With the results achieved in 2024, international organizations assess that Vietnam's economy will continue to grow steadily with GDP of 6.5% or more. Photo: Hai Nguyen
In the newly updated February macroeconomic report, MBS Research experts expect Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to reach 7.1% - 7.5% thanks to the acceleration of public investment disbursement and the recovery of the manufacturing industry.
Besides positive factors, experts warn that Vietnam's export growth in 2025 still faces many challenges such as: Weak demand for electronic components in the short term, while major markets such as the US are increasing tariff barriers and applying new protectionist measures with unpredictable policies, which can disrupt the global value chain as well as impact key export industries such as textiles, wood, electronics, etc.
Furthermore, escalating trade tensions between major economies could indirectly affect Vietnam's export activities in exporting products with input materials imported from China to the US.
Recently, in a report published on February 20, Standard Chartered Bank forecasted that Vietnam's GDP would grow by 6.7%. According to Mr. Tim Leelahaphan - Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered, the first half of the year is forecast to reach 7.5% and the second half will decrease to 6.1%. This growth is mainly driven by continuous business expansion and the important role of FDI.
Mr. Tim Leelahaphan said that the driving force behind Vietnam's economic growth partly comes from FDI capital in key sectors such as manufacturing, which is ranked No. 1, followed by real estate, retail sales, agriculture, exports and the recovery of the tourism industry.
Ms. Nguyen Thuy Hanh - General Director and Head of Corporate and Investment Banking of Standard Chartered Bank Vietnam - said that the forecast of Vietnam's economic growth rate in the first half of the year to be higher than the second half is based on the continuation of strong growth from last year in the first half of this year.
The second half of the year will see greater volatility, especially in the second quarter, when the US government will announce more details about its trade policy, including tariffs on products such as semiconductors, cars and pharmaceuticals. These decisions will affect not only the Vietnamese market but also the global trade situation.
Therefore, the first half of the year will see stable growth, but the second half of the year is forecast to see a slowdown in the global economic situation, mainly due to uncertainty in trade policies.
At the closing session of the 9th extraordinary session held on February 19, with 463/464 delegates participating in the vote, the National Assembly voted to pass the Resolution of the National Assembly supplementing the socio-economic development plan for 2025 with a growth target of 8% or more.
Laodong.vn
Source: https://laodong.vn/kinh-doanh/tiep-tuc-du-bao-lac-quan-ve-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam-2025-1467254.ldo
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