Two scenarios for how AI impacts global trade growth

In an optimistic scenario, real global trade growth could increase by nearly 14 percentage points by 2040 if AI adoption is widespread and productivity growth is high.

According to a new report by the World Trade Organization (WTO) Secretariat on the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on world trade, in an optimistic scenario, global real trade growth could increase by nearly 14 percentage points by 2040 if AI adoption is widespread and productivity growth is high.

In contrast, in the conservative scenario of uneven AI adoption and low productivity growth, trade growth is forecast to be just under 7 percentage points.

High-income economies are expected to record the largest productivity gains, while low-income economies have better potential to reduce trade costs.

The report, titled “Trading with Intelligence: How AI Shapes and Is Shaped by International Trade,” explores how AI can reduce trade costs, reshape trade in services, increase trade in AI-related goods and services, and redefine economies’ comparative advantages.

The report also highlights growing divergence between approaches to AI regulation, impacting commercial opportunities for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises.

By reducing trade costs, AI can help level the playing field for developing economies and small businesses, helping them overcome trade barriers, enter global markets and participate in international trade, the report said.

The report notes that AI could transform the model of services trade, especially digitally delivered services, which are forecast to see cumulative growth of nearly 18 percentage points in the optimistic scenario.

The report also provides an overview of government initiatives taken at the domestic, regional and international levels to promote and regulate AI, and highlights the important role of the WTO in facilitating AI-related trade, ensuring trustworthy AI and promoting global regulatory coherence.

In the foreword to the report, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated: “The report aims to open a discussion on how the WTO can promote the development and deployment of AI, mitigating associated risks and concerns about regulatory divergence across countries. In this regard, the two guiding questions the report seeks to address are: How can the WTO ensure that the benefits of AI are widely shared, and how can global coordination be achieved to address the challenges posed by AI.”

Source: https://nhandan.vn/hai-kich-ban-ve-cach-ai-tac-dong-den-tang-truong-thuong-mai-toan-cau-post846933.html