Stock Market Perspective Week 7/29-8/2: Valuation of many stock groups at the disbursement zone
VN-Index is returning to the lower boundary of the accumulation price channel, thereby bringing the valuation of many stock groups to a more reasonable zone for disbursement.
After a week of trading under pressure with a fairly sudden trading volume, especially under the pressure of information that the total margin debt at the end of the second quarter of 2024 reached a new peak, higher than the beginning of 2022. The VN-Index experienced another negative trading week with strong declines to the price range around 1,220 points.
The downward market pressure triggered margin calls, making investor sentiment more negative. However, at the end of the week, with margin call pressure gradually decreasing, the index closed positively, up 8.92 points and stopped at 1,242.11 points.
Although liquidity remained low and had not changed much compared to the previous session, still showing investors' cautious sentiment, selling pressure continued to decrease and active bottom-fishing demand in large-cap stocks helped the market's uptrend to widen towards the end of the session.
In the VN30 group, most stocks increased, especially BCM, MSN, FPT, contributing greatly to the increase in points of VN-Index and notably, BCM quickly returned to the highest price range since August 2023.
In addition, the green color of the weekend session also spread to most stock groups. In particular, the telecommunications technology group was the group that recovered the most with prominent names such as FPT, CMG, CTR..., after the recent strong correction period. The group of transportation and warehousing stocks also recovered when HVN escaped the floor plunge in the previous sessions and returned to increase points.
Statistics show that during the week of July 22-26, 2024, domestic individual investors were surprisingly the only ones net sellers with a value of VND 2,490 billion. In terms of net buying, domestic organizations bought the most with a value of VND 2,070 billion, followed by the self-employed group with a value of VND 1,624 billion. Foreign organizations and individuals bought VND 377 billion and VND 44 billion, respectively.
The return of foreign net buying was also a bright spot, contributing to the positive developments of the session. Overall for the week, foreign net buying returned with a value of about 410 billion VND, after many consecutive weeks of net selling. Foreign net buying focused on KDC (+470 billion VND), SBT (+439 billion VND), VNM (+232 billion VND) and MSN (111.6 billion VND)... On the other hand, net selling was seen in DGC (-419.5 billion VND), SSI (-288.8 billion VND)...
According to Agriseco Research experts, it will be relatively difficult to predict exactly when foreign investors will return to net buying orders in the market, especially in the short term. However, investors can expect a reversal of foreign capital flows to take place soon thanks to (1) the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowering the operating interest rate in September, helping to narrow the interest rate gap and reduce pressure on the exchange rate; (2) VN-Index adjusting to bring market and stock valuations to a reasonable range that can attract foreign investors' cash flow.
Information this week, businesses are gradually revealing their business results for the second quarter of 2024. Up to now, about 600 listed businesses have announced financial reports or given estimates of business results .
Of which, after-tax profit increased by 21.6% over the same period, higher than the growth rate of 16.7% in the first quarter of 2024. This is a positive signal showing that the economy is still recovering, reflecting in the business results of enterprises.
Agriseco Research analyzed more specifically, the financial group contributed greatly to the profit growth in the second quarter when this group had a profit increase of 34.2% compared to the same period, mainly thanks to the banking group with an increase of 37%. In the non-financial group, the announced profits of enterprises only achieved a growth rate of 8.6% compared to the same period.
In particular, industry groups with growing profits include residential real estate, industrial park real estate , seaports - logistics, seafood, rubber... On the contrary, industry groups with declining profits include textiles, pharmaceuticals, utilities (gas, electricity, petroleum).
Last week, reports from several organizations such as HSBC and Citibank all had positive assessments of Vietnam's economic prospects based on the strong growth momentum of GDP in the second quarter and the export and FDI sectors.
Agriseco Research believes that the clear differentiation of business results between industry groups may continue in the third quarter of 2024, and the second half of 2024 when the low base factor of the same period is no longer present. Therefore, the selection and search for investment opportunities will need to be done carefully.
On the technical chart, VN-Index has recovered after reacting to the 1,220 point zone and the oversold RSI. However, Agriseco Research believes that the short-term trend has turned bearish and selling pressure may increase again when VN-Index gradually moves towards the 1,250 (+-5) point zone in the coming sessions. The scenario of a "V" shaped recovery that some investors in the market expect is unlikely to happen, especially in the context of strong selling pressure from individual investors as it is now.
VN-Index is approaching the lower boundary of the accumulation channel, thereby bringing the valuation of many stock groups to a more reasonable level for disbursement. Investors can open buying positions during the market correction, prioritizing banking groups and VN30 groups, focusing on leading stocks when the market price has been deeply discounted and the RSI indicator has retreated to the oversold zone.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-297-28-dinh-gia-nhieu-nhom-co-phieu-ve-vung-co-the-giai-ngan-d220937.html
Comment (0)