Hoarding, speculative trading and delayed government action were major factors leading to the rice price crisis in Japan.
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| Even after the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture decided to release rice reserves on February 7, rice prices did not decrease. (Source: VNA) |
Since the summer of 2024, Japanese rice prices have soared following an advisory agency's warning of a possible major earthquake in the Nankai Trench, leading to panic buying among the public.
Initially, the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture thought that rice prices would fall when the new crop was harvested in the fall. However, up to now, Japanese rice prices are still at record levels.
The Japanese Ministry of Agriculture later changed its explanation, saying that the high rice prices were due to "reluctance to sell" and market speculation.
The 2024 rice harvest is expected to total 6.79 million tons, 180,000 tons more than the same period last year, according to the agency. However, the volume of new rice guaranteed by major rice dealers is less than last year.
By the end of 2024, the actual figure will be less than 210,000 tons, and by the end of January 2025, it will be less than 230,000 tons.
According to the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, the difference between the estimated and actual figures is due to speculation by small and medium-sized traders when buying new rice and farmers' reluctance to sell.
Shoichi Fujihira, president of the Nittano Farm agricultural cooperative in Isumi, Chiba Prefecture, noticed something unusual last fall.
Mr. Fujihira asserted that construction companies and people who called themselves “rice traders” drove trucks and bought up all the new rice. Among them, one person bought the rice with the intention of reselling it at a much higher price.
Mr Fujihira checked a website apparently run by the man, which offered rice for about 700 yen ($4.65) more than the farm price.
Since the scale of such “resale” transactions is not known, it is uncertain whether they can be considered the “main culprit” for the increase in rice prices.
After deciding to release rice reserves, the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture hoped that speculators would quickly sell off their stocks and rice prices would start to fall. However, even after the ministry decided to release rice reserves on February 7, prices did not fall.
"Is the reason for the sharp rise in rice prices not speculation but simply a shortage of rice?" an official in Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration asked. Some experts believe the agriculture ministry may have overestimated production for the 2024 crop.
Many farmers shared that the crop condition index, which is the basis for the estimate, is “overvalued” and that harvests may be lower than expected. It is also possible that consumers, restaurants, distributors and others are trying to build up more inventory in preparation for a rice shortage that could hit as early as the summer of 2024.
If all Japanese people tried to stock up on "inventory" for two weeks, the demand for rice would be around 300,000 tons. This is larger than the government's plan to release rice reserves of 210,000 tons.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/khung-hoang-gia-gao-nhat-ban-nguyen-nhan-do-dau-306078.html
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