Reversing a series of policies, making shocking statements

Just a few days after taking office (January 20), US President Donald Trump has had a series of shocking policies, along with bold statements and proposals that have caused strong fluctuations in financial, stock and commodity markets.

Countries are closely watching every move and word of the new US president with the vision of “making America great again”. The policies of the Trump administration will have a strong impact not only on the US, but also on many partners as well as the world economic outlook.

At the recent World Economic Forum (WEF) 2025 in Davos (Switzerland), Mr. Trump declared that interest rates should be reduced worldwide, while central banks in many countries are concerned about inflation returning to rise. The White House owner said that "he will ask (the US Federal Reserve - Fed) to reduce interest rates immediately."

This statement repeats the view that “the president needs to have an important voice in the Fed’s interest rate decisions” that Mr. Trump repeatedly emphasized during the race for the White House. This is not new because during his first term, Mr. Trump repeatedly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for being slow in lowering interest rates.

Mr Trump wants to intervene in the Fed, contrary to the views of Mr Powell and his colleagues on the importance of the institution's independence.

Immediately after Mr. Trump's statement at WEF, the USD plummeted, US stocks simultaneously soared to new historical peaks, and gold prices on January 24 increased by about 1.3% to over 2,780 USD/ounce.

US stocks have rebounded after hitting a record high in 2024 and are now being questioned about a possible downturn. Many fear that the tech bubble, including the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, could burst.

Previously, on the first day of his inauguration, Mr. Trump signed an executive order declaring a national energy emergency and withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement. The US will replenish its strategic oil reserves and boost energy exports. Oil prices have fallen over the past few days due to Mr. Trump’s announcement and partly due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East with expectations from the US president.

Mr. Trump blamed OPEC for the war in Ukraine, by allowing oil prices to rise, and called on the organization to lower oil prices. According to Mr. Trump, the war between Russia and Ukraine could quickly end if oil prices were brought down.

On January 21, Mr. Trump also heated up the global technology market when he announced the $500 billion artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure project called Stargate from the Softbank, Oralce and OpenAI alliance. The news not only made the world boil but also caused a "war of words" between Elon Musk - who contributed greatly to Mr. Trump's race to the White House - and Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI) because of this project. Of course, the AI ​​super project is considered a new step in the US-China technology war.

In the near future, the trade war between the US and many countries may escalate after Mr. Trump threatened to impose a 25% tax on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% penalty on imports from China, possibly from February 1.

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US President Donald Trump. Photo: BLB

What is the future for the US and world economies?

The world's financial and commodity markets have fluctuated strongly following Mr. Trump's rapid policy decisions. Just the first two days have been like President Trump's entire term, from energy, immigration, to trade...

About 100 executive orders have been issued, followed by lawsuits in several US states. He has also caused controversy by pardoning more than 1,500 people involved in the 2021 Capitol riot and retaliating against his critics.

The world is predicting a war not only in the field of trade, but also in technology after Mr. Trump announced the $500 billion AI Stargate technology super project.

What investors are worried about is that Mr. Trump's policy changes, from immigration, green energy, taxes, virtual currency... could cause instability for the US economy as well as the world. Many policies have changed 180 degrees such as on virtual currency, postponing the ban on TikTok...

Coupled with the impact of the US and world media, the anxiety has caused many financial and commodity markets to fluctuate. Gold prices have skyrocketed.

So with Mr. Trump's policies, what will happen to the US and world economies?

“Unusual” and “uncertain” are words that organizations use a lot in economic forecasts.

However, looking at it as a whole, it can be seen that Mr. Trump’s policies are not too unpredictable. They all seem to have a common direction, like his campaign slogan: “Make America Great Again”. That is to protect the interests of the American people and American businesses on a large scale, without favoring a single group of subjects (such as green economy, green finance, or mass immigration…).

Mr. Trump's policy of reducing domestic taxes and cutting waste in the government apparatus is also aimed at the above goal.

The new White House boss's orientation to maintain America's No. 1 position is also quite clear: Not spending money to support other countries, organizations (NATO, WHO...) but focusing on reviving domestic production (reducing domestic taxes, increasing import taxes...), attracting money to America, boosting investment in technology, conquering space..., thereby affirming the No. 1 position. That is focusing on developing internal strength.

With such policies, many countries and regions will be affected, including the European Union (EU) and China.

The EU is considered the most worrying. China, meanwhile, has been better prepared after the trade-technology-currency war during Trump’s first term. In the first days after taking office, Trump has not said much about the EU, but the possibility of imposing higher tariffs on goods from this region is inevitable. China also faces the possibility of tariffs of up to 60%, in addition to a technology war.

However, Mr. Trump’s policies may also bring positive prospects for the world economy. Lower energy prices and a push to reduce waste and barriers (by the national apparatus) will help reduce input costs for production and business, thereby helping to control inflation and giving countries more room to support growth.

In the long term, the technology race could be a boost for the US and world economies. The Stargate project is considered a breakthrough in AI infrastructure in the US, not only creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs for the US, promoting re-industrialization but also supporting AI applications in other economic sectors.

In the future, the world may witness businesses that do not require direct human labor but still serve life well and generate high profits, such as automated delivery, AI-assisted assembly manufacturing, self-driving taxis, etc.

The world economy will soon be a game for technology giants such as Tesla, SpaceX, OpenAI, Oralce... The role of "supermen" like Elon Musk, Sam Altman... may help the economy enter a completely different phase from the traditional economy.

The global currency war could also be very different from the past. It could be a race to take the lead in the field of digital currency, digital assets…

In 2025, the USD is forecast to decline, thereby reducing exchange rate pressure in many countries. Geopolitical tensions in many regions will decrease.

On the energy front, oil prices are likely to fall further. In the short term, this is positive for the US and global economies, and could help end the conflict in Ukraine. However, in the long term, this could cause concerns for the US oil industry and global suppliers.

President Trump makes a series of decisions, the trade and technology war will be fierce. Mr. Donald Trump signed a series of decrees right after his inauguration speech, declaring to bring America into a new era, using all resources to help the American people get rich and the country strong... In addition, there are many billionaires behind the new administration.