China's record soybean imports push prices up

According to MXV, in the past trading week (November 4-10), investment cash flow tended to shift from safe haven markets to more profitable markets such as commodities.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), in the past trading week (November 4-10), investment cash flow tended to shift from safe haven markets to more profitable markets such as commodities. The overwhelming buying force pushed the MXV-Index up 0.63% to 2,177 points. Notably, in the agricultural market, the prices of soybeans and corn both skyrocketed nearly 4% amid lower-than-expected supply prospects and high demand. In addition, in the industrial raw materials market, the prices of two coffee commodities broke the previous consecutive weeks of decline.

Thị trường hàng hóa hôm nay 11/11/2024: Nhập khẩu đậu tương của Trung Quốc cao kỷ lục đẩy giá tăng mạnh

MXV-Index

China's record soybean imports push prices up

The agricultural market played a leading role in the overall market's uptrend last trading week with 5 out of 7 commodities increasing in price. Of which, soybean prices recorded an increase of more than 3.5%, extending the increase into the 5th session. The price trend was boosted by good demand prospects and somewhat "bullish" figures in the November WASDE World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report.

Agricultural product price list

China imported 8.09 million tonnes of soybeans in October as importers rushed to stock up ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration early next year, according to Chinese customs data. This was the largest import volume in the past four years, up 56% from 5.18 million tonnes in the same period last year. Cumulative soybean imports in the first 10 months of 2024 reached 89.9 million tonnes, up 11.2% year-on-year and almost equal to the total imports for the whole of 2023 of 99.41 million tonnes. If demand in the last two months of the year continues to be high, China's soybean imports could hit an unprecedented record this year. High demand from the world's largest soybean importer has been a factor supporting prices.

In addition, over the weekend, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its November WASDE report, causing many surprises in the market. USDA sharply cut its forecast for US soybean yield in the 2024-2025 crop year to just 51.7 bushels/acre, from 53.1 bushels/acre in the previous report, much lower than the market's forecast range. This brought US soybean production and ending stocks in the 2024-2025 crop year both lower than analysts' forecast ranges. With the prospect of a narrowing supply in the US, soybean prices were supported and soared after the report was released. This was the reason why buyers dominated the market last week.

Similarly, corn prices rose nearly 4% last week, also supported by the outlook for lower-than-expected supplies. The 2024-25 corn market forecast in this month’s report showed a downward trend in U.S. production and ending stocks, while global supplies are also subject to volatility due to changes in production and international trade. U.S. corn production is forecast to fall to 15.1 billion bushels, down 60 million bushels from the previous forecast due to lower yields. Although the decline was expected, the USDA’s larger-than-expected revision has fueled buying interest in corn prices.

In the domestic market, on November 7, the offering price of South American corn to our country's ports was relatively stable. At Vung Tau port, the offering price of corn for delivery in December 2024 fluctuated between 6,650 - 6,700 VND/kg. Meanwhile, for the delivery period in January next year, South American corn was offered at around 6,700 - 6,750 VND/kg. At Cai Lan port, the offering price was recorded 50 - 100 VND higher than at Vung Tau port.

Prices of some other goods