Supply is supplemented with positive signals, export coffee prices turn to decrease

Shortage of supply, coffee exports continue to have the opportunity to increase Arabica prices increase sharply, Vietnam's coffee exports are expected to increase at the end of the year

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), at the end of the trading session on November 29, coffee prices decreased by 0.23% for Arabica and 0.63% for Robusta. Positive signs from supply are the main cause of pressure on prices. However, the psychology of speculators expecting prices to increase still prevents prices from falling deeply.

Nguồn cung được bổ sung với tín hiệu tích cực, giá cà phê xuất khẩu quay đầu giảm

Prices of two coffee varieties fell slightly due to positive supply forecasts.

Brokerage hEDGEpoint recently raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 Arabica production from 47.63 million bags to 48.41 million bags, bringing the total coffee output for the upcoming crop to a record high of 74.24 million bags.

Meanwhile, in the closing report of November 28, the inventory of qualified Arabica on the ICE-US was at 293,564 60kg bags, an increase of 2,830 bags compared to the previous session. At the same time, the amount of coffee awaiting certification is currently at 26,555 bags.

In the domestic market, this morning (November 30), the price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands and the Southern provinces also recovered by 200 VND/kg. Accordingly, domestic coffee is being purchased at around 58,600 - 58,900 VND/kg.

In November 2023, the Vietnamese coffee industry exported 1.36 million tons.

However, the downward trend is not expected to last long because in general, the world's coffee supply is still in short supply. Regarding coffee exports, in the first 11 months of 2023, the Vietnamese coffee industry exported 1.36 million tons, worth an estimated 3.5 billion USD, up 3.4% over the same period in 2022. Low supply in Vietnam is the reason why coffee prices remain high.

Regarding key markets, according to the Import-Export Department - Ministry of Industry and Trade, in October 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports to the US reached approximately 1,760 tons, worth 6.31 million USD, up 11.2% in volume and 22.2% in value compared to the previous month.

In the first 10 months of 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports to the US reached approximately 93.84 thousand tons, worth 224.97 million USD, down 3.5% in volume and 4.3% in value over the same period last year.

In October 2023, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee to the US reached a record high of 3,586 USD/ton, up 9.9% compared to September 2023 and up 45.1% compared to October 2022.

Vietnam is exporting Robusta, Arabica and processed coffee varieties to the US market. Of which, the proportion of Robusta coffee exports accounted for 79% of the total turnover in the first 10 months of 2023, higher than the proportion of 68.4% in the same period last year.

In contrast, the proportion of Arabica and processed coffee exports to the US decreased, accounting for 10.46% and 10.54% respectively in the first 10 months of 2023, lower than the proportions of 16.97% and 14.63% in the first 10 months of 2022.

According to data from the US International Trade Commission, this market imports coffee from more than 100 countries and territories around the world. In particular, the main sources of coffee for the US include: Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam... While coffee imports from many markets decreased, the US increased coffee imports from Vietnam in the first 9 months of 2023, an increase of 13.9% in volume and 16.8% in value over the same period last year, reaching 127.14 thousand tons, worth 303.77 million USD. Vietnam's coffee market share in total US imports increased from 8.9% in the first 9 months of 2022 to 11.6% in the first 9 months of 2023.

The Import-Export Department forecasts that Robusta coffee prices will remain high as the global market has become more positive after reports of many major economies in the world growing above expectations and oil prices falling sharply.

In addition, the downward trend in global inflation has caused investors to shift speculative capital to derivatives exchanges, supporting prices. Coffee prices also received support from a report that ICE inventories continued to decline.

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