Ukraine lost too many tanks in Kursk

This is a worrying development for Ukraine, as it needs to maintain an advantage of destroying at least three times as many Russian tanks to weaken its enemy forces.

A destroyed Ukrainian M-1 in Kursk. Photo: Russian state media

Since Russia expanded its war with Ukraine 37 months ago, the Russian military has lost at least 3,200 tanks, while Ukraine has lost about 950, according to open-source analysis group Oryx.

This means that the overall loss ratio is 3.4-1 in favor of Ukraine. However, at Kursk, the Russians destroyed 66 tanks, while the Ukrainians only destroyed 55, which is a 1.2-1 ratio in favor of Russia.

Before the start of the Kursk offensive last August, Ukraine maintained a favorable tank kill ratio. But by last week, Ukraine was forced to withdraw from the area, while Russia not only held its line but also destroyed or captured more tanks than Ukraine lost.

Ukraine entered the war in February 2022 with about 1,000 tanks, mostly Soviet-era T-64s and T-72s. After losing 950, Kiev received another 850 tanks from its Western allies and drew from its own reserves, allowing it to maintain at least 1,000 tanks.

Russia, which started with around 3,500 tanks, is believed to have lost 3,200 in the war. Although the Russian defense industry produces only 500-600 new tanks a year, not enough to make up for the losses, Moscow still has thousands of older tanks such as T-62s and T-54s from the 1950s and 1960s to redeploy.

This trend has made Ukraine's tank force increasingly modern with the German Leopard 1, Leopard 2 and American M-1 lines. In contrast, the Russian army has had to put into use hundreds of old tanks, reducing the level of modernization.

However, this did not help Ukraine gain the upper hand in Kursk, which became an "armored vehicle graveyard" due to the narrow battlefield space, high troop density and the heavy presence of Russian drones, directly attacking Ukraine's supply lines.

According to the Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight, a 1-1 loss ratio is a disadvantageous scenario for Kiev. With smaller initial reserves and limited ability to replace tanks, Ukraine is losing its advantage in a war of attrition with Russia.

Ngoc Anh (according to Forbes, Kyiv Independent)