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Steel industry growth trend is uncertain

Báo Đầu tưBáo Đầu tư21/08/2024


Domestic steel production and consumption have received more positive signals, but this recovery is uncertain due to the oversupply of some domestic steel products and the influx of imported steel.

Steel production and consumption are showing signs of recovery.
Steel production and consumption are showing signs of recovery.

Bright signals from production and consumption

According to the report of the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), the production and consumption of steel products in July 2024 showed positive signs, with crude steel production reaching 927,180 tons, up 2.6% over the previous month and up 17% over the same period in July 2023.

Production of finished steel products of all kinds reached 2.527 million tons, up 2.59% compared to June 2024 (production of all steel products recorded growth, except for hot-rolled coil HRC, down 5.43%) and up 5.2% compared to the same period in 2023. (production of construction steel and galvanized steel products still maintained growth rates of 8.9 and 30.3%, respectively).

The remaining steel products are hot rolled steel (HRC), cold rolled coil (CRC) and steel pipes, down 5.1%, 11.7% and 5.6% respectively.

In the first 7 months of the year, crude steel production reached more than 12.8 million tons, up 21% over the same period in 2023; Production of finished steel products of all kinds reached 16.959 million tons, up 9.4%. Of which, the production of metal-coated and color-coated steel reached the highest at 29.2%, construction steel 14.6% and HRC 2.9%; Production of cold-rolled steel coil and steel pipes both recorded negative growth of 14.9% and 1.1%.

Domestic crude steel consumption and exports reached 12.41 million tons, up 17% year-on-year in 2023.

Finished steel sales reached 16.75 million tons , up 14.3% compared to the first 7 months of 2023. CRC cold rolled coil growth reached the highest at 40.6%, followed by galvanized and color-coated steel and construction steel, however, steel pipe exports decreased by 1.2% and HRC decreased slightly by 0.8% compared to the same period in 2023.

The export sector also recorded a slight growth. In 7 months, exports reached 7.97 billion USD, of which iron and steel exports of all kinds were approximately 7.5 million tons, worth 5.475 billion USD, up 16.6% and 9.8% over the same period. Exports of steel products reached 2.5 billion USD, up 6.1%.

Great pressure from imported goods

Last year, the billet production capacity of the entire Vietnamese steel industry was about 28 million tons/year, of which hot rolled coil (HRC) was 7-8 million tons/year, construction steel (about 14 million tons) ensured 100% for domestic consumption and partly for the export market. This year, the industry is expected to produce about 30 million tons.

Production capacity is large, even surplus for some types, but a large amount of imported steel continues to flood the domestic market, causing difficulties for businesses' consumption.

According to the General Department of Customs, in the past 7 months, the country spent 10.557 billion USD to import steel of all kinds and steel products. The steel industry's trade deficit after 7 months was nearly 2.6 billion USD.

Of which, 9.5 million tons of steel were imported, worth 6.91 billion USD, up 42.2% and 23.4% respectively over the same period, and 3.64 billion USD of steel products were imported, up 25%.

According to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), with bright spots in the socio-economic situation in July and the first 7 months of 2024, many sectors achieved higher results in July than the previous month and better results in the first 7 months compared to the same period in 2023, industrial production maintained a growth trend.

At the same time, legal documents related to the real estate market, land law... taking effect can create momentum for the steel market to recover positively, the construction industry is expected to achieve high growth prospects compared to the same period in the 2020-2024 period, but there are still many difficulties and challenges, making the growth trend of the steel industry uncertain.



Source: https://baodautu.vn/xu-huong-tang-truong-nganh-thep-chua-chac-chan-d222733.html

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