Robusta coffee prices turn down

At the end of the trading session, Arabica coffee prices decreased by 1% while Robusta coffee prices lost 0.47% of their value, closing at nearly 4,900 USD/ton.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the agricultural product price list was red in yesterday's trading day (January 16). All 7 commodities simultaneously decreased in price from 1 to 2.7%, in which, the soybean market was on a weakening trend after falling for three consecutive sessions. In addition, selling pressure also dominated the industrial raw material market, prices of many commodities such as coffee, palm oil, etc. all went down. At the end of the session, the MXV-Index fell slightly by 0.4% to 2,305 points.

Thị trường hàng hóa 17/1: Giá cà phê quay đầu suy yếu

MXV-Index

Favorable South American weather forecast, soybean prices down

At the end of yesterday’s trading session, the agricultural market was in the red as prices of all commodities fell. Notably, soybean prices fell for the third consecutive session after losing another 2.28% in yesterday’s session, closing at 1,019 cents/bushel ($374.4/ton). Positive weather forecasts in Argentina and forecasts of soybean supplies in Brazil put pressure on prices of this commodity.

Agricultural product price list

The focus of the soybean market yesterday was positive weather news in Argentina, one of the leading soybean producing countries in South America. After a long period of fighting dry weather, most of Argentina's main production areas are forecast to receive rainfall ranging from 25 mm to more than 100 mm from today, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. This will help soybean plants develop better, thereby improving productivity and output.

In addition, the positive outlook for soybean supply in Brazil in the 2024-2025 crop year is also contributing to the pressure on prices of this commodity. Consulting firm Agroconsult has raised its estimate of the country's soybean production to a record 172.4 million tons, up 200,000 tons from its previous forecast. According to Agroconsult, favorable climate conditions and good growing conditions in key production areas are factors that help boost productivity in major producing states such as Mato Grosso. The market expects a record soybean output from Brazil to be able to offset the decline in Argentina, thereby helping to ensure global supplies.

Meanwhile, in its daily sales report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed that private exporters sold 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China. This amount of soybeans is expected to be delivered in the 2024-2025 crop year. At the same time, in its weekly sales report ending on January 9, USDA announced that it sold 569,200 tonnes of soybeans for the 2024-2025 crop year, in line with the previous expectation of 300,000-800,000 tonnes and nearly double the previous week. However, this was a week of sales returning after the holidays, so the market had somewhat anticipated this large volume of sales. Therefore, the impact from the export data was not strong enough to create a significant reversal in price movements.

Coffee prices turn to weaken under supply pressure

According to MXV, at the end of yesterday's trading session, the industrial raw material market continued to witness a tug-of-war session with prices of commodities fluctuating in opposite directions. In particular, the prices of two coffee commodities turned to weaken after Brazil announced record export figures in 2024, which helped offset concerns about tight supply in Vietnam. At the close, Arabica coffee prices fell 1% while Robusta coffee prices lost 0.47% of their value, closing at nearly $4,900/ton.

Industrial raw material price list

Specifically, according to a report by the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE), in 2024, Brazil exported a total of 50.4 million 60-kg bags of coffee, including both green and processed coffee. This export volume marked an increase of nearly 30% compared to 2023 and was also the highest level ever recorded in history, breaking the previous record in 2020 with 44.7 million 60-kg bags. Of which, Arabica coffee was exported the most (accounting for 74.53% of total coffee exports) with 36.95 million 60-kg bags, equivalent to an increase of 20% compared to 2023. In addition, Robusta coffee exports (with a proportion of 18.5%) reached 9.36 million 60-kg bags, an increase of 98% compared to 2023.

In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands and the Southeast this morning (January 17) were recorded at 115,000 - 115,500 VND/kg, down 600 - 800 VND/kg compared to yesterday. However, compared to the same period last year, coffee prices have increased by more than 40,000 VND/kg.

Similarly, crude palm oil prices lost 1.5% of their value to $955.11/ton. The main reason for pressure on prices of this commodity in yesterday's session came from the less optimistic consumption outlook in India, one of the world's largest palm oil importers.

Specifically, according to Reuters news agency, Indian government officials said that the country's palm oil imports in January 2025 are expected to fall to their lowest level in nearly five years, due to a sharp decline in demand and buyers gradually switching from palm oil to soybean oil. According to officials' estimates, the country imported about 110,000 tons of palm oil in the first half of January and imports for the entire month are expected to reach only about 340,000 - 370,000 tons, the lowest level since March 2020.

Prices of some other goods