In 2024, world gold prices fluctuated violently like never before, at one point reaching a historical record high of nearly 2,800 USD/ounce, then plummeting to 2,550 USD/ounce in just one week and showing signs of recovery.

At 9:00 p.m. on November 21 (Vietnam time), the world gold price was trading around 2,664 USD/ounce.

By 2025, many forecasts say that precious metal prices will face an uncertain future due to the global economic recession and the impact of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policy, along with a stronger USD.

Gold investors need to prepare for a bumpy ride and significant downside risks in 2025, analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, told The Economic Times . BMI noted that gold has been falling since Donald Trump was elected US president and the precious metal’s recovery is not strong at present.

Meanwhile, the supporting factors for gold are increasingly exhausted.

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Gold is negatively impacted by economic and political risks in 2025. Photo: HH

In addition, during his election campaign, Mr. Trump repeatedly affirmed that he would impose heavy taxes on goods during his term. High taxes will increase the strength of the USD, which is completely disadvantageous for gold prices.

BMI argues that the Fed's goal is to cut 125 basis points, bringing the interest rate target to 3.5% by the end of 2025. However, whether the Fed's goal is successful or not depends on inflation, the labor market and economic data - factors that make interest rate cuts uncertain.

Furthermore, a strong US dollar could spell trouble for gold prices. While BMI expects the US greenback to remain strong initially, it could weaken as global risk assets perform well.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East conflicts and rising trade disputes under President Trump, will provide some support for gold as a safe haven. However, these factors are not strong enough to boost gold prices in 2025.

While many analysts expect inflation to decline in 2025, which would benefit gold investors, trade-related risks could fuel localized inflationary pressures. The overall outlook suggests that gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge will slow.

BMI forecasts that gold prices in 2025 will fluctuate in the range of 2,200 to 2,600 USD/ounce until the end of the first quarter. Equivalent to domestic gold prices (including taxes and fees) in the range of 68.3 to 80.7 million VND/tael.

Contrary to BMI's forecast, Goldman Sachs, a global financial group, believes that gold prices will rise to $3,000/ounce in 2025 due to strong buying demand from central banks and interest rate cuts by the Fed.

This figure is equivalent to the domestic gold price of about more than 93 million VND/tael.

Goldman Sachs explained that a second Trump term is likely to benefit gold prices, especially amid heightened geopolitical tensions and growing concerns about the financial sustainability of the US.

The escalation of trade tensions under President Trump could reignite gold investors’ interest, analysts said, noting that central banks may choose to buy more gold as a safe-haven asset.

In 2025, domestic gold prices will still be affected by world gold prices. However, when domestic gold supply is not large enough, combined with increased demand from investors, domestic gold prices will increase sharply.

Domestic gold prices will be greatly affected by world gold prices unless global political and economic risks cause world gold prices to fluctuate strongly. For example, world gold prices fell sharply right after Mr. Trump was elected president, domestic gold prices also plummeted; or gold prices increased sharply again due to Russia-Ukraine tensions, domestic gold prices immediately jumped up.

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