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Gold price finds it difficult to maintain the threshold of 1,900 USD, pessimism prevails; What is the forecast for gold price this week?

Báo Quốc TếBáo Quốc Tế02/07/2023

Gold prices today, July 3, started the new week with a dominating pessimistic sentiment. In the market, facing challenging headwinds, even seasoned bulls are talking about the possibility of gold prices falling.

LIVE UPDATE TABLE OF GOLD PRICE TODAY 7/3 and EXCHANGE RATE TODAY 7/3

1. SJC - Updated: 07/01/2023 08:26 - Website time of supply source - / Compared to yesterday.
Type Buy Sell
SJC 1L, 10L 66,350 67,050
SJC 5c 66,350 67,070
SJC 2c, 1c, 5 phan 66,350 67,080
SJC 99.99 gold ring 1 chi, 2 chi, 5 chi 55,250 56,250
SJC 99.99 gold ring 0.5 chi 55,250 56,350
Jewelry 99.99% 55,150 55,850
Jewelry 99% 54,097 55,297
Jewelry 68% 36,132 38,132
Jewelry 41.7% 21,442 23,442

Global gold prices are set to end the first half of 2023 at a significant distance from where they started the year, while market sentiment appears to be pointing to further declines in the near term as the precious metal faces challenging headwinds.

At the close of trading last week, the gold price stood at $1,919.80/ounce, up $11.7 from the previous session . However, the market has continuously plummeted in sessions during the week, establishing a main downward trend. The August gold futures price last traded at $1,926/ounce, relatively unchanged from the previous week.

It is no surprise that investors are moving away from gold as solid economic activity continues to support risk assets, said Christopher Vecchio, head of forex at Tastytrade.com .

While gold appears to be holding support around $1,900 an ounce, Vecchio sees any recovery as short-term and an opportunity for investors to quickly take profits rather than a sustained rally. As such, “gold is facing a difficult environment where real yields are rising and will remain so for a long time as central banks continue to raise interest rates,” he added.

Giá vàng hôm nay 3/7/2023: Giá vàng
Gold price today July 3, 2023: Gold price is difficult to maintain the threshold of 1,900 USD, pessimism prevails; What is the forecast for gold price this week? (Source: Kitco)

Domestic gold price, although the price of SJC gold bars increased by 300,000 VND/tael, after half a year, gold bar holders still lost 150,000 VND/tael due to the high difference between buying and selling prices. The high difference between buying and selling prices reduces the attractiveness of gold.

In contrast to SJC gold bars, after half a year of holding 9999 jewelry gold, the buyer makes a profit of about 2 million VND/tael. The current selling price of 9999 gold is 53.85 million VND and the buying price is 55.48 million VND/tael. Thus, the buyer makes a profit of about 2 million VND/tael.

Summary of SJC gold prices at major domestic trading brands at the closing time of last weekend's trading session (July 1)

Saigon Jewelry Company listed the price of SJC gold at 66.35 - 66.97 million VND/tael.

Doji Group currently lists SJC gold price at: 66.40 - 67.00 million VND/tael.

Phu Quy Group listed at: 66.45 - 67.05 million VND/tael.

PNJ system listed at: 66.45 - 66.95 million VND/tael.

SJC gold price at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at: 66.37 - 66.95 million VND/tael; Rong Thang Long gold brand is traded at 55.43 - 56.28 million VND/tael; jewelry gold price is traded at 54.90 - 56.005 million VND/tael.

Gold price forecast: Difficult to maintain the threshold of 1,900 USD

The results of the latest Kitco News weekly gold survey, show that sentiment in the Wall Street analysts were mixed, with optimists and pessimists evenly matched, while retail investors maintained a bearish bias.

According to Kitco's survey on gold market fluctuations, out of 21 Wall Street analysts, 8 people (equivalent to 38%) predict gold prices may increase; the same number of people predict a decrease; the remaining 5 analysts (24%) predict gold prices will go sideways.

While Wall Street analysts are evenly split between bullish and bearish, retail investors remain bearish. Of the 845 respondents to the online poll, only 314 (37%) said gold would rise this week, while 374 (44%) said it would fall, while 19% were neutral.

Analyzing market trends, expert Christopher Vecchio said that there have been "invisible walls" in the market, but so far, none of those fears have come true, so investors are starting to feel more comfortable taking more risks.

Meanwhile, looking at the market from a different perspective, Marc Chandler, CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex , said he is bullish on gold as short-term changes in financial markets are pushing prices a little higher. However, the expert added that he likes to sell rallies in this environment.

"I look for a stronger dollar and higher US interest rates, which should help with a solid jobs report on July 7. However, gold's momentum indicators appear to be bottoming and the action on June 29 suggests a recovery could be imminent."

"I expect the recovery to keep gold prices in the $1,920-$30/ounce range, but I prefer to hold a short position and may do so if gold recovers to around $1,920-$1,930."

Adrian Day, chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management, is cautious on the upside, explaining that while gold prices could see a modest rise next week, the precious metal remains caught in a tug-of-war between multiple market factors.

“There are still risks in the short term as the gold market does not appear to have fully priced in future interest rate hikes in the US and elsewhere, while the large financing needs of the US government will drain liquidity and hurt gold,” he said.

Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com , also said that improving economic conditions will continue to put pressure on gold prices. "A strong economy, low unemployment and rising yields will confirm to the Fed that the US economy can absorb further rate hikes," he said. "This will put downward pressure on gold. If the US dollar remains strong, it will add to that pressure. A weak US dollar will have the opposite effect, but not enough to spur any rally," he added.

On the flip side, however, a factor supporting gold prices is rising geopolitical uncertainty. Most analysts bullish on gold have noted that increased uncertainty and risk will support gold as a safe-haven asset. Last week, the world witnessed a failed military uprising in Russia, which provided little safe-haven demand for gold.



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