Container warehouse at Tan Vu port. (Photo: Tuan Anh/VNA)

During his campaign for US President, Donald Trump repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs of 10-20% on imports from all countries and up to 60% on imports from China.

Analysts say it is likely that the “tariff man” will use executive powers, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which allows the US President to respond to emergencies through economic measures, to act immediately after taking office on January 20, 2025.

Potential tariffs by the Trump administration are expected to have a major impact on global trade, and many US trading partners are preparing for the worst.

Expert Larry Summers, a Harvard University professor and former Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton, warned that Mr. Trump's trade policy, if implemented, could lead to the risk of a trade war, damaging supply chains and increasing global production costs.

Speaking on CNN on November 13, Professor Summers said: "If President-elect Trump does what he said during the campaign, there will be a much larger inflation shock than in 2021."

Analysis from Oxford Economics suggests that Trump’s proposed tariff hikes and immigration cuts could push U.S. inflation higher than expected. This inflation could impact the value of the dollar internationally, impacting countries that rely heavily on trade with the U.S. and thus slowing global growth.

A second term for President Trump would see increased tensions between the US and China, particularly over trade and technology. Tariffs on all Chinese imports and restrictions on Chinese investment would accelerate the decoupling of the world’s two largest economies, at a cost that promises to be “very high”.

For countries in the Asia-Pacific region, Mr. Trump's policies are expected to cause turmoil in economies that depend on both the US and Chinese markets.

Vietnam is not "outside"

Vietnam is one of the countries with a trade surplus with the US. According to the General Department of Customs, from January to October 2024, the US was Vietnam's largest export market with an estimated turnover of 98.4 billion USD, accounting for 29.3% of the country's total export turnover and an increase of 24.2% over the same period last year.

The most exported items to the US market include seafood reaching 1.5 billion USD, plastic products reaching 2.4 billion USD, wood and wood products reaching 7.3 billion USD, textiles reaching 13.3 billion USD, footwear 6.8 billion USD, computers, electronic products and components reaching 19.1 billion USD, phones of all kinds and components reaching 8.7 billion USD, machinery, equipment, spare parts reaching nearly 18 billion USD, etc.

If President-elect Trump pursues a protectionist policy, the world’s largest economy will likely impose higher tariffs on products from Vietnam to reduce the country’s trade deficit. This will put pressure on Vietnamese exporters and increase the cost of products imported into the US from Vietnam.

But despite the uncertain outlook from US politics, many experts believe that Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, will remain a stable region for economic growth and strong trade opportunities.

Add new opportunities

Vietnam is currently one of the US’s major trade and investment partners in Southeast Asia. Rising global trade tensions create opportunities for Vietnam to receive new investment flows, as global businesses seek to diversify production to hedge against geopolitical risks.

The Trump administration has often prioritized bilateral agreements. Therefore, Vietnam can exploit the negotiation opportunity to increase exports of advantageous products while importing complementary input materials from the US (such as wood, steel, etc.).

As the US seeks to move away from its dependence on cheap goods from China, Vietnamese businesses can take advantage of the opportunity to "fill the gap," producing goods that the US lacks and that are difficult to ensure domestic production.

However, according to some experts, Vietnam also needs to pay attention to opening its market further to US goods to reduce the existing trade deficit.

The Vietnam Trade Office in the US cited information on the US Department of Commerce's website saying that the US manufacturing industry has identified a range of products, including agricultural products, processed foods and nutritional supplements, with significant export growth potential if Vietnam's tariffs can be further reduced.

In addition to the tax issue, the US Department of Commerce also mentioned Vietnam's technical barriers, recommending a review to facilitate imports to reduce the trade deficit with the US.

Recently, the US Department of Agriculture also commented on opening the door for some agricultural products of this country to enter Vietnam.

The "America First" policy will certainly have some impact, but it may not be too negative.

Based on the foundation of the US-Vietnam bilateral relationship over the past 30 years and the complementary structure of goods between the two countries, it can be believed that changes in tariff policy by the Trump administration will not derail trade between the two countries in the near future./.

According to vietnamplus.vn