World gold price developments over the past year - Photo: NAM TRAN - Source: Kitco - Graphics: TUAN ANH
Although the price is high, it has triggered people's demand to buy gold because of the expectation that the price will continue to increase. Many experts warn of the potential risks of a gold price "bubble".
Why is gold so expensive and what is the forecast for gold price trends in the future are things many people want to know.
Higher than world gold price by 5.57 million VND/tael
The domestic gold price reached the milestone of 100 million VND/tael for the first time in history on March 19 after the world gold price skyrocketed to 3,044 USD/ounce. Converted according to the exchange rate listed at the bank, the world gold price is equivalent to 94.43 million VND/tael.
At the time when the world gold price soared to an all-time high at noon on March 19, many gold brands simultaneously raised the gold price to 100 million VND/tael or close to this level.
At Bao Tin Minh Chau Company, the price of gold rings reached 100 million VND/tael while the buying price was 98.45 million VND/tael. Compared to the end of March 18, the selling price of gold at Bao Tin Minh Chau Company increased by 1.2 million VND/tael in both buying and selling directions.
Meanwhile, at Bao Tin Manh Hai Company, the selling price of gold rings at noon on March 19 was up to 100.25 million VND/tael, an increase of 1.15 million VND/tael compared to the evening of March 18. The buying price was 98.65 million VND/tael, an increase of 1.2 million VND/tael. This is also the highest price on the market.
SJC Company also increased the price of gold bars and gold rings. From 98.2 million VND/tael on the evening of March 18, the price of gold at SJC Company on March 19 increased to 99.1 million VND/tael, 99.4 million VND/tael and 99.5 million VND/tael at the end of the day. Compared to March 18, the selling price of gold at SJC Company increased by 1.3 million VND/tael.
Meanwhile, the buying and selling price of SJC gold bars is equal to the selling price of gold rings, and the buying price is 100,000 VND/tael higher than the buying price of gold rings, at 97.9 million VND/tael. At PNJ Company, the selling price of 9999 gold rings jumped to 99.6 million VND/tael and then closed at 99.9 million VND/tael at the end of the day. The buying price is 98.1 million VND/tael.
Thus, compared to the converted world gold price, the domestic gold price is 5.57 million VND/tael higher. This difference is more than 4 times higher than about 10 days ago.
Hanoi residents lined up to buy gold on the day the gold price reached a record 100 million VND/tael - Photo: NGUYEN HIEN
High prices due to psychology and supply
The unstoppable increase in gold prices in recent days has stimulated people's demand for gold. According to Tuoi Tre's records on March 19, the number of people coming to buy gold at SJC Company is quite large despite the vertical increase in gold prices. Some people want to buy several taels, but others only buy 1 tael. Many people believe that the gold price will continue to increase, so this is still an opportunity to "surf".
Previously, the gold supply at SJC Company was quite abundant, you could buy as much as you wanted, but in recent days, due to the high demand for gold, SJC Company does not have enough quantity to meet the demand.
According to the records, people who want to buy gold bars must write a form to leave information and wait for the company to contact them because the company does not have gold available to meet the demand immediately. The company also limits the maximum amount of gold purchased to 2 taels per person, instead of selling according to demand as before.
Speaking to Tuoi Tre, a representative of SJC Company said that currently the waiting list to buy gold is as long as several sheets of A4 paper, or hundreds of people. Although there are still sellers, the number of buyers is not enough to balance the situation.
Therefore, based on the number of purchases, the company will sell the same amount in the order of registration. This policy has been applied in the past few days when the price of gold increased "crazily" beyond all predictions.
Meanwhile, expert Nguyen Ngoc Trong - director of New Partner Gold Company (NPJ) - said that due to limited domestic gold supply, large units selling in small quantities has pushed up the psychological factor in the market, especially for gold rings because for a long time gold companies have not been allowed to import raw gold through official channels.
Not to mention that recently, buying gold has been profitable while other investment channels have been sluggish, causing people to pour more capital into gold, even buying regardless of the price.
"Domestic gold prices have increased in parallel with world gold prices. Recently, world gold prices have increased rapidly, exceeding 3,000 USD/ounce and have not shown clear signs of adjustment.
With the current supply and demand situation, the possibility of domestic gold prices creating a higher difference compared to world gold prices if there is no intervention from the State Bank. In case the State Bank sells gold to intervene like last year, it will only affect the price of gold bars, while the price of gold rings will continue to benefit," Mr. Trong commented.
People buy and sell gold in Ho Chi Minh City on the afternoon of March 19 - Photo: THANH HIEP
There are risks with every opportunity.
Regarding the risks of buying gold at this time, Mr. Trong said that there is still a possibility of higher peaks, but because the gold price has increased too much, it will have to be adjusted. In this uptrend, investors who "enter and exit" at the right time will still make a profit.
"The current fluctuation in gold prices is an opportunity, but risks will also come along with it. Especially when the world gold price turns down, causing investors who bought gold at low prices before to sell to take profits," Mr. Trong analyzed.
Expert Tran Duy Phuong said that due to limited supply, SJC Company is buying and selling sparingly, limiting to 2 taels/day and selling to only about 100 customers per day. Gold shops that list prices lower than SJC Company's have taken the opportunity to push gold prices up in recent days.
Currently, the psychological factor is very large and in the market, there has been a price difference between SJC Company and the free market of about 500,000 - 1 million VND. Especially when the world gold price increases too quickly, making people impatient to buy. But by the afternoon of March 19, when the world gold price had a time of adjustment, domestic selling pressure appeared again.
Forecasting the gold price in the coming days, expert Tran Duy Phuong said that currently the domestic gold price is being pushed up and increasing faster than the world gold price.
"The world gold price is too hot, like an inflated bubble that doesn't know when it will burst. If the gold price bubble bursts, it will cause the domestic gold price to decline. At that time, there will be a situation of competing to sell, causing the domestic gold price to fall without stopping. But now, because the gold price is increasing, gold holders do not want to sell," said expert Tran Duy Phuong.
According to expert Tran Duy Phuong, buying gold at this time is likely to hit the peak (buy at a high price and then suddenly drop) because once the world gold price has increased too much, it will drop very sharply when it decreases. The domestic gold price is 5.57 million VND/tael higher than the world gold price, not to mention the difference between buying and selling prices of up to 1.5 million VND/tael, so the peak situation will soon happen.
The world gold price has increased rapidly since mid-January. Compared to mid-January, the world gold price has increased by about 340 USD/ounce, equivalent to 10.6 million VND/tael. Meanwhile, the domestic gold price has increased by 14.2 million VND/tael, bringing the selling price of gold from around 86 million VND/tael to 100 million VND/tael.
Compared to the rate of return from other investment channels such as savings, USD, stocks, etc., the gold channel has brought much higher profits if calculated from the beginning of the year until now. Buying 1 tael of gold at the beginning of the year at a price of about 8.6 million VND/tael, up to now, I have made a profit of 1.4 million VND/tael.
Sell half a tael/person, buy at record price to…keep as a souvenir
On March 19, in Hanoi, people lined up from morning to afternoon to buy gold on Tran Nhan Tong Street. According to Tuoi Tre, the number of customers increased dramatically from the morning of March 18 when the price of gold continued to skyrocket. On average, each customer had to wait 2 hours for their turn to buy gold.
The line kept getting longer and longer, as one person finished buying, another person joined in. To avoid speculation, the gold shop on this street has limited each person to half a tael. Customers need to bring a hard copy of their ID card or the VNeID app when making a purchase or sale.
More than 95% of customers come to make purchases, with only a few sellers throughout the day. According to the store's staff, each customer has their own purpose. Some people come to buy because they see the high price of gold, and are afraid that the price will continue to increase. Meanwhile, many people come to buy gold at exactly 100 million VND/tael for the purpose of... keeping it as a souvenir. This price is an unprecedented milestone in the trading history of this precious metal.
Each person is only allowed to buy half a tael, so Ms. Thu Minh (Nam Tu Liem District, Hanoi) had to mobilize her husband to line up to buy enough to make a full tael. Ms. Minh is worried that inflation and world instability will cause the price of gold to increase even more, causing money to lose value, so she uses her spare money to buy gold as a storage channel.
"When the gold price dropped last week, I was able to buy 3 taels of gold for 91.4 million VND/tael. The price has been too high for the past two days, but I still have to buy more," said Ms. Minh.
The demand for gold is increasing while the supply is limited, many "brokers" are also taking advantage to make money. Gold shops continuously use loudspeakers to warn people not to buy gold from floating sources or to trade on the sidewalk to avoid "losing both money and health".
On the afternoon of March 19, while many people rushed to buy gold, an old man brought 100 taels to sell at a record price - Photo: NAM TRAN
Don't "bet" too big on gold in the current context
Mr. Shaokai Fan, director of Asia-Pacific (excluding China) and director of global central banks at the World Gold Council, said that gold prices have now reached an all-time high.
In addition to macroeconomic factors such as inflation concerns and the direction of monetary policy that have anchored gold prices at high levels, experts from the World Gold Council pointed out that another reason comes from concerns about uncertainty related to US tariff policies.
In Vietnam alone, Mr. Shaokai Fan said rising gold prices could reduce demand for gold jewelry, but demand for gold as an investment could continue to increase with the desire to protect against inflation and market instability.
Giving advice to investors in the gold market at this time, Mr. Shaokai Fan said gold can play a role in many investment portfolios as a way to hedge against risks amid uncertainty and improve asset diversification.
“In today’s uncertain global environment, the World Gold Council believes all investors should consider the value that gold can add to their portfolios,” said Shaokai Fan.
However, international experts also recommend that gold should still be in the investment portfolio but one should not "bet" too much on it in the current context.
In a recent interview with Kitco News - a world leader in providing information on gold prices, Chantelle Schieven, head of research at Capitalight Research, said she still maintains her original forecast that gold will reach a peak of $3,200 an ounce this year.
While Schieven is bullish on gold this year, she said it is difficult to predict how a recession will impact the precious metal. During economic downturns, investors often sell gold to raise capital and cover losses in the stock market, she explained.
Gold prices are now up more than 15% this year, but US stock markets have fallen.
Looking ahead, Schieven predicts the global economy will continue to struggle as President Donald Trump continues to push for US-centric policies, including tariffs on imported goods, which have sparked a global trade war.
While some international experts warn that gold's price increase may slow down when diplomatic tensions ease and inflation is controlled. In addition, a stronger US dollar and the Fed's unclear interest rate policy may also limit gold's increase.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/vang-cham-moc-100-trieu-dong-luong-can-than-bong-bong-gia-vang-20250320083010715.htm
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