| Coffee price forecast September 21: Coffee output supplied to the market at the lowest level of the year? Coffee price forecast September 22: Supply shortage recurs, coffee prices plummet at the end of the week? |
Coffee prices are forecast to be stable on September 23, 2024 in the domestic market. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) said that domestic coffee prices are forecast to be stable because the supply has been exhausted and there are few transactions. Vietnam harvests coffee in November and December, so in September and October every year, the coffee output supplied to the market is at its lowest level of the year.
The world’s two largest suppliers, Brazil and Vietnam, have both suffered crop failures due to climate change, which has impacted prices. In addition, speculation on the London exchange has also caused strong fluctuations in coffee prices.
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| Coffee price forecast September 23: Coffee prices continue to fluctuate strongly |
Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on September 22, 2024 as follows: The domestic coffee market today dropped sharply by 2,000 - 2,200 VND/kg, ranging from 119,500 - 120,000. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 119,800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong, Dak Lak, Kon Tum, Gia Lai provinces is 120,000 VND/kg.
Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 120,000 VND, down 2,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 119,900 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 120,000 VND/kg, down 2,100 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at 120,000 VND/kg, down 2,100 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 119,500 VND/kg, a decrease of 2,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
Coffee prices today (September 22) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 120,000 VND/kg, down 2,100 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at 119,900 VND/kg.
Updated world coffee prices at 9:00 p.m. on September 22, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 5,059 USD/ton, down 189 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.
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| Coffee price today September 22, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com |
The November 2024 delivery term is 4,803 USD/ton, down 186 USD; the January 2025 delivery term is 4,614 USD/ton, down 184 USD and the March 2025 delivery term is 4,485 USD/ton, down 174 USD.
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| Coffee price today September 22, 2024: New York Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 9:00 p.m. on September 22, 2024 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 243.80 - 250.75 cents/lb.
Specifically, the December 2024 delivery period is 250.75 cents/lb; down 10.90 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 2025 delivery period is 248.65 cents/lb, down 11.05 cents/lb; the May 2025 delivery period is 246.45 cents/lb, down 10.95 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 243.80 cents/lb, down 10.80 cents/lb.
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| Coffee price today September 22, 2024: Brazilian Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 9:00 p.m. on September 22, 2024 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for September 2024 is 302.30 USD/ton, down 2.36%; the delivery period for December 2024 is 304.80 USD/ton, up 0.33%; the delivery period for March 2025 is 303.50 USD/ton, up 0.56% and the delivery period for May 2025 is 301.75 USD/ton, down 4.58%.
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
This week, coffee prices on both exchanges fell sharply despite the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years. Explaining the reason, experts said that the market's move was predictable and there were no surprises because the market had been preparing for the Fed's interest rate cut for a month. Speculators and funds had increased their purchases and hoarding for weeks before the market's excitement.
In addition, over the weekend, forecasts of rain in Brazil pushed the two trading floors to liquidate more strongly, leading to consecutive price drops. According to sources, there will be rain in the coffee growing areas of Brazil next week, right during the period when water is needed for the plants to flower, which is a very important time for Brazilian coffee plants. In addition, the high price of gold also sucked all capital from other markets, including coffee.
Rainfall in Arabica regions has been consistently below normal since the start of the dry season in April, Rabobank said in a note. Rabobank forecasts the global market will move from balance to a small surplus in 2024/25, but shipping delays, container shortages and new EU anti-deforestation regulations coming into effect will keep prices stable at high levels for the remainder of 2024.
Hot and dry weather in Brazil remains the main supporting factor, dampening prospects for next year's crop.
Brazilian farmers are delaying the sale of Robusta coffee in anticipation of further price increases, according to brokerage Hedgepoint Global Markets. Brazil has sold a record amount of Robusta this year, due to a shortage in supply from Vietnam. Previously, Indonesia - the world's third-largest producer of Robusta coffee - also reduced the supply of coffee to the market in anticipation of higher prices.
*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality.
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