After the US-Russia peace talks in Saudi Arabia, the world looks forward to a lasting agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine, but a series of challenges still lie ahead.
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| US and Russian delegations actively seek solutions to end the Ukraine conflict, February 18 in Saudi Arabia. (Source: CGTN Radio) |
In recent weeks, the world has been abuzz with a series of events surrounding the US-Russia-Ukraine triangle, taking place from the Diriyah Palace (Saudi Arabia) to the Oval Office (USA). Shortly after the historic meeting between the US and Russian delegations in Riyadh, President Donald Trump had a “war of words” with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky right at the White House.
Behind the scenes, a series of questions are being raised about the future of transatlantic relations and the adjustment of US-Russia relations.
Amidst many changes, the most concerning thing is the peace process in Ukraine, which is being promoted and promoted by countries and international organizations. So what are the potential obstacles that could hinder efforts to end the conflict in the Eastern European country?
Difficult disagreement
The most important factor shaping the future of the conflict is the territories controlled by each side. In September 2022, Russia annexed Donetsk and Lugansk, along with Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Previously, Moscow also annexed Crimea in 2014. On the Ukrainian side, President Zelensky clearly stated that to end the war, Moscow must withdraw all forces and weapons and restore Kiev's internationally recognized borders.
Crimea is one of the major sticking points, as Ukraine continues to view it as illegally occupied territory and demands its full return.
Moreover, the Russian-controlled Ukrainian territories have large reserves of rare earth metals and natural resources. President Zelensky has proposed a territorial exchange, offering to return Kursk in exchange for Ukrainian territories occupied by Moscow.
However, Russia flatly rejected this proposal. It can be said that if the future of these territories cannot be decided, it will be difficult for the parties to reach a sustainable peace agreement.
| President Vladimir Putin said on March 6 that Russia would seek a peace deal with Ukraine to ensure long-term security and would not withdraw from territories it had controlled. |
Another issue that could undermine the peace process is Ukraine’s possible accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia has long opposed the bloc’s expansion and sees Kiev’s entry as a direct threat to the security of its western border. It should be noted that former US President Joe Biden supported Ukraine’s NATO membership, but the Trump administration has taken a different view.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth initially dismissed the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. However, Trump’s special envoy to Kiev has said that Ukraine’s membership is still under consideration. If the dispute over Ukraine-NATO relations is not resolved, Russia could refuse to participate in the negotiations, and even if there is an agreement, the possibility of breaking it is very high.
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| According to information from the White House on March 10, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sent a letter of apology to his US counterpart Donald Trump for the incident that occurred in the Oval Office on February 28. (Source: NPR) |
From politics to economics
Another major challenge is ensuring that key stakeholders accept the terms negotiated by the US and Russia. The European Union (EU) has been a constant influence on developments in Eastern Europe, regularly expressing concerns about the threat from Russia and actively supporting Kiev through military aid.
The bloc has imposed 15 rounds of sanctions aimed at crippling Russia’s economy. Under the Joe Biden administration, the US and EU have pursued a united front against Moscow. However, President Trump has taken a different approach, excluding the EU and Ukraine from direct talks in Saudi Arabia.
| Speaking at the Munich Security Conference 2025, President Zelensky affirmed that "There can be no decision on Ukraine without Ukraine. Europe must have a seat at the negotiating table when decisions related to Europe are made." |
This has raised concerns, forcing the bloc to hold emergency meetings to discuss response moves.
EU members then agreed to continue providing military aid to Ukraine, take a more active role and propose an EU plan to resolve the conflict.
Thus, the EU and Ukraine, having the same front and position, will find it difficult to accept being left out of negotiations that directly affect the future of the continent’s security. Therefore, to be widely accepted, the future peace agreement needs to include the presence and interests of all parties involved, not just the US and Russia.
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| Western sanctions on Russia have created a glut of crude oil, forcing Moscow to cut production and undermining one of its main sources of revenue. (Source: Getty) |
In addition to military and political factors, economic factors play an important role in shaping the outcome of peace negotiations, specifically the economic sanctions imposed by the West on Moscow. These measures have had a profound impact on the Russian economy, causing its GDP to shrink by 2.1% in 2022. The civilian economy is struggling with soaring inflation and high interest rates, and is also under pressure from increased defense spending, which currently accounts for nearly 7% of GDP.
In addition, sanctions have created a surplus of crude oil, forcing Russia to cut production and undermining one of its main sources of revenue. The instability caused by the decline in Russian oil exports has also caused volatility in global markets, pushing oil prices higher amid supply concerns. Therefore, without moves to ease sanctions pressure and soothe the Russian economy, the West will have a hard time lobbying Moscow to come to a unified stance to end the conflict.
In the context of prolonged tensions and tough stances from many sides, US-Russia peace talks could contribute to resolving the Ukraine issue.
However, the major obstacles remain related to territorial disputes, Ukraine-NATO relations, the role of the EU and sanctions. To reach a sustainable solution, the parties must not only resolve these challenges, but also make concessions to each other for the sake of common peace and security.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/bon-nut-that-troi-buoc-da-m-phan-ho-a-bi-nh-ukraine-307104.html
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