The national fertility rate is falling below the replacement level, as the average number of children per woman of childbearing age has decreased from 2.11 (2021) to 2.01 (2022), 1.96 (2023) and 1.91 (2024) and is forecast to continue to decline in the coming years. The fall below the replacement level (2.1 children) will affect the size, structure and quality of the population. Therefore, relevant agencies need to have specific, reasonable and practical solutions to soon stabilize the fertility rate.
From 2006 to 2021, Vietnam maintained the replacement fertility rate, ensuring an appropriate population growth rate and a reasonable population structure. The country's population in 2023 reached more than 104 million people.
It is time to resolve this promptly.
According to the Ministry of Health, Vietnam is in the golden population period, a period that creates great advantages for socio-economic development. Population quality and human development index are constantly increasing; average life expectancy is increasingly improved. These important premises create conditions for the transition of population policy from family planning to population and development.
However, with forecasts and scenarios of continued decline in fertility, it is expected that by 2039 Vietnam will end its golden population period, the working-age population will peak in 2042, and the population will begin to grow negatively after 2054. The consequences of a prolonged low fertility rate will lead to a shortage of labor force, a decline in population size, and accelerated population aging, thereby negatively impacting socio-economic development.
Over the past 20 years, the fertility rate in urban areas has fallen below the replacement level, fluctuating at 1.7-1.8 children/woman; while the fertility rate in rural areas has always been higher than the replacement level, fluctuating at 2.2-2.3 children/woman.
Director of the Department of Population (Ministry of Health) Le Thanh Dung said: Vietnam is shifting from a high birth rate to a low birth rate; from an early birth model to a late birth model; from a young population structure to an aging population. Currently, maintaining a stable and sustainable birth rate is extremely important. As life expectancy increases, the birth rate decreases, leading to rapid population aging. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain a replacement birth rate, maintain an even birth rate among regions and areas; and not let the birth rate fall too low, especially in large cities and key economic zones.
Low fertility rates are currently concentrated in 21 provinces and cities (accounting for 39% of the country's population), in the Southeast, Mekong Delta, and South Central Coast regions. Ho Chi Minh City has the lowest fertility rate in the country with a total fertility rate of only 1.39 children/woman. Meanwhile, regions with stable or above high fertility rates include: the Northern Midlands and Mountains (2.34 children/woman), and the Central Highlands (2.24 children/woman).
The Ministry of Health has submitted to the Government an Ordinance amending Article 10 of the 2003 Population Ordinance to stabilize the birth rate, maintain the replacement birth rate nationwide, and overcome the disparity in birth rates between regions. The draft ordinance stipulates the rights and obligations of each couple and individual in implementing the population and family planning campaign, and reproductive health care; each couple and individual decides on the time of childbirth, the number of children, and the interval between births.
However, according to experts, this solution, although suitable for areas with low birth rates, is not effective for areas with high and stable birth rates. Therefore, a comprehensive, flexible and strategic solution is needed to stabilize sustainable birth rates...
In addition to legal factors, economic issues, housing, family living expenses, child-rearing costs, etc. make many families reluctant to have more children. Difficulties and obstacles in terms of material resources, family time, and the fear of "lacking many things" are affecting the decision to have children of many young families.
Ms. Nguyen Ngoc Lien, 28 years old (from Thai Binh), a worker at a garment factory in Binh Duong industrial park, said that the monthly income of the couple is 14 million VND, after deducting the rent, there is 10 million VND left to spend for the family of three. Her daughter is 5 years old, her paternal and maternal families encourage her to have more children, but with the current income, raising one child is still difficult, so the couple has not thought about having a second child.
Similarly, Tran Thi Nga, 30 years old (from Thanh Hoa), and her husband, although they graduated from university, are only sales staff for a supermarket chain. Their son is also in first grade, but with a total income of 14-15 million VND/month, the family only has enough to pay for rent and basic living expenses. When her child is sick, she has to borrow money from colleagues or advance her salary. When asked about having another child, Nga worried: "With my current income, I can't save any money every month. If I have another child, how can I afford it?"
Need for stable and sustainable policies
To make the empowerment of couples and individuals to have children truly effective, it is necessary to synchronously implement solutions such as: economic support, improving social welfare, supporting women to balance work and family... Changing regulations without specific accompanying policies will hardly achieve the expected goal of increasing the birth rate.
In the long term, there needs to be a specific, harmonized policy to balance the birth rate between regions. Some argue that a policy applied to different regions is not only ineffective, but can also increase the population gap between regions.
According to Professor, Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu (Chairman of the Scientific Council - Institute for Population, Family and Children Research), Vietnam's population model is paradoxical when the birth rate in mountainous areas is higher than in the plains, in rural areas is higher than in urban areas, and groups with difficult circumstances often have more children than the remaining groups. Therefore, there should be specific policies for each region. In addition, there should be policies to support social welfare, otherwise encouraging more children will create more economic pressure for families and society.
According to the "Program to adjust fertility rates to suit regions and groups by 2030" approved by the Prime Minister, localities need to ensure fertility rates between regions to reach replacement fertility levels. The specific goal is to increase the total fertility rate by 10% in provinces and cities with low fertility rates; reduce it by 10% in provinces and cities with high fertility rates; and maintain results in provinces and cities that have reached replacement fertility levels.
Thus, localities with high birth rates need to continue to apply and improve the effectiveness of implementing support policies, encouraging communities to not have a third or more child; and support people to implement family planning services.
To solve this problem, to achieve harmony and balance in population size, structure and quality among regions, it is necessary to combine many socio-economic support policies, change thinking and create a favorable environment.
Source: https://nhandan.vn/giai-phap-tong-the-ben-vung-de-on-dinh-muc-sinh-post866308.html
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