Coffee supplies from Vietnam are running out, while the outlook for the next crop is not very optimistic. The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) recently predicted that coffee prices will increase again, mainly due to investors' increasing concerns about the supply prospects from Vietnam.
Coffee price today 6/30/2024
World coffee prices continue to fall with robusta, while arabica continues to rise. At the end of the last trading week of June, robusta coffee prices fell to nearly $4,000/ton.
According to the World & Vietnam, at the end of this weekend's trading session (June 29), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange continued to decrease, with the September 2024 delivery period decreasing by 36 USD, trading at 4,011 USD/ton. The November 2024 delivery period decreased by 15 USD, trading at 3,850 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange edged up slightly, with September 2024 delivery up 0.45 cents, trading at 226.8 cents/lb. Meanwhile, December 2024 delivery increased 0.3 cents, trading at 224.5 cents/lb. Average trading volume was low.
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| Domestic coffee prices at the end of the week (June 29) continued to decrease by 600 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. |
Last week, domestic coffee prices fell by VND2,300/kg in localities. Prices fluctuated between VND118,200 - 119,300/kg.
Hedge funds have increased their net long positions in anticipation of continued shortages in robusta supplies from Vietnam. Vietnam’s robusta coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year is estimated at 24 million bags, the lowest in 13 years, due to unfavorable weather, according to Volcafe, a trading house.
The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Affairs Office (USDA Post) forecasts that Vietnam's coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year will be around 29 million bags (60 kg/bag), a slight decrease compared to the estimated 29.1 million bags in the 2023-2024 crop year. Of which, robusta coffee output will reach 27.85 million bags, lower than the 28 million bags of the previous crop year.
While Arabica output will increase slightly to 1.15 million bags, Vietnam’s 2023-24 coffee production estimate is revised up 6% from the previous forecast to 29.1 million bags. Higher coffee prices in 2023-24 encourage farmers to increase investment in production to reduce harvest losses as well as other inputs.
Domestic coffee prices at the end of the week (June 29) continued to decrease by 600 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Vietnam's production outlook has yet to improve, so robusta coffee prices are expected to continue to rise.
Deputy Director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MVX) Nguyen Ngoc Quynh forecasts that coffee output could decrease by 10-16% due to extreme heat hitting the Central Highlands coffee region from March to early May.
Vietnam’s coffee growers have been hit hard by the worst drought in nearly a decade this year, raising concerns about higher global coffee prices, even as some farmers maintain good yields with clever countermeasures, Reuters reported.
The outlook for the next harvest in Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee producer, remains bleak.
However, the return of rains in recent weeks has improved the outlook, boosting the confidence of farmers and local authorities. But it remains unclear whether improved weather will boost production and lower prices for robusta, the variety most commonly found in espresso and instant coffee, of which Vietnam is the world’s top producer.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-3062024-gia-ca-phe-trong-nuoc-giam-2300-dong-nguon-cung-can-dan-trien-vong-vu-toi-khong-may-kha-quan-276891.html
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