Vietnamese goods exported to the US in 2025 need to be more cautious about the country's new trade policy, along with increased risks from trade defense cases.
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| In 2024 alone, Vietnamese goods will face 32 new foreign trade defense cases initiated from 12 markets. (Source: Getty) |
Increased risk
In 2024, the US will be Vietnam's largest export market, with a turnover of goods reaching 119.6 billion USD, an increase of more than 23% compared to 2023, according to data from the General Department of Customs.
Currently, more than half of Vietnam's export value to the US is high-tech products, including consumer electronics, smartphones, garments and footwear, while the rest are other products such as furniture and agricultural products.
In 2025, the US will continue to be the largest and most important export market, playing a decisive role in our country's export growth. However, exports to this market are facing more risks, as President Donald Trump will increase tariffs on imported goods from China, Mexico, Canada, etc. and is concerned about the US's large trade deficit with its partners.
Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), said that international trade is being threatened by the emergence of unilateralism. Instead of opening up and reducing barriers, the motto of this ideology is to build more barriers and impose high taxes on imported goods.
In the immediate future, President Donald Trump has signed an official decree imposing a 25% tax on imported goods from Canada and Mexico (currently the tax is postponed for negotiations between the parties), and a 10% tax on imported goods from China from February 4. This raises concerns about the risk that the US will take similar actions against countries with large trade surpluses.
“The trade war was launched right from the first days of Mr. Trump's new term, showing that unilateralism will still be a trend that has a great impact on international trade in the coming time,” Mr. Hai analyzed.
Countries with which the US has a trade deficit are advised to prepare for scenarios facing tariffs from the US.
Looking back over the past years, typically in 2024, although the Vietnam-US trade flow is still accelerating, the number of US trade defense cases against Vietnamese goods has increased rapidly.
In 2024 alone, Vietnamese goods will face 32 new foreign trade defense cases initiated from 12 markets (this number is more than double that of 2023). It is worth noting that 1/3 of these were initiated by the US. By the end of 2024, there were 273 trade defense investigations against Vietnamese goods in 25 markets.
Mr. Do Ngoc Hung, Commercial Counselor, Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US, analyzed that with the third largest trade deficit (after Canada and Mexico), Vietnam is at risk of having to pay taxes on goods exported to this market.
In the regular Government meeting in February 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh directed that the current world context is unpredictable, directly affecting our country, especially exports, production, business, and the macro economy. Therefore, the Prime Minister asked delegates to closely forecast and analyze the situation and emerging issues.
Proactive response
New US tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China threaten to fuel inflation, spark a trade war, stifle growth and hurt global trade.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade has proposed two scenarios for exports to the US this year. Accordingly, the optimistic scenario is that the US maintains its current tax policy on Vietnamese goods. In the trend of shifting supply chains, Vietnam can completely welcome investment flows to increase exports.
The second scenario, if the tariff impact is severe, could impact the global economy, causing Vietnam's goods exports to be affected.
For this scenario, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will report to the Government to support production and export enterprises in diversifying markets.
According to Mr. Kevin Morgan, Chairman of the US-Vietnam Business Council, Vietnamese enterprises should prepare and plan for many different options to continue doing business effectively in the US market in 2025. Accordingly, proactively grasp market information and US trade policies to have an action plan suitable for the new situation.
Vietnam has an increasingly important position in the supply chain, an increasingly large production scale, and deep integration into the global economy. In the face of the new US trade policy, major export industries need to do a good job of combating fraud in origin of goods and trade defense. Most importantly, businesses need to raise awareness so as not to be caught up in stories related to trade defense tax evasion.
“Enterprises should focus on competing on product quality, instead of competing on price, because low-priced products are likely to be investigated for anti-dumping. Along with that, it is necessary to increase the localization rate, increase the use of domestic raw materials, or use imported raw materials from countries that are not investigated for applying trade defense measures, thereby avoiding the risk of being investigated for anti-tax evasion,” Ms. Nguyen Yen Ngoc, Head of the Foreign Trade Defense Handling Department (Trade Defense Department - Ministry of Industry and Trade) noted.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/hang-viet-truoc-nguy-co-gia-tang-phong-ve-thuong-mai-tu-my-303721.html
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