Vietnam's Economy 2024 from the Perspective of Experts

(Dan Tri) - Nearly 20 experts and scientists attending the macro forum "Vietnam's economy overcomes headwinds" on the morning of January 9 at the Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City outlined the economic outlook for 2024.

The 12th Macroeconomic Forum was organized by the Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City (HUB), with the media support of Dan Tri Newspaper. The forum began with a macroeconomic report presented by Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Duc Trung, President of the Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City (HUB). He reviewed the milestones of the Vietnamese and world economies in 2023 with unexpected developments, but also many bright spots.

The State Bank's four adjustments to the operating interest rates, credit growth in 2023 at 13.5%, although not as expected, is among the highest in the world, has created momentum for 2024. Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Duc Trung suggested solutions to increase trade promotion, replicate the Ho Chi Minh City model (livestream sales festival, online shopping and entertainment festival), maintain a 2% VAT reduction not only for the first 6 months of 2024... to boost spending growth; implement the "flying with the eagles" strategy in attracting FDI, continue to promote the success in public investment disbursement in 2023 to promote investment.

He shared solutions to boost exports by focusing more on markets with potential for economic growth such as India instead of focusing on Europe and the US. In the service sector, it is necessary to focus on key cities with the potential to strongly develop tourism, ensuring favorable factors such as seaports, airports, transport infrastructure, etc.

Sharing at the forum, Dr. Vo Tri Thanh assessed that the most difficult period of the domestic financial and monetary market has passed, but there are still some challenges in terms of interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, bad debt, and people's confidence in the financial market. The brightest spot is public investment in 2023, when 95% of the public investment plan was completed, disbursing 386,000 billion VND, with many large projects inaugurated in 2023. In production, agricultural exports have changed positively; the real estate market has shifted but quite slowly, more solutions are needed to stimulate demand, support businesses... so that the overall picture has changed more positively in 2024.

Prof. Dr. Nguyen Khac Quoc Bao - Deputy Director of Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics mentioned bright colors for the economy in 2024, in the context of the world's inflation trend decreasing, the price level going down. Many indicators show that the total demand of the world economy and Vietnam will be better. The recovery of tourism; positive changes in public investment. There is still a lot of room for expanding monetary policy. Resolute policies to remove difficulties for the real estate market... contribute to helping the market recover, investors and cash flow return more in 2024.

Sharing his perspective on the export market, Prof. Dr. Nguyen Trong Hoai - Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Asian Economic and Business Studies ( JABES) - Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics - assessed that exports have recovered, Ho Chi Minh City is a bright spot in export activities in 2023. However, according to him, Vietnam's exports still depend on traditional markets (Europe, America), partners from India, Korea, Japan... are very potential, businesses should consider restructuring the export market to increase opportunities in the world market.

Prof. Dr. Su Dinh Thanh - Director of Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics proposed to focus on innovation, develop science and technology 4.0, prepare resources to welcome "eagles" in the field of technology, semiconductor chips, expecting 50,000 skilled engineers to welcome "eagles" in this field by 2030. To have an innovative, creative, high-tech economic model, according to him, there needs to be stronger, longer-term policies, so that the growth model changes significantly.

Dr. Tran Anh Tuan - Head of the HCM City Enterprise Management Innovation Board, National Assembly Delegate - highly appreciated Vietnam's success in 2023 in the context of complicated world developments. Accordingly, domestic interest rates are well controlled, exchange rates fluctuate but are generally stable. Investment in establishing enterprises has increased but total investment capital per enterprise has decreased by half, cash flow into the economy is still slow... Therefore, according to him, it is necessary to improve policies so that capital is injected into the economy faster, thereby effectively stimulating the economy.

The forum " Vietnam's economy overcomes headwinds " brings together scientists and economic experts from all three regions of the North, Central and South, currently working at prestigious universities and organizations. Many speakers used to be advisors to the Prime Minister on economic management policies.

The forum also attracted many leaders of associations; banks; businesses; scientists, lecturers, researchers at economic universities in Ho Chi Minh City. The sharing and discussion at the workshop is the basis for advising the State Bank, government agencies and ministries in policy making and management; banks and businesses have more information, develop business strategies to respond promptly to the uncertain conditions of the world economy, towards sustainable development.

Dantri.com.vn

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