| Thai rice export prices turn down, Vietnamese rice remains at high level Rice export prices - A week of strong fluctuations |
Many countries continue to increase rice imports
According to FAO experts, rice is the main food source for more than 3.5 billion people and provides about 20% of the energy supply in the global diet. However, the world situation has recently fluctuated strongly due to geopolitical fluctuations and climate change, affecting the supply of this commodity. Meanwhile, the demand for imported rice in late 2023 as well as in 2024 is forecast to continue to increase.
In Asia, the markets with the highest demand for rice imports are Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia. “In the context of limited supply (India has not relaxed the ban on exporting common white rice until the end of 2024), the market before Christmas and before Ramadan (the Muslim fasting month) will boost demand for rice in Asian countries. Meanwhile, Asian demand is mainly from Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia,” said Mr. Subramanian from SSRESOURCE MEDIA Company (Singapore).
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| Demand for rice imports in many countries is increasing. |
Not only Asian countries, in Europe, the demand for rice imports of many countries has also increased significantly. Typically in Italy, according to Mr. Renzo Moro from the Italian Embassy in Vietnam, Italy is the leading rice producer in Europe, accounting for about 5% of the total rice output of the bloc. About 40% of rice grown in this country is used for processing. However, the size of the Italian rice market is expected to increase from 2.23 billion USD in 2023 to 2.83 billion USD in 2028.
This comes from the increased demand for rice from countries importing rice from Italy and domestic rice consumption. Therefore, through the EVFTA Agreement, Italy is increasing rice imports from many countries, including Vietnam.
Rice prices return to the "race" of increase
The increase in import demand from countries has “heated up” the global rice market, which has been gloomy for over a week. Data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) shows that export rice prices from global suppliers including Vietnam and Thailand have increased again after a period of stagnation.
Accordingly, the export price of Thai rice was adjusted to increase by 2-20 USD/ton compared to December 8. Of which, 5% broken rice increased sharply by 20 USD, to 643 USD/ton; 25% broken rice increased by 13 USD, to 581 USD/ton; 100% broken rice increased slightly by 2 USD, to 486 USD/ton.
Similarly, Vietnam's 5% broken rice was also adjusted up slightly by $5 per ton to $663 per ton after falling last week. Prices of 25% broken rice and 100% broken rice remained stable.
Pakistan's rice price "reversed the trend" and decreased slightly by 5 USD, from 598 USD/ton to 593 USD/ton.
The sharp increase in Thai rice prices is explained by VFA as being supported by large import demand from Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. In addition, thin Vietnamese rice inventories while India is absent also contribute to helping Thailand become the dominant supplier in the current white rice segment.
However, with most traders fully booked for shipments through December 23, some exporters are holding back on white rice offers and are now focusing on purchasing raw materials to fulfill their signed contracts, while others are offering higher prices at the start of the week and reducing them by the end of the week due to the weakening of the Thai baht against the US dollar. In addition, the Thai Rice Millers Association has continued to raise its domestic guide price for 5% broken white rice, which has also supported the country’s rice export market.
Meanwhile, in Vietnam, many businesses shared that the country's rice supply continues to be limited and the winter-spring rice harvest will not begin until early March 2024. "Export prices are currently very high but we have no goods to sell, so signing new contracts must be considered to avoid risks," said Mr. Phan Van Co, Marketing Director of Vrice Company Limited.
In 2023, rice exports increased sharply in the context of volatile rice markets. India, the leading rice exporter, restricted exports, contributing to increasing rice supply from Vietnam. In the first 11 months of 2023, Vietnam's rice exports are estimated to reach 7.75 million tons in volume and 4.41 billion USD in value, up 16.2% and 36.3% respectively over the same period in 2022. The average export price of rice in the 11 months is estimated at 568 USD/ton, up 17.3% over the same period. Notably, Vietnam's rice exports to all three markets of the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia increased sharply. Of which, exports to the Philippines reached 2.6 million tons, equivalent to a value of 1.4 billion USD; to Indonesia reached 1,123,357 tons, with a turnover of 614.676 million USD; to Malaysia 391,209 tons, worth 201.599 million USD. |
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