In 2024, the Vietnamese stock market marked many remarkable developments. Despite being under a lot of negative pressure in the second half of the year, Vietnamese stocks in 2024 still left many positive results, experts gave investment strategy recommendations.
VN-Index closed 2024 at 1,266.8 points, down more than 5 points compared to yesterday's session, with red covering the market with the banking group strongly diverging. Liquidity reached 480.5 million shares, equivalent to a value of VND 11,560 billion. Market breadth was on the negative side with 254 stocks down, 155 stocks up and 79 stocks moving sideways.
The market fluctuates but not "empty-handed"
After a long slide from the historical peak in 2022 and a "plunge" at the end of 2023, the Vietnamese stock market entered 2024 with many concerns. This was reflected when the market had a favorable start and accelerated in the first half of 2024, but concerns about exchange rates and net selling by foreign investors caused the index to stagnate in the second half of 2024, continuously missing the opportunity to conquer the 1,300 point mark.
Market liquidity decreased to about 15,000 billion VND/session in the period of October-December.
Explaining this, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thinh, Head of Investment Consulting Department, VNDirect Securities, said that in the second half of 2024, the Vietnamese stock market will face many challenges from both objective and subjective factors, including: The pressure of the USD/VND exchange rate increasing sharply, causing foreign investors to continuously sell off in the market; The lack of supporting information makes it difficult for the market to break out, although GDP growth is quite good, it does not include the recovery and growth of listed enterprises; The shift of cash flow to other investment assets such as Gold, Real Estate and Cryptocurrencies.
Summary of Vietnam Stock Market developments in 2024
The market increased sharply in the first half of the year, then went sideways, accumulating in the second half of 2024 (Photo: SSI iBoard)
However, experts say that 2024 is not necessarily a "blank" year for the stock market as the VN-Index still recorded a recovery of about 13% compared to the end of 2023, being in the high growth group in 2024. Although not too high compared to the US and Japanese markets, it is higher than many other Asian countries in the region: India, Malaysia, Indonesia,...
The average daily trading value on HOSE reached VND21,500 billion, up 23% over the same period last year.
Therefore, it can be said that "2024 is a "pivotal" year when the main trend of VN-Index is Sideway (sideways) with market stability; domestic cash flow is more abundant but not strong enough to create a breakthrough when the supporting factors are not really clear", Mr. Thinh emphasized.
Doctors prepare for the new year
In addition to the existing results, the Vietnamese stock market in 2024 with "bright spots" from important policy reforms, contributing to the transparency and professionalization of the Vietnamese stock market, creating a solid foundation for the Vietnamese stock market to enter 2025 with many positive expectations.
According to Mr. Thinh, those expectations mainly come from the story of upgrading Vietnam's stock market. Specifically, the efforts to implement Non-Prefunding activities (allowing foreign investors to buy shares without depositing money in advance) will help bring the opportunity to upgrade Vietnam's emerging stock market to FTSE standards closer.
Another factor that will help Vietnam be considered for upgrading its stock market in September 2025 is if the KRX trading system is put into operation, thereby helping the market attract foreign investment capital again.
Vietnam's stock market enters the new year with many growth expectations and opportunities for investors (Photo: Internet)
In addition, the expectation of profit growth of the whole market is estimated to reach 18% in 2025, led by large industry groups such as Banking, Residential Real Estate, Retail and Industrial Real Estate, which is both a driving force and a solid foundation for the growth of the VN-Index in 2025.
However, at the same time, the stock market still faces a number of challenges such as fluctuations in the global economy due to the unpredictable management policies of US President Donald Trump and policies to increase tariffs on imported goods from China, Europe and many other countries. Next is the pressure on exchange rates, this is an old story of 2024 but will continue to last until 2025 in the context of the weakening VND.
During the period after the New Year and before the Lunar New Year, cash flow in the stock market will decrease due to the trend of investors "holding assets" during the long holidays, in order to avoid information and fluctuations that may affect the market. Moreover, the VN-Index is moving towards the 1,300 point area - the peak area of 2024, but the market has not yet conquered it.
Therefore, the market is likely to have some corrections, but at the same time, this is also a good time to accumulate potential stocks for 2025.
Investors should focus on prioritizing sectors and stocks with growth stories. "In the context of the market cash flow not increasing, stocks will be differentiated, only really good stocks with high profit growth expectations will increase in price better than the index," Mr. Thinh emphasized.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Dang Van Cuong, Head of Investment Consulting Department, Mirae Asset Securities, said that according to statistics over the past years, the market often brings good performance in the weeks before and after Lunar New Year, so investors can maintain a high proportion of stocks, accumulate and seize opportunities in potential stocks in industry groups such as:
Banks, as of December 13, 2024, the total credit of the system increased at a relatively high level of 12.5% compared to the end of 2023 (according to the State Bank), showing that the demand for loans is returning. Thanks to that, the business results of banks are expected to grow well in the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. Notable stocks are CTG (VietinBank, HOSE) with high credit growth, reduced provisioning pressure.
Aviation, thanks to the strong growth of international tourists last year and key projects such as Terminal T3, Tan Son Nhat airport is being accelerated to completion, this is expected to bring growth to port and aviation service companies such as ACV (Vietnam Airports Corporation, UPCoM), SCS (Saigon Cargo Services, HOSE), SGN (Saigon Ground Services, HOSE).
Retail with the recovery of consumer purchasing power as disposable income increases. The stocks showing clear growth are MWG (Mobile World, HOSE) and FRT (FPT Retail, HOSE).
In addition, the Real Estate - Construction stock group is also suggested by many experts as an industry group that investors may be interested in when the real estate market begins to enter a new cycle, helping demand grow along with policies to remove legal difficulties, thereby leading to growth in the construction industry thanks to real estate projects.
Or the Technology industry, benefit from strategic technology projects such as cooperation with Nvidia to develop AI technology, expand the data center market and deploy 5G networks. The combination of global trends and positive business results will create a sustainable price increase wave for this group of stocks, typically stocks of the "family" FPT and Viettel.
Source: https://pnvnweb.dev.cnnd.vn/nha-dau-tu-chung-khoan-chuan-bi-gi-buoc-vao-nam-moi-20241231224518981.htm
Comment (0)