In case of continued dry weather during the grain growth period, especially with high air temperatures, Ukraine's harvest may decrease by 15% to 20%.
Most of Ukraine's winter cereals are in good condition, but yields could fall by up to 20 percent if dry and hot weather persists, agricultural scientists said on June 5, consulting firm APK-Inform reported.
According to a report by the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences of Ukraine, "in general, weather conditions during most of the spring season were favorable enough for the growth and development of winter cereal crops."
However, in case of prolonged dry weather during the grain growth period, especially when air temperatures are high, the harvest yield may decrease by 15% to 20%.
Scientists from the institute also warned that late-sown crops will face great risks when faced with extreme weather conditions.
Ukraine is a major grain grower and exporter in the world. However, since Russia launched a special military operation in February 2022, the country's grain production and exports have fallen sharply.
Reuters (UK) news agency quoted the official announcement of the Ukrainian Government, grain output from a record high of 86 million tons in 2021 has decreased to about 53 million tons in 2022. For the whole year of 2023, output is expected to decrease further to 44.5 million tons.
On June 2, the Ukrainian Agriculture Minister also forecast the 2023 winter grain crop to be around 18 million tons, or 20% lower than in 2022. Wheat usually dominates Ukraine's winter grain harvest and accounts for 95% of the country's total wheat production.
The new forecast comes amid repeated delays in the deployment of ships carrying Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products from Black Sea ports, especially in April and May.
In May, only 33 ships left Ukrainian ports, down 50% from April, and only three of them departed from the Pivdennyi port in Odesa – one of three Ukrainian ports included in the initiative.
In terms of volume, only 1.3 million tons of cereals and other food were exported in May, down 50% from the previous month.
According to UN Secretary-General’s spokesperson Stephane Dujarric, since May 24, the number of inspection teams at the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) has been reduced from three to two. The reduction in the number of inspection teams and the restriction on registration have reduced the average number of ships inspected per day to three.
He called it a “grave situation” with “global hunger hotspots on the rise and the specter of food inflation and market volatility looming in all countries.”
The UN Secretariat has made practical proposals to all parties and the organization will continue to implement its commitment to the parties to fully resume activities and sustain the initiative, Mr. Dujarric added.
In particular, the United Nations is seeking commitments to unconditionally allow ships to dock at all three ports under the initiative, increase the number of ships successfully inspected each day and the number of ships registered to avoid delays./.
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