NDO - In the context of the general birth rate across the country tending to decrease sharply, especially in urban areas, the orientation of "not disciplining party members who have a third child or more" is a very urgent policy.
Correct, appropriate and practical policy
The Party Central Committee Office has just issued a document announcing the Politburo's opinion on the preliminary review of the implementation of Resolution 21/2017 of the Party Central Committee (12th tenure) on population work in the new situation and amending Party and State regulations related to population policy.
In the notice of the Party Central Committee Office, the Politburo assigned the Central Inspection Commission to advise and amend the regulations of the Central Executive Committee, the Politburo, and the Secretariat related to handling violations of population policy and proactively amend Instruction No. 05/2022 of the Central Inspection Commission in the direction of not disciplining cases of giving birth to a third child or more, in line with amending legal regulations (not retroactively handling cases that have been disciplined).
The Politburo assigned the National Assembly Party Committee and the Government Party Committee to coordinate in leading and directing the acceleration of the progress of drafting and submitting the Population Law to the National Assembly for approval in the spirit of the Resolution of the 13th National Party Congress in 2025. In the immediate future, the Politburo requested to urgently review and amend legal documents with regulations on the number of children, to be completed in the first quarter of 2025.
According to Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu, former Director of the Institute of Population and Social Issues (National Economics University, Hanoi), this is a very urgent, urgent and very correct policy.
The country currently has more than 5.6 million party members. According to Professor Cu, the regulation "not to discipline party members who have a third child or more" not only affects this group of people but the scope of influence is overall.
Speaking to Nhan Dan Newspaper reporters, Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu said that the proposal to relax population policy to maintain replacement fertility has been proposed by experts for many years. Therefore, the policy of "not disciplining Party members who have a third child or more" is a correct and appropriate policy, based on domestic practice and international experience. Not only that, the Politburo also requested to speed up the progress of drafting the Population Law; urgently review and amend legal documents with regulations on the number of children.
Particularly exciting is that the Politburo agreed to build the National Target Program on Population and Development for the 2026-2035 period.
According to Mr. Matt Jackson, UNFPA Representative, many countries in the world, including Vietnam, are currently witnessing a trend of declining fertility rates. According to a recent UNFPA report, two-thirds of the world's population now lives in countries with fertility rates below replacement level. This is not a temporary phenomenon but a new reality for more and more countries.
Replacement fertility falls to historic low
Mr. Le Thanh Dung, Director of the Department of Population, said that for three consecutive years, the national fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level (2.1 children/woman). According to the results of the Mid-Term Population and Housing Survey recently announced by the General Statistics Office, the Vietnamese fertility rate in 2024 is 1.91 children/woman, the lowest level recorded in history. This is the lowest decline in history and the trend is forecast to continue to decline in the coming time.
According to the General Statistics Office, in 2024, Vietnam's total fertility rate will be lower than the average of Southeast Asian countries (2 children/woman). Vietnam's fertility rate will only be higher than that of four countries in the region: Brunei (1.8 children/woman), Malaysia (1.6 children), Thailand and Singapore (1 child/woman).
According to the 2024 survey results, the fertility rate in urban areas is 1.67 children/woman, lower than that in rural areas (2.08 children). In rural areas, from 2022 onwards, the fertility rate has always been higher than the replacement fertility rate, but in the past 2 years, the fertility rate has begun to decrease sharply and has been slightly lower than the replacement fertility rate.
The number of localities with fertility rates below replacement level is on the rise. Specifically, in 2019 there were 22 provinces, in 2023 there were 27 provinces and by 2024, this number will be 32 provinces. In 2022, Vietnam's total fertility rate will reach 2.01 children/woman, in 2023 it will be 1.96 children/woman and will continue to decrease to 1.91 children/woman in 2024.
There are significant differences in fertility rates between socio-economic regions in the country. The Northern Midlands and Mountains and the Central Highlands are regions with high fertility rates, higher than the replacement level (2.34 children/woman, 2.24 children/woman, respectively). The two regions with low fertility rates and lower than the replacement level are the Southeast and the Mekong Delta (1.48 children/woman and 1.62 children/woman, respectively).
According to the 2021 population change survey, there is a warning that Vietnamese men and women do not want to get married, the late childbearing model is becoming more and more popular, and the birth rate is different between regions...
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Mr. Le Thanh Dung, Director of the Department of Population, said that for three consecutive years, the national birth rate has fallen below the replacement level (2.1 children/woman). |
Director Le Thanh Dung emphasized that if the birth rate decreases and lasts for a long time, it will directly and deeply affect the population size and structure and leave many consequences such as labor shortage, rapid population aging and population decline... greatly affecting the sustainable development of the country.
In the forecast of Vietnam's population until 2069, in the low fertility scenario, Vietnam will face the risk of a negative average population growth rate (-0.04%) in 2059. Meanwhile, in the medium fertility scenario, 10 years later (2069), this number will only reach 0.
Comprehensive policies are needed to increase replacement fertility.
Professor Cu emphasized that "not disciplining party members who have a third child or more" is only a policy solution, a necessary condition, but not enough to raise the birth rate and ensure "maintaining the replacement birth rate".
To have a sufficient policy to ensure maintaining replacement fertility, according to Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu, Vietnam needs other solutions.
First, there must be policies to encourage and support families to have children and raise young children (diversify forms of economic support such as subsidies, personal income tax exemptions, exemptions and reductions in contributions to community funds, etc.).
Raising and educating children is not only the right of the family but also the right of the community and the state. Therefore, the state and the community need to share the responsibility and costs of caring for and raising children right from the time they are fetuses. “Many localities have good policies such as exempting tuition fees from preschool to high school – this is a reasonable policy, both emotionally and logically correct,” said Professor Cu.
Second, we need to build service facilities for families with young children, such as better and higher quality nurseries and kindergartens so that people can feel secure in sending their children. Services such as ready-made food, domestic help, etc. also need to be developed to reduce housework time and reduce the burden on women in the family with childcare.
Third, it is necessary to have flexible working hours for pregnant women and couples with young children so that parents can have flexible working hours and time to take care of their children. Childcare facilities need to have flexible childcare regimes regarding pick-up and drop-off times.
Fourth, our country has more than one million infertile couples. Therefore, the government should not only invest in assisted reproductive technology but also provide financial support and reduce infertility treatment costs so that young couples have the right to become parents.
“We need to combine many measures from economic support, housing, service facilities… to be able to increase the birth rate and maintain the replacement birth rate, not just a policy of “not disciplining party members who have a third child or more” to change immediately,” Professor Cu emphasized.
According to information from the Ministry of Health, the Department of Population has completed the proposal to develop the Population Law to report to the Government; is focusing on perfecting the institution, specifically completing this draft law to submit to the National Assembly at the 10th session (2025) to bring Resolution No. 21-NQ/TW into practice.
The Population Law drafted by the Ministry of Health is designed in a way that does not stipulate the number of children for each couple but instead gives the right to decide and the responsibility to each individual and couple. This is considered a fundamental change in the Population Law compared to the Population Ordinance.
Source: https://nhandan.vn/khong-xu-ly-ky-luat-dang-vien-sinh-con-thu-ba-tro-len-la-chu-truong-cap-thiet-post861114.html
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