President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet for the second time on November 15, on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in San Francisco, USA this week (Photo: Reuters).
Ahead of the October 15 meeting between Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi on the sidelines of APEC, observers, as usual, have made many comments on the significance of this event for US-China relations. But perhaps no one can say it more clearly than the people involved.
“Since you took office as president, we have maintained contact through online meetings, phone calls and letters,” Xi said during his first meeting with Biden in Bali, Indonesia, in late 2022. “But no format can truly replace face-to-face meetings.”
The world has continued to experience many changes over the past year. While the conflict in Europe shows no signs of ending, another war has broken out in the Middle East and threatens to spread. Tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait continue to simmer. The economies of both the US and China are not in ideal condition.
Meeting in such a context, the two leaders of the US and China will have no shortage of difficult issues to discuss in order to better understand each other and find ways to manage bilateral relations. However, experts say that expectations should not be set too high because the two still have many differences.
However, in the special relationship between the world's two largest powers, the meeting itself is a positive sign, according to experts.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden smile during their face-to-face meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, on November 14, 2022 (Photo: AFP).
A year of ups and downs
The last time the two leaders met, the pressure was somewhat off. Xi had just been re-elected as China’s Communist Party chief, while Biden and the Democrats had performed better than expected in the midterms. Both men shared big smiles for the cameras.
And that meeting would have also put US-China relations back on a positive track, especially after tensions surrounding the visit to Taiwan in August by then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, according to Charles Morrison, an expert at the East-West Center in Hawaii.
"It's not because there were any concessions after that meeting, but mainly because there would be more regular contacts between the two countries," Mr. Morrison told Dan Tri reporter. "But then everything went off track because of the balloon incident."
The Pentagon has now concluded that the Chinese balloon was not gathering intelligence while flying over the US, but it was too late. The balloon dragged down relations between the two countries when it was shot down by US aircraft.
By mid-year, the Biden administration had already taken the initiative to reach out to Beijing with a visit by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, according to Zhiqun Zhu, professor of political science and international relations at Bucknell University. Several administration officials and congressional delegations have since visited China.
China has seized the opportunity to restore bilateral exchanges. Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Washington from October 26-28 is widely seen as setting the stage for Biden and Xi’s upcoming meeting in San Francisco.
"The upcoming planned summit will be an extreme effort by both sides to stabilize relations," Professor Zhu told Think China .
The Chinese balloon incident in US airspace in February this year dragged down US-China relations (Photo: AP).
Each side has its own calculations.
Of course, for the upcoming meeting to become a reality, it must be consistent with the calculations of strategic interests of the US and China.
"The motivation driving the US to the upcoming meeting is the same as what drove them to the Bali meeting, which is to prevent US-China competition from becoming a potential source of conflict," Professor Sneider told Dan Tri reporters, adding that the motivation is even greater than a year ago because the world's crises are distracting the US.
During the meeting, Mr. Biden is expected to offer reassurances that while imposing export controls on semiconductor chips, the United States is not trying to wage “economic war” with Beijing.
“The United States does not seek a decoupling from China,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said recently when meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. “We seek a healthy economic relationship with China that benefits both countries over time.”
In addition, one of the priorities the US wants to achieve in the upcoming meeting is the resumption of defense dialogue that has been interrupted since Ms. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
A display of a computer chip and the word "Self-Reliant" at the International AI Conference in Shanghai in July. Beijing has set a goal of high-tech self-sufficiency, as the United States imposes some export controls on semiconductor technology to China (AP).
The fact that General Ly Thuong Phuc - who is on the US sanctions list - has no longer held the position of Minister of Defense since late October is also believed to be able to reopen the door to military dialogue, according to Professor Sneider.
Beijing has asked the US to lift sanctions on General Li as a condition for resuming dialogue with the head of the Pentagon, General Lloyd Austin. China has not named a new defense minister.
Lower-level military ties have resumed in recent months. For example, Admiral John Aquilino, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, met with Gen. Xu Qiling, deputy chief of the Joint Staff Department of China’s Central Military Commission, in Fiji in August.
“There will also be some discussion about the situation of world crises such as Ukraine and Gaza,” Mr. Sneider said. “But more importantly, China wants Mr. Biden to affirm or reiterate the position on Taiwan, namely that the United States does not support the island’s independence.”
Beijing’s move to San Francisco is partly driven by economic hardships as it recovers from the pandemic and amid a real estate crisis, Sneider said. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China recently fell between July and September for the first time since 1998.
Beijing has repeatedly asked the US to lift tariffs on China left over from the Trump era, but this time, Xi is likely to ask only for Biden to ensure the US does not impose new restrictions.
Chinese fighter jets conduct drills around Taiwan in August. The Taiwan issue is likely to be raised in the upcoming meeting between Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi (Photo: Xinhua).
There are many differences
Although both the US and China have shown their efforts to make the upcoming meeting a reality, experts say that we should not expect too much because there are still many differences between the two countries.
In addition, both sides will be unable to make concessions partly because of internal constraints. For example, Mr. Biden will not take actions that could be seen as soft on China when he is up for re-election next year.
“They can pick some low-hanging fruit, like agreements on areas like artificial intelligence (AI),” Sneider said, pointing out that not only the US and Europe but also China are concerned about the potential for AI abuse. “But there will be no breakthroughs. They just need to move things away from the brink of conflict. That will be enough.”
So, even if the outcome of the San Francisco meeting is unlikely to be a breakthrough, it will still be an opportunity for each side to listen to the other’s position, thereby reducing misunderstandings. And one of the important things that can help increase understanding between the two countries is to promote exchanges between the people of the two countries.
"We want American and Chinese citizens, including scientists, scholars, tourists, etc., to be able to travel freely between the two countries," Mr. Morrison said. "A good sign is that the number of direct flights between the two countries has recently increased again, although it is still lower than in 2019."
Whether Mr. Biden or someone else wins the US presidency in 2024, the upcoming meeting will lay the foundation for the US and China to maintain momentum for future engagement.
"The meeting itself is very important and I think meetings at the leadership level are key," Mr. Sneider said. "It can lead to other things if things go well."
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