Stock market commentary 3/24: VN-Index may face correction pressure

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VN-Index heading towards resistance level of 1,360 points

The stock market experienced a volatile trading week, marking the first correction week after 7 consecutive weeks of increase. Investors received a lot of important information in March, from the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged to the derivatives maturity and ETF structure in the first quarter. Investors' caution is easily seen with the decline in liquidity. The market's weakness is more clearly revealed, no longer an "undercurrent" like in the previous week, the selling pressure is completely prominent, causing the VN-Index to correct 4/5 trading sessions last week. The lack of support from pillar stocks made the market struggle in its efforts to balance and retest the MA20 threshold in the trading session on March 20. The last time the index fell below the 20-day MA was in early February. Closing the trading week from March 17 to March 21, the VN-Index closed at 1,321.88, down -4.27 points (0.32%).

Last week's matched liquidity dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of the month but still maintained a +42.2% increase over the average level of 20 trading weeks. Accumulated for the whole trading week, the average liquidity on the HSX floor reached 859 million shares (-8.66%), equivalent to VND20,063 billion (-11.57%) in trading value.

Closing the trading week from March 17 to March 21, the VN-Index closed at 1,321.88, down 4.27 points.

The market opening was relatively balanced with 11 sectors adjusting compared to 10 sectors gaining points. Putting great pressure on the market and trading sentiment last week were sectors such as: Consumer food (-6.55%), Aviation (-2.16%), Steel (-1.73%), Chemicals (-1.72%),... On the other hand, going against the trend of adjustment last week included sectors: Plastics (+2.61%), Seaports (+2.41%), Industrial real estate (+1.18%),...

According to experts from Kien Thiet Securities Company (CSI), VN-Index had its fourth consecutive decline on the last trading day of the week, March 21. The decline was not large and narrowed significantly when closing close to the reference price. Liquidity continued to be weak and was the third consecutive decline. The matched volume decreased significantly compared to the average of 20 sessions (-15.2%), showing that investors were quite cautious.

On the weekly chart, VN-Index had its second week of decline, but the decline was not large (-0.32%) and the weekly trading volume also decreased compared to the previous week (-10.5%), reflecting the slowdown of the uptrend, but there were no worrying signs that the previous uptrend had been broken. The uptrend on the weekly chart is still expected to bring VN-Index towards the resistance level of 1,360 points. However, it is still possible that VN-Index will correct to the strong support zone of 1,286 - 1,290 points before returning to the main uptrend.

“At present, investors should still be cautious and patiently wait for the VN-Index to test the above support zone before strongly returning to a net buying position,” CSI experts noted.

VN-Index may face correction pressure

According to the analysis team of Saigon - Hanoi Securities Company (SHS), VN-Index still maintains short-term growth with the nearest support zone of 1,315 points, stronger support of 1,300 points. VN-Index may face correction pressure, retesting the psychological support zone around 1,300 points if it fails to maintain the nearest support zone around 1,315 points, corresponding to the average price of the current 20 sessions. The market has been under strong selling pressure, restructuring the portfolio of many stocks after a period of price increase lasting 7-8 weeks. Especially when VN-Index, VN30 encounter very strong resistance zones of 1,350 points, 1,400 points.

VN-Index may face correction pressure (Illustration photo: KT)

In the short term, with the VN-Index, this is not an attractive price range for further disbursement. Although the VN-Index is under relatively normal adjustment pressure under the rotational influence of many groups of codes in the market. However, many groups of codes have been under strong selling pressure, adjusting for a long time to relatively attractive price ranges and gradually starting to rebalance, such as technology, telecommunications, logistics, insurance groups...

“Many stocks are returning to a relatively reasonable price range, investors can gradually monitor and consider accumulating again. Positions that increase the proportion need to be carefully selected and evaluated based on the business results of the first quarter of 2025. Investors should maintain a reasonable proportion. The investment target is stocks with good fundamentals, leading in strategic industries, and outstanding growth of the economy,” said SHS experts.

Sharing the same view, experts from Bao Viet Securities Company (BVSC) said that the stock market continues to fluctuate sideways within a narrow range with differentiation between stock groups. This price movement is likely to continue in the final period of March. Cash flow will continue to rotate among stock groups to seek profits.

“For T+ trading activities, investors can still consider executing with available positions at the support zone of 1,315-1,320 points. For short-term positions in the portfolio, investors should pay attention to risk management with trailing stop orders or consider selling to take profit part of the position to realize profits when VN-Index approaches the resistance zone of 1,345-1,355 points,” BVSC experts recommended.