How will the aluminum and steel export industry be affected if Mr. Trump imposes a 25% tax?

In case the US applies tariffs on all aluminum and steel products, Vietnam's export products still have many opportunities because the production capacity of US enterprises cannot immediately meet demand.

Steel businesses may face challenges when the US imposes taxes - Photo: AN

That is the opinion of Mr. Do Ngoc Hung - Trade Counselor, Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US - when answering Tuoi Tre Online about US President Donald Trump's announcement that he will impose a 25% tax on aluminum and steel imported from other countries.

Billion USD turnover, without Hoa Phat

There is still no further information on whether the additional 25% tax on steel and aluminum will apply to all countries, nor is the legal basis clear. However, with these two items still subject to 10% and 25% tax rates when exported to the US, the imposition of taxes is considered to have an impact on the steel and aluminum manufacturing and export industries in the near future.

According to Mr. Hung, US customs statistics show that in 2024, Vietnam will export about 983 million USD worth of steel and steel products, an increase of nearly 159% compared to 2023; while aluminum exports will be 479 million USD, an increase of 9.5%.

However, some large-scale steel manufacturing enterprises in Vietnam such as Hoa Phat Group have stopped exporting steel to the US and expanded exports to more than 10 other markets since the country applied trade defense investigation measures.

The Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US said that applying an additional 25% tax on imported aluminum and steel will negatively affect countries exporting aluminum and steel to the US.

In particular, since 2018, many countries and territories have replaced China's position in exporting this item to the US, such as Canada, Mexico, EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Brazil.

As a result, the US currently depends on imported steel for 12-15% and aluminum for 40-45%.

Mr. Hung said that if the US applies this to all imported goods, Vietnamese products will still have the opportunity to continue exporting when the capacity of US steel and aluminum manufacturers cannot immediately meet the demand.

However, the profit margin of enterprises will decrease. At the same time, the difficulty of exporting to the US will affect the supply chain, as countries seek to export to other countries, including Vietnam.

Many steel companies returning to the domestic market have caused countries to increase protectionism, also affecting steel exporting countries like Vietnam.

What should Vietnamese aluminum and steel businesses do?

The imposition of tariffs is also expected to increase inflation in the US as aluminum and steel are basic commodities with high demand in this country. Therefore, Mr. Hung believes that with the advantage of Vietnamese goods being competitive prices and good quality, it will support the US economy , help reduce inflation, and support the foreign trade structure of the two countries.

The Vietnam Trade Office in the US recommends that Vietnamese businesses need to assess the situation to have appropriate business strategies, expand exports to markets that have FTAs ​​with Vietnam, and avoid dependence on one market.

Comply with US regulations on origin and always be ready to fully participate in the explanation process of US investigation agencies on trade defense cases, when there are currently 34 trade defense lawsuits on steel products and two investigations on aluminum.

Therefore, Mr. Hung recommended that businesses need to closely coordinate with the Ministry of Industry and Trade (Department of Trade Defense) and diplomatic missions abroad to closely monitor the situation to have appropriate responses.

How does the US metals industry respond?

Regarding the reaction of the United Steel Workers Union, representing 850,000 workers in the metal, mining, pulp and paper, rubber, chemical, glass industries..., it said that imposing a 25% tax on goods from Canada and Mexico is not the solution.

Because Canada is one of the US's important partners in national security, and has close links with the US economy, the USW also calls for eliminating unfair competition, dealing with global overcapacity and unfair trade into North America by applying targeted tariffs.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/trump-dinh-tang-25-thue-nganh-nhom-thep-xuat-khau-se-anh-huong-gi-2025021020521514.htm