What is the turn for Europe in a turbulent world?

The year 2025 marks a crucial turning point for Europe, as the region faces an unpredictable United States and an increasingly assertive China-Russia alliance. In this volatile context, the old continent needs a pragmatic hedging strategy that both strengthens its defenses and is flexible in diplomacy to protect its interests and maintain its position on the international stage.

Screenshot of article on Modern Diplomacy.

The above comments are from researcher Shiwen Yap (*) in the article "Europe's hedging strategy in a shifting global order" published in Modern Diplomacy on March 8.

The situation is very unstable.

According to Mr. Shiwen Yap, Europe is facing a complex geopolitical context.

Tensions in transatlantic relations have increased since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House. At the same time, the increasingly close partnership between Russia and China has also posed a direct threat to regional security. In this context, the "old continent" is forced to adopt a multi-faceted hedging strategy to protect its interests and maintain its influence on the international stage.

Mr. Shiwen Yap emphasized that Russia's military campaign in Ukraine has changed the post-Cold War European security structure, as President Vladimir Putin's administration shifts toward an economy that adapts to conflict.

Meanwhile, US-Europe relations under President Donald Trump’s second term face a number of challenges, from the threat of 25% tariffs on allies like Canada and Mexico to increasingly questioned commitments to NATO, raising concerns about America’s reliability.

These changes are all the more worrying given the history of transatlantic cooperation. Europe no longer sees Washington as a true “ally” but rather an “indispensable partner,” forcing the continent to prepare for the possibility that the US will reduce or limit its support, especially on security issues.

Meanwhile, China-Russia relations are growing stronger. Mr. Shiwen Yap described this as a “ no limits ” alliance. A report by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in January 2025 pointed out that Beijing and Moscow are stepping up cooperation in key areas such as AI, trade and military assistance. In particular, China is becoming an economic “lifesaver” for Russia in the face of sanctions pressure from the West.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, European Council President Antonio Costa (L) and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at a special EU summit in Brussels, Belgium on March 6. (Source: Reuters)

China-Russia axis

Mr. Shiwen Yap emphasized that the China-Russia partnership is transactional but there are still many underlying tensions, including historical conflicts and border disputes.

Despite their differences, it is not easy to split the Sino-Russian relationship from the outside, as both countries focus on challenges from the West. Currently, the relationship between the two countries is at its closest since the Cold War, while the US and Russia remain deeply at odds.

According to Mr. Yap, China and Russia are well aware of the threats from the West to their vital interests and understand that if they go it alone, they will easily fall into a weak position.

Therefore, a quick reconciliation between Washington and Moscow is almost impossible, especially when bilateral relations are rife with historical contradictions and lack the motivation to change.

Overall, the likelihood of the US and Russia forming an alliance to counter China is very low, given complex economic, historical, and geopolitical ties.

On the other hand, the two countries are also rivals in many important economic areas, especially energy. These differences make it difficult for the two sides to find common ground to form a strategic alliance.

Handling relations with the US

According to Mr. Shiwen Yap, to deal with the current instability, Europe needs to apply a multi-pronged strategy, balancing between autonomy and international cooperation. Especially in the context of the increasingly clear threat from Russia and the risk of the US reducing its security commitment, the top priority of this continent is to strengthen its defense capacity.

Bruegel’s Defending Europe without the US report states that if the US withdraws, Europe will be forced to strengthen its military to avoid conflict with Russia. Specifically, the old continent needs 300,000 more soldiers and at least 250 billion Euros more each year for the defense budget.

Despite the upheavals, Europe still needs to maintain cooperation with the US to ensure a minimum level of connectivity. (Source: European Policy Centre)

The author of the article argues that to achieve this goal, Europe needs to invest in advanced military technology, expand ammunition production and improve coordination among EU countries.

However, promoting defense integration and strengthening military power is not simple, as the region still faces major political and transport barriers.

Member states also need to overcome historical reticence about sharing sovereignty in the security field to promote defense procurement cooperation, organize joint exercises and develop synchronized military capabilities.

Differences in foreign policy toward China continue to hinder the EU’s efforts at strategic unity. However, Europe still needs to maintain minimal links with the US, and utilize NATO and transatlantic mechanisms to counter the China-Russia axis.

To keep Washington on board, the EU may have to make concessions on economic interests and global cooperation. But the continent also faces the risk that the US will shift its focus to competing with Beijing, undermining its commitment to Europe.

Brussels also needs to prepare for the risks of a trade war with the US. This requires a multifaceted strategy to protect its interests and maintain international influence.

According to Mr. Shiwen Yap, the EU must skillfully adjust its policy towards the US, ready to pivot cooperation from security to economic-technological or vice versa, depending on the priorities of the White House administration.

Coping with the "Asian dragon"

The relationship between Europe and China is increasingly complex, with both economic interdependence and strategic rivalry. According to Mr. Shiwen Yap, tensions have increased since the EU adopted a three-part strategy in 2019, combining partnership, competition and systemic rivalry.

The situation has worsened as Beijing has been seen supporting Russia in the Ukraine conflict and pursuing a foreign policy that is confrontational towards the West. Given this reality, the EU needs to reassess its approach to China, replacing the old strategy with a more flexible approach to adapt to future challenges.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during a meeting in June 2023. (Source: Chinese Foreign Ministry)

Faced with geopolitical challenges, Europe needs a more pragmatic approach to China, combining a strategy of “co-existence” and “de-risking.” This includes expanding ties with partners such as Australia, India, Japan, ASEAN, and reducing dependence on Beijing in key areas such as energy and digital transformation.

While this process has already begun, the EU still needs to find a balance between diversifying its partners and avoiding unnecessary conflict. European autonomy must be demonstrated in concrete actions, from military investment to a coherent foreign policy.

At the same time, the old continent still needs to maintain transatlantic ties, regardless of who leads the White House.

By balancing self-reliance with selective partnerships, Europe can protect its interests and maintain its role in an increasingly fragmented world order. The success of this strategy will determine whether Europe becomes an independent, resilient actor or a geopolitical pariah.

(*) Mr. Shiwen Yap is an independent researcher and venture capitalist based in Singapore, specializing in market development and business strategy for early-stage startups and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). He has expertise in implementing go-to-market strategies and analyzing the impact of global issues on business operations.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/nga-re-nao-cho-chau-au-trong-mot-the-gioi-day-bien-dong-306986.html