Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on June 13 that he would not rule out holding a snap election. His comments came amid speculation that he could dissolve the lower house of parliament early to pave the way for a snap election – a common move to help the ruling coalition consolidate its position at a time when the opposition has little chance of turning the tide.
“My administration is addressing issues that have been delayed until now, both in domestic and foreign policy. Regarding the early election, I will make a decision in line with this basic stance after considering various factors,” Kishida said at a press conference, referring to ongoing debates in the Diet on key bills.
Motion of no confidence
Until June 13, Mr. Kishida had used similar language, saying that he was not considering an early election at the moment. But according to the Japan Times, the Japanese Prime Minister’s evasive response at the press conference raised the possibility that he may have “changed his mind” on the issue.
Before the press conference, Mr. Kishida met Mr. Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary-General of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and former Prime Minister Taro Aso at the party's headquarters in Tokyo.
For Mr. Kishida, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) filing a no-confidence motion against his Cabinet could prompt the Japanese Prime Minister to seek a new term with higher approval ratings by triggering an early election.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida listens to questions from the media during a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office in Tokyo, June 13, 2023. Photo: Zawya
A bill to secure funding for the increased defense budget that was proposed late last year, which the CDP has so far firmly opposed, is currently being debated in a committee of the Japanese upper house. In the final discussions later this week, the CDP may file a no-confidence motion in an effort to raise its profile and express its opposition to the Kishida administration.
“If the opposition’s no-confidence motion is a trigger for an early election, that would be good for us,” CDP leader Kenta Izumi told reporters on June 9, without mentioning a specific timeline for submitting such a motion.
Meanwhile, influential members of Mr Kishida's ruling LDP have repeatedly said that a no-confidence motion would be reason enough for the prime minister to trigger a snap election.
“Given that a no-confidence motion is equivalent to a declaration of disapproval of the Cabinet, that could be a legitimate reason for an early vote,” Hiroshi Moriyama, chairman of the LDP’s election strategy committee, said in a television interview last week.
National project
The Kishida administration has made Japan's birth rate its biggest national project as the country recorded its lowest birth rate ever last year with just 800,000 births annually.
Saying that this may be the last chance for the “Land of the Rising Sun” to reverse this trend by 2030, Mr. Kishida also revealed details on June 13 of the government’s new package of measures to reverse the trend of the birth rate, such as increasing the child care budget by 70% over the next three years and increasing the birth allowance. Initially, the government will issue special bonds to finance these measures, the Japanese Prime Minister said.
However, some opposition parties have criticized the Kishida administration for trying to implement large-scale tax hikes to secure funding for childcare policies as well as plans to expand the country's defense spending.
In response, Mr. Kishida said his government would not add to the public burden on child care policy, and promised to “radically cut” spending in other areas to secure funding.
Leaders of the G7 countries (Germany, the US, Japan, France, Canada, the UK), the EU and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pose for a photo before starting a working session on Ukraine at the G7 Summit in Hiroshima, western Japan, May 21, 2023. Photo: CNA
In Japan, legislatures often end their terms before the end of their term, and the government uses elections as a way to gauge public support before implementing major policies.
In deciding whether to hold an early election, Prime Minister Kishida will also need to consider a number of factors that could influence its outcome, including the final decision on the tax hike debate, the LDP’s fraying relationship with its coalition partner Komeito, and the rise of the opposition Nippon Ishin no Kai, now the third-largest party in parliament.
In addition, an NHK poll conducted over the weekend showed that Mr. Kishida's approval rating had dropped 3 percentage points from last month. The poll also showed that the disapproval rating had increased 6 percentage points.
The Japanese Prime Minister's declining approval rating is believed to be due to a series of recent problems related to the My Number Card personal identification system issued by the government in its push for digitalization, and the dismissal of Mr. Kishida's eldest son from his role as the Prime Minister's secretary for behavior "inappropriate" for his position.
Kishida’s approval ratings had surged in early March following signs of rapprochement with South Korea. The successful hosting of the G7 summit in Hiroshima in May and a series of positive signs on the economic front – the Tokyo Stock Exchange hitting a 33-year high in early June and the economy growing faster than expected – also appear to have given Kishida a boost in recent weeks .
Minh Duc (According to Japan Times, La Prensa Latina, Xinhua)
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