Positive credit growth, abundant bank liquidity

Commercial banks have actively implemented credit programs to support economic growth.

Bank liquidity is "good"

At the regular meeting of the Government in March 2025 with ministries, sectors and localities, Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Nguyen Thi Hong said that inflation risks are increasing due to global trade tensions, the Fed's interest rate cut roadmap is expected to slow down; some central banks have temporarily stopped cutting interest rates... this will create pressure on monetary policy management, exchange rates, and interest rates. By the end of the first quarter of 2025, credit growth reached 3.93%, 2.5 times higher than the 1.42% of the same period in 2024 and contributed positively to the total social investment capital. In the coming time, the State Bank of Vietnam will continue to monitor developments in financial policies in the world and continue to operate flexible monetary policies to promote economic growth.

According to the SBV leader, in the first quarter of 2025, the new mobilization interest rate increased by about 0.08% but the lending interest rate continued to decrease by 0.4% compared to the end of 2024, demonstrating the companionship and sharing of credit institutions in supporting the economy. According to the assessment of credit institutions in the SBV's business trend survey report for the second quarter of 2025, VND lending interest rates in the first quarter of 2025 decreased slightly by about 0.08-0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Bank liquidity in the first quarter continued to maintain a "good" status, achieving a higher improvement compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 and compared to expectations. Credit institutions also forecast that liquidity will continue to improve in the second quarter of 2025 and the whole year of 2025. Although the level of improvement is narrower than in the previous survey, this is the basis for credit institutions to continue to consider conditions to reduce lending interest rates, supporting the economy to achieve growth targets.

According to the report of the Ministry of Finance, the economy in the first quarter of 2025 is estimated to increase by 6.93% over the same period last year, which is the highest growth rate in the first quarter of the years 2020-2025, but has not yet reached the target of the Government's economic growth scenario of 8% or more in 2025. To achieve this year's growth target, economic experts said that it is necessary to make great efforts, harmoniously combining fiscal and monetary policies with other macroeconomic policies to control inflation, ensuring capital supply for the economy. At the regular meeting in March 2025 with localities, in the 10 groups of tasks and solutions that the Prime Minister mentioned in the coming time with ministries, branches and localities, the Prime Minister assigned the State Bank to operate monetary policy proactively, flexibly, promptly, effectively, harmoniously and synchronously coordinated with fiscal policy; At the same time, build credit packages for developing transport infrastructure, supporting key industries, and solving output for farmers.

Flexible response to challenges

Bank credit capital is the lifeblood of the economy, even small fluctuations in the currency market and interest rate policies will affect production, business and consumption. According to the results of the State Bank of Vietnam's business trend survey, 74-76% of credit institutions assessed that the overall business situation and pre-tax profit of the unit in the first quarter of 2025 had improved compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 and expected to continue the improvement trend in the second quarter of 2025, although the improvement level was much lower than the expectations of credit institutions recorded in the previous survey. However, the proportion of credit institutions assessing the business situation as declining compared to the previous quarter increased from 8.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 14.8% in the first quarter of 2025, much higher than expected.

It is expected that in 2025, credit institutions forecast that "Customer business and financial conditions" will be the most important objective factor positively affecting the business situation of credit institutions, followed by "Economic demand for the unit's products and services" and "The State Bank's credit, interest rate and exchange rate policies". In addition, 6.96% - 14.8% of credit institutions are still concerned that these factors will negatively affect the business situation of credit institutions in the first quarter of 2025. However, it is expected that in 2025, this rate will decrease slightly to 5.2% - 12.2%... Although there are still concerns, credit institutions expect that risks from customers will continue to decrease in 2025.

According to the SBV's Q2-2025 business trend survey report, credit institutions forecast that in Q2 and the whole year of 2025, the average VND lending interest rate of the whole system will decrease slightly by 0.03-0.08 percentage points. Credit balance growth is forecast to reach 16.4% and capital mobilization of the whole system is expected to increase by 13.1% in 2025. Short-term capital mobilization and credit are forecast to grow higher than long-term ones. The survey results of this period also mark the highest average expectation level in the past 5 years of credit institutions for the annual capital mobilization growth rate (since the surveys in 2020 to present).

In the first quarter of this year, economic growth and bank credit both reached positive levels, showing an optimistic signal in the context of a volatile and challenging global economy. Economic experts say that Vietnam is an economy with a large openness and is heavily dependent on exports, FDI investment, etc., so with ongoing trade tensions, the imposition of tariffs by the US will have a global spillover effect, possibly slowing down the global economy. Along with that is the pressure on financial and monetary policy management on countries, due to rising price pressure, rising inflation and ensuring the major balances of the economy becoming more difficult. Therefore, in order to support people, businesses and the economy, the State Bank has directed credit institutions to continue to cut administrative procedures, apply technology, etc. to reduce costs, as a basis for considering reducing loan interest rates, ensuring capital supply for the economy.

Article and photos: GIA BAO

Source: https://baocantho.com.vn/tin-dung-tang-truong-tich-cuc-thanh-khoan-ngan-hang-doi-dao-a185357.html