Record low birth rate, policies needed to attract retirees to work

According to the National Statistics Office, from 2009-2022, for nearly 15 years, Vietnam's birth rate remained relatively stable.

However, in the last two years, 2023-2024, the fertility rate has begun to show signs of decreasing more rapidly. In 2023, Vietnam's TFR was 1.96 children/woman and continued to decrease to 1.91 children/woman in 2024.

The TFR in urban areas is 1.67 children/woman, lower than that in rural areas (2.08 children/woman). A total of 32 provinces and centrally-run cities have a fertility rate lower than the replacement level (below 2.1 children/woman); 25 provinces and cities have a fertility rate fluctuating around the replacement level and 6 localities have a fertility rate higher than the replacement level (higher than 2.5 children/woman).

Of which, Ho Chi Minh City is the locality with the lowest birth rate in the country (1.39 children/woman), Ha Giang has the highest birth rate in the country (2.69 children/woman).

Vietnam's total fertility rate is 1.91 children per woman, the lowest ever. Photo: Hoang Ha

According to the General Statistics Office, these are signs that the birth rate is on a downward trend and has decreased quite rapidly in recent years.

Experience from many countries in the world such as Europe, Japan, Korea, and China shows that when the birth rate has decreased, it is difficult to increase again. In 2022, OECD countries had a TFR of 1.5 children/woman; Japan had 1.26 children/woman; Korea: 0.78 children/woman.

Therefore, if we do not have timely policies soon, the birth rate will continue to decrease in the following years. In addition, it is possible to study and promulgate birth incentive policies suitable to Vietnam's economic and cultural conditions so that the birth rate does not decrease too quickly when the economy develops.

According to some studies by the United Nations, a country's population structure is considered to be in the golden population structure period when the child population (0-14 years old) accounts for less than 30% and the elderly population (65 years old and over) accounts for less than 15%.

Vietnam is still in the period of “golden population structure”, when for every dependent person there are two people of working age. Of which, the proportion of the population aged 15-64 accounts for 67.4%, the proportion of the population under 15 accounts for 23.3% and the proportion of the population aged 65 and over accounts for 9.3%.

Since 2011, Vietnam has begun the process of population aging and is one of the countries with the fastest population aging rate in the world. In 2024, the number of elderly people aged 60 and over will be 14.2 million, an increase of 2.8 million compared to 2019 and an increase of 4.7 million compared to 2014.

It is forecasted that by 2030, the number of people aged 60 and over will be approximately 18 million, an increase of nearly 4 million compared to 2024. Thus, according to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam is in a period of rapid aging due to increased life expectancy and decreased birth rate.

“The issue of population aging has many impacts on long-term economic development, reducing labor force and productivity, requiring more investment and social spending for health care needs, infrastructure and social issues for the elderly,” the General Statistics Office assessed.

In the short term, population aging affects the structure of the labor force, thereby affecting economic growth and development. In the long term, population aging creates multi-dimensional impacts, in many areas from the economy to social security and culture.

One of the solutions recommended by the General Statistics Office is to encourage the elderly to participate in economic activities, especially those with high technical expertise, to reduce unemployment, contributing to reducing the overall dependency ratio including old-age dependency.

“Innovate in building mechanisms and policies to effectively attract the workforce of retirement age…, focusing on developing appropriate job creation policies and improving income for the elderly.

In fact, there are many cases where the elderly, especially those aged 60-75, are still healthy, have good working capacity, have experience, and are capable of contributing to the community and society," according to the General Statistics Office.

GDP in 2024 increased by 7.09%, exceeding the set target . According to the General Statistics Office, GDP in 2024 increased by 7.09% compared to the previous year. This increase exceeded the set target and is an important premise for acceleration in 2025.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/viet-nam-chua-giau-dan-so-da-gia-tang-truong-kinh-te-gap-kho-2363149.html