Vietnam's coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous crop year, down to 1.47 million tons, the lowest in 4 years, putting pressure on Robusta supply in the world market, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
Coffee price today 7/2/2024
World coffee prices are still fluctuating, but in a different scenario than last week, robusta increased and arabica decreased.
Domestic coffee prices have increased, currently trading in the range of 119,000 - 120,300 VND/kg.
The world coffee exchange has been volatile since the beginning of this month. In contrast to the first day (July 1), Robusta coffee prices turned up due to the support of the USD, while information about the harvest in Brazil pushed Arabica back down. The high amount of short-buying last weekend also caused the price of coffee on the New York floor to fall.
New market news from India - the world's fifth largest coffee exporter, is benefiting from a surge in robusta prices, surpassing arabica prices in the domestic market. The country's coffee exports have hit new records in value for the past three years and are expected to reach a new peak this year. Indian coffee farmers are "hitting the jackpot" as a shortage of robusta coffee due to drought in Vietnam has led to a price surge. The Coffee Board of India (CBI) said that nearly 70% of India's total coffee output of 374,200 tonnes in the 2023-24 crop year is robusta.
The continued decline in certified coffee inventories on the ICE Exchange, combined with dismal export figures in Vietnam, is the main reason for the price movements of the two commodities. According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), as of June 28, the inventory of certified Arabica on the ICE-US Exchange decreased by 790 bags of 60kg, bringing the total number of certified coffee here to 807,394 bags. Meanwhile, the weakening of the Brazilian Real has pushed the USD/BRL exchange rate up by 1.21%, to its highest level in more than 2 years. The larger exchange rate difference creates the psychology that Brazilian farmers will increase coffee sales due to earning more foreign currency.
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| Domestic coffee prices on July 1 increased by VND800 - 1,000/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Pinterest) |
World & Vietnam records at the end of the first trading session of the new month (July 1), Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased, the September 2024 delivery period increased by 56 USD, trading at 4,067 USD/ton. The November 2024 delivery period increased by 51 USD, trading at 3,901 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased, with the September 2024 delivery term down 1.95 cents, trading at 224.85 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2024 delivery term down 2.15 cents, trading at 222.35 cents/lb. Average trading volume.
Domestic coffee prices on July 1 increased by 800 - 1,000 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Coffee exports from Vietnam are decreasing as domestic supplies gradually dry up.
According to estimates from the General Statistics Office, in June, Vietnam exported only 85,000 tons of coffee, equal to 60% of the coffee export volume in the same period in 2023. In the first 6 months of the year, Vietnam exported about 902,000 tons of coffee, down 10.6% over the same period last year.
Currently, in major coffee growing areas, drought and pests have severely affected the productivity of this crop. Due to the impact of climate change, the dry season in Vietnam has come earlier than usual, and prolonged heat has caused water levels in dams in some provinces to drop rapidly. Coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous crop year, down to 1.47 million tons. This is the lowest level in 4 years, putting pressure on the supply of robusta coffee on the world market.
According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), the domestic coffee supply is almost exhausted, and the inventories of businesses and farmers are not large. Therefore, the export volume from now until the end of September 2024 will gradually decrease even though coffee prices are at a record high.
In recent years, low coffee prices have led many farmers to switch to higher-value crops. However, this year's record high coffee prices are expected to be an opportunity for farmers to restore coffee acreage.
Since the beginning of the year, coffee prices have been increasing well, which is a good sign ahead of this year's harvest, making farmers very excited but also making many coffee businesses worried. According to forecasts, future climate changes will cause a shortage in Vietnam's coffee supply. In addition, there is also a reason why speculators have started to hoard goods, causing coffee prices to increase.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-272024-gia-ca-phe-theo-kich-ban-khac-mot-quoc-gia-chau-a-huong-loi-nho-nguon-cung-robusta-thieu-hut-277040.html
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