough to synchronously deploy this super transport infrastructure project.
 |
| If the speed is 350 km/h, the high-speed railway on the North-South axis will take passengers from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City in about 5.5-6 hours. |
“We have just sent the Pre-Feasibility Study Report of the North-South High-Speed Railway Project to members of the State Appraisal Council,” a leader of the Railway Project Management Board, Ministry of Transport (MOT) confirmed.
Optimal speed range
In the Pre-Feasibility Study Report currently being consulted by members of the State Appraisal Council, the consulting consortium TEDI – TRICC – TEDI SOUTH has proposed a high-speed railway project on the North – South axis passing through 20 provinces and cities on the North – South economic corridor with the starting point at Ngoc Hoi station, Thanh Tri district, Hanoi; the ending point at Thu Thiem station, Thu Duc city, Ho Chi Minh city.
The route passes through 20 provinces and cities: Hanoi, Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh, Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thua Thien Hue, Da Nang, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Khanh Hoa, Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan, Dong Nai and Ho Chi Minh City.
The project has a main line length of about 1,541 km, double track, 1,435mm gauge, electrified; infrastructure designed for a speed of 350 km/h, axle load of 22.5 tons/axle; arrangement of 23 passenger stations (planning 3 potential passenger stations); 5 freight stations; 5 passenger train depots, 4 freight train depots; 40 infrastructure maintenance stations.
Upon completion, the high-speed railway on the North-South axis will have the capacity to accommodate approximately 133.5 million passengers/year (for North-South direct trains); approximately 106.8 million passengers/year (for regional passenger trains); and freight transport of approximately 21.5 million tons of goods/year (not including the capacity of 18.5 million tons/year of the existing railway).
Regarding technology, the Project's Pre-Feasibility Study Report states that there are currently 3 types of technology in the world: rail technology, speed of about 250 - 350 km/h, average investment cost, chosen by most countries in the world; magnetic levitation technology, speed of about 600 km/h, high investment cost, not yet popular; tube technology, speed of up to about 1,200 km/h, very high investment cost, currently under trial construction.
Based on the level of reliability, efficiency, and experience of countries around the world, the consulting unit prepared a Pre-Feasibility Study Report recommending the selection of rail technology for the high-speed railway on the North-South axis.
Regarding transportation function, the Pre-Feasibility Study Report states that, in terms of optimizing transportation costs and promoting the advantages of each mode, freight transport, sea/river transport transports the largest volume at the lowest cost; railway is the method of transporting large volumes at average cost; road transport is the most convenient at high cost; air transport is the fastest at the highest cost.
For passenger transport, short distances under 150 km are dominated by roads; medium distances 150 km - 800 km are dominated by high-speed rail; long distances over 800 km are dominated by air and high-speed rail.
Based on international experience, the capacity of the current infrastructure system, and the results of transportation demand forecasts, the consulting unit recommends that the high-speed railway has the function of transporting passengers, meeting the dual-use requirements for national defense and security, and can transport goods when necessary; the existing North-South railway transports goods (heavy goods, bulk goods, liquid goods, etc.) and short-distance tourists.
Regarding the choice of design speed, the consulting consortium TEDI – TRICC – TEDI SOUTH assessed that the speed of 350 km/h is suitable for routes of 800 km or more, with many urban areas with high population density such as the North – South corridor of our country. The speed of 350 km/h is also more attractive and has the ability to attract a higher number of passengers than the speed of 250 km/h.
Although the investment cost for a speed of 350 km/h is about 8-9% higher than that for a speed of 250 km/h, if the investment is at a speed of 250 km/h, upgrading to a speed of 350 km/h when needed is difficult and ineffective.
Therefore, the consulting unit preparing the Pre-Feasibility Study Report recommends choosing a design speed of 350km/h for the high-speed railway on the North-South axis to meet the criteria of modernity, synchronization, long-term vision, efficiency, suitable for the geo-economic conditions of our country and the world trend.
According to TEDI – TRICC – TEDI SOUTH, the speed of 350 km/h and higher, the average station distance of 50 – 70 km is the world trend, considered suitable and effective. With this speed, the train travel time between Hanoi – Ho Chi Minh City is significantly shortened, to only 5 hours and 30 minutes.
This speed will also help the operator have more options for organizing train runs. In particular, on the Hanoi - Ho Chi Minh City route, the train can run for about 5.5-6 hours, or it can run for more than 10 hours. Passengers who want to take the train will choose that train.
“However, if the design speed is 250 km/h, the operating speed will be lower, only about 80% of the design speed at most, and the journey time on the same route will take more than 10 hours. With this time, passengers will choose air travel,” the consultant representative analyzed.
 |
| After the high-speed railway, the existing North-South railway transports goods (heavy goods, containers, bulk goods, liquid goods...) and short-distance tourists. |
Invest all the way
Progress of the North-South high-speed railway project– Submit investment policy to the National Assembly for approval at the October 2024 session.
– Bidding to select international consultants, conduct surveys, prepare Feasibility Study Report, in 2025-2026;
– Implement site clearance, bid for contractor selection and start construction of component projects of Hanoi – Vinh and Nha Trang – Ho Chi Minh City sections by the end of 2027;
– Start construction of component projects of Vinh – Nha Trang section in 2028-2029;
– Strive to complete investment in the entire route by 2035.
A very important content related to the North-South high-speed railway project is the investment phase plan.
In the Pre-Feasibility Study Report, the consultant studied two investment options: the entire route investment option, basically completed in 2035, and the two-phase investment option, basically completed in 2040.
According to the assessment, the investment plan for the entire route has the advantage of promoting efficiency and attracting all passengers traveling on all sections as soon as it is put into operation; the assessment of economic indicators shows that this plan is higher than the investment phase plan. The disadvantage of this plan is that the pressure on capital and implementation organization is higher.
Meanwhile, with the investment phase plan, the consulting unit believes that, during the phase, it can only handle passengers traveling on short routes (Hanoi - Vinh and Ho Chi Minh City - Nha Trang), not passengers traveling on long routes.
The advantage of this option is that the pressure on capital and implementation is not too great. The disadvantage of this option is that the first phase does not exploit the entire route, which will reduce the overall efficiency of the project investment.
“Preliminary assessment data shows that there is a possibility to balance capital for investment in the entire route. The organization of investment implementation will be overcome by mobilizing project management consultants, supervision consultants, and international law consultants to participate. Therefore, the Pre-Feasibility Study Report recommends an investment plan for the entire route,” the consulting consortium TEDI – TRICC – TEDI SOUTH emphasized.
With the above investment scale, the consulting unit preparing the Pre-Feasibility Study Report has reviewed the investment plan, preliminary technology, engineering, investment scale, referred to the investment rates of high-speed railway projects that have been and are being implemented in the world, preliminarily determining the total investment of the Project is about 1,713 trillion VND (about 67.34 billion USD).
Of which, site clearance costs are 5.88 billion USD; construction and equipment costs are 38.3 billion USD; vehicles are 4.34 billion USD; management, consulting, and other costs are 6.39 billion USD; provisions are 10.25 billion USD, and interest is 2.18 billion USD.
Because the high-speed railway line on the North-South axis is expected to be invested with a structural length of 60% bridge, 10% tunnel and 30% ground, the investment rate of the Project is about 43.69 million USD/km. This is the average level compared to some high-speed railway lines in the world with the same operating speed range when converted to the year 2024.
Specifically, the Nuremberg – Ingolstadt line (Germany) has an operating speed of 300 km/h, with an investment of 60.5 million USD/km; the LGV Sud Europe – Atlantique line (France) has an operating speed of 300 km/h, with an investment of 45.2 million USD/km; the Osong – Mokpo line (South Korea) has an operating speed of 305 km/h, with an investment of 53.6 million USD/km; the Beijing – Shanghai line (China) has an operating speed of 350 km/h, with an investment of 33.1 million USD/km; the Jakarta – Bandung line (Indonesia) has an operating speed of 350 km/h, with an investment of 52 million USD/km.
Of course, during the Feasibility Study Report preparation stage, after having survey data and detailed design, relevant agencies will continue to review and calculate the total project investment to ensure accuracy, completeness, and suitability with the technology and scale of the project investment.
The pre-feasibility study report also calculated the project's efficiency and showed that the project brought great economic and social efficiency, but in terms of financial efficiency, it was impossible to recover capital from railway business, so countries basically invested in public; some countries invested in public investment combined with calling on businesses to invest in purchasing vehicles for operation and exploitation.
According to a survey by consultants TEDI – TRICC – TEDI SOUTH, some countries invested in high-speed railways under the PPP method, but were unsuccessful, had to nationalize (Italy, Spain), or had to raise the level of state support for PPP projects to very high levels such as Taiwan (China).
Besides, some projects apply the PPP method, but the investment scope is mainly commercial areas, central stations or investment in vehicles and exploitation of some effective routes.
From international experience and assessment of domestic resources, the Pre-Feasibility Study Report recommends applying the form of public investment; during the construction and operation process, investment will be called for in service and commercial areas at stations, additional investment in means of transport for exploitation when needed; for the means of transport, after investment, the infrastructure exploitation will be transferred to enterprises to operate and repay the investment costs.
It should be added that, compared to the time when the North-South high-speed railway project was first submitted to the National Assembly in 2010, Vietnam's financial capacity conditions are now much more mature.
According to research by the World Bank (WB), this is the right time for Vietnam to invest in high-speed railways when the average income per capita in 2023 will reach 4,284 USD/person, higher than many countries when deciding to invest in high-speed railways and is expected to reach 7,500 USD by 2030 (the country's GDP is estimated at about 540 billion USD).
The high-speed railway line on the North-South axis is expected to have many types of tickets, in which the lowest ticket price will be equal to 60% of the average airfare of traditional airlines and low-cost airlines. This ticket price is considered competitive and suitable for people's ability to pay at the time the project is put into operation.
For the Project to be completed by 2035, it is necessary to arrange public investment capital continuously for 12 years, each year on average need to arrange about 5.6 billion USD equivalent to 24.5% of the annual medium-term public investment capital arranged in the period 2021-2025 and reduced to about 16.2% in the period 2026-2030 if the medium-term public investment ratio remains at 5.5 - 5.7% of GDP as present.
According to the assessment of public debt safety indicators when implementing the Project investment, by 2030, all 3 criteria: public debt, government debt, and foreign debt of the country are lower than the allowed level; 2 criteria on the country's foreign debt repayment obligations and budget deficit increase.
For the period after 2030, because the input data on GDP scale, budget deficit, interest rates, term structure, etc. are hypothetical, there is no official data yet.
“However, the assessment data does not take into account the project's contribution to GDP growth during the construction period, which according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment's calculations, will increase by about 0.97% per year compared to no investment in the project; revenue from land exploitation in TOD areas and commercial exploitation, estimated at about 22 billion USD, will contribute to improving all of these indicators,” the Pre-Feasibility Study Report said.
At the 10th Conference, the 13th Party Central Committee agreed on the investment policy for the entire high-speed railway project (350 km/h) on the North-South axis and assigned the Government Party Committee and the National Assembly Party Delegation to direct relevant agencies to urgently complete the dossier to submit to the 8th Session of the 15th National Assembly for consideration and decision to approve the policy, a number of specific mechanisms and policies to mobilize resources and investment procedures for the Project. 
Comment (0)