Most investors are still “holding their money” and standing outside to observe the market when there are too many unpredictable variables ahead. Where to invest in the second half of the year is the most asked question at this time.
 |
| Buying and selling transactions on the gold market have almost frozen in recent times. Photo: Duc Thanh |
Many variables await investors
At the seminar "Finding investment opportunities in the second half of the year" organized by Dau Tu Newspaper last weekend, Mr. Dat Tong, Senior Head of Market Strategy, Exness Investment Bank, said that there are two major risks that can change all the world's macroeconomic information in the second half of 2024: the results of the US presidential election and the slow recovery of the Chinese economy.
Although the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is highly independent, according to experts, the Fed's actions will also be affected to some extent by political pressure. Accordingly, if the Republican Party wins, the tight monetary policy will be maintained, and the Fed's ability to reduce interest rates will slow down. If the Democratic Party wins, on the contrary, monetary policy will be looser, and the Fed's interest rates will decrease faster.
In addition to the Fed's move, the world market is waiting for policy moves from a series of major banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, etc. Interest rate adjustments by central banks of various countries will cause fluctuations in exchange rate pairs.
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, an economic expert, said that in the scenario of the Fed cutting interest rates, the VND could depreciate by 5% this year. On the contrary, if the Fed is slow to cut interest rates, the exchange rate could increase by 5.5-6% this year.
Currently, the economies of many countries are entering a recovery phase. In particular, the wave of artificial intelligence (AI) is considered a highlight that makes a difference in improving productivity, efficiency, and recovery levels of countries. The speed of recovery of the world economy and the Fed's interest rate movements will affect investment channels globally.
According to Mr. Dat Tong, in the second half of this year, gold will continue to be supported by strong demand from central banks, especially the BRICS group (including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Not to mention, demand for gold jewelry from countries that favor gold consumption is also increasing. In addition, the preferred asset classes in the second half of this year are predicted to be stocks in developing countries, European market stocks (which are currently cheaply priced), US bonds, etc.
“In general, stocks in the world market in the second half of the year focus on the valuation story. Where there is an attractive valuation, there is still opportunity,” Mr. Dat Tong analyzed.
Similarly, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu also believes that gold will continue to be an attractive investment channel this year and next year. Specifically, from now until the end of 2024, the price of gold could reach $2,500/ounce, and could even reach $3,000/ounce next year.
According to Ms. Lina Nguyen, Business Development Director, Exness Investment Bank, in the coming time, financial institutions and large investment funds from developed countries such as the UK, the US, Switzerland, etc. will continue to maintain their investment appetite for gold. In other words, in the coming time, gold will still be the first asset in the investment portfolio of large institutional investors. Next are stocks, especially large-cap groups, technology stocks.
In addition, digital assets are also attracting strong cash flows. Recently, more than 1,200 billion USD has been poured into digital asset ETFs. Cryptocurrencies are considered to have passed their dormant period, continuously attracting large institutional investors.
Will gold, stocks, and digital assets attract investment?
Regarding the Vietnamese market, experts all have quite positive opinions. Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung, Head of Corporate Clients, Capital Resources Division, Citibank, commented that this year, Vietnam's GDP could grow by 6.4%, CPI would increase by 3.4%, the exchange rate at the end of the year would only fluctuate around 25,300 VND/USD, the State Bank would not adjust the operating interest rate...
Despite the improving macroeconomic foundation, domestic investment channels are quite quiet: the gold market is frozen, the real estate and stock markets have reduced liquidity, cryptocurrencies are still in a policy gray area, and the corporate bond market is gloomy. In particular, bank deposits have increased to a record level despite low interest rates, due to people lacking investment channels.
Mr. Le Duc Khanh, Director of Analysis at VPS Securities Company, said that there are no signs of money flowing from stocks to other investment channels. The money is still in the account, investors only temporarily stop trading when the market has not improved.
“They are waiting for an event, a clearer sign. This period is in an information valley. I think that, entering the end of the third quarter of 2024, when the information is clearer, investor sentiment will be more optimistic. In the second half of 2024, investors should look at businesses with good business results and stable cash flow,” Mr. Khanh commented.
Where to invest in the second half of the year?- Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, economic expert
I think that the second half of 2024, the stock market will be more stable and better than the first half of the year. Stock codes related to industrial parks, renewable energy, transportation, especially banking will be more sustainable and attractive than other stocks.
Real estate in the fields of agriculture, land, commerce, resorts, and tourism has not yet seen any improvement, but real estate in urban and industrial areas has developed best since the beginning of 2024 and is forecast to continue to have potential until the end of 2024.
Gold is probably the most cautious investment area, because it is not only affected by market factors, but also strongly affected by policy factors. In particular, 2024 is the year when the State is very interested in the gold market and will have strong adjustments.
Crypto - digital currency is still viewed with great caution by the regulatory agency, but there has been no move to prohibit it, other than the regulation of not using digital currency in payments. In the event of major geopolitical and global economic fluctuations, I believe that crypto will rise to the top and put great pressure on the State Bank.
Meanwhile, Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien, Director of Research at MB Securities Company (MBS), said that the stock market in the second half of this year will be optimistic thanks to four positive factors: the Fed is close to lowering interest rates; the economy is improving; profits of listed companies are recovering (expected to increase by 20% this year and 15% next year); interest rates are maintained at low levels in the context of other investment channels not recovering strongly.
According to Ms. Hien, VN-Index could reach 1,350 points by the end of this year. However, investors still have to be wary of risks related to inflation, exchange rates and net withdrawal pressure from foreign investors.
With gold, although the price is predicted to continue to increase in the coming time, experts say that this investment channel in Vietnam is unlikely to "heat up" in the second half of the year. The reason is that buying and selling transactions in the gold market are almost frozen.
Meanwhile, the investment channel for cryptocurrencies and digital assets is flourishing again. According to data from Chainalysis, up to 120 billion USD in cryptocurrencies was transferred into Vietnam within 1 year, up to June 2023, nearly 5 times higher than the 25 billion USD entering Vietnam through foreign investment channels.
Dr. Pham Anh Khoi, Deputy Head of the Fintech Committee, Vietnam Blockchain Association, said that Vietnamese people currently have about 20 million digital asset accounts, 4 times more than the number of securities accounts. The above figure of 120 billion USD is only a modest number compared to the actual investment of Vietnamese people. Although this is a large investment channel, it lacks a legal corridor, so it is not well controlled, causing tax losses and leading to many other problems such as anti-money laundering, user protection, etc.
“If we have a strict management policy soon, instead of going into the uncontrolled underground economy, money flow can become a good driving force to boost the economy. Of course, investors participating in this field need to prepare knowledge and understanding of the financial market, technology and law, consult experts and leading organizations, continuously assess and update risks of fluctuations and law, and choose a reputable trading platform. In particular, it is necessary to have a clear investment strategy and diversify the portfolio to minimize risks and maximize benefits,” Mr. Khoi recommended.
Real Estate Investing: Time to Buy
Regarding the real estate investment channel, Mr. Tran Tuan Tai, Investment Director of SonKim Retail, said that institutional investors and financial investors are looking for opportunities in distressed assets (a type of asset sold at a price much lower than its real value, because the seller or business needs money urgently).
Meanwhile, individual investors tend to be interested in real estate products with mid-range prices. This is also the type of investment that many market research units recommend at the present time.
Real estate businesses are looking for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) opportunities to increase their land fund. For the retail sector, the wave of land returns will be an opportunity for businesses to take advantage of land acquisition to serve the chains.
From an expert's perspective, Dr. Le Xuan Nghia believes that the most special point of the market in the second half of this year is that 3 new laws related to real estate will come into effect (Land Law, Housing Law, Real Estate Business Law), which will remove difficulties in many legal procedures. In addition, the Government may soon issue a Resolution to clear thousands of shelved projects in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi.
The above two factors can create a boost for the entire real estate, construction, and public investment markets and contribute to warming up the corporate bond channel again. "Now is the time to invest in real estate," Mr. Nghia recommended.
More cautiously, Mr. Vo Hong Thang, Investment Director of DKRA Group, said that policy factors will not have much impact on the real estate market in the second half of this year. The record amount of deposits poured into banks and the record low liquidity of the real estate market show that people still have a wait-and-see mentality.
However, in the long term (5-10 years), the coming into effect of the three new laws will help the market develop more safely, sustainably and fairly for all participants. According to Mr. Thang, investors can take advantage of low interest rates at this stage to participate in the market, but must put safety as the most important principle, based on their ability to repay debts.
Experts predict that in the coming period, class B projects (housing under 65 million VND/m2) and class C projects (under 35 million VND/m2) will still be the market-leading segments, meeting real housing and investment needs.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/nha-dau-tu-om-tien-ty-tim-kenh-rot-von-d220958.html
Comment (0)