Launchpad for growth in 2025

According to Conclusion No. 123/KL-TW and the socio-economic development plan approved by the National Assembly on February 19, 2025, Vietnam aims to achieve a GDP scale of over 500 billion USD and a GDP per capita of over 5,000 USD this year. The industrial - construction sector is expected to increase by 9.5%, services by 8.1%, and agriculture - forestry - fishery by 3.9%. Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and key localities are required to increase GRDP by 8-10%.

Summary of plans and forecasts for Vietnam's growth and inflation in 2025. Source: International Monetary Fund (2025), World Bank (2024), Asian Development Bank (2024)

Institutions - the "key" to acceleration

At the 9th extraordinary session of the National Assembly, the Government passed a resolution to streamline the apparatus to 14 ministries and 3 ministerial-level agencies. This is a breakthrough step to improve operational efficiency and save public spending. At the same time, Resolution 02/NQ-CP continues to emphasize improving the business environment, protecting business freedom and promoting innovation.

According to Professor Ngo Thang Loi (National Economics University), the private sector with more than 900,000 enterprises and 5.2 million business households, contributing up to 43% of GDP and creating jobs for 85% of the workforce, has not yet truly become a central pillar in the growth strategy.

“Private enterprises are being constrained by a tight institutional framework. If we do not remove it, it will be difficult for us to take advantage of this source of growth momentum,” he said.

In reality, private enterprises face a series of barriers such as complicated administrative procedures, informal costs and potential legal risks. Meanwhile, the state-owned enterprise sector, although accounting for only 11.2% of revenue, still holds up to 24.2% of profits and has much easier access to resources.

Fiscal and monetary parallelism

This year, the Government plans to implement an expansionary fiscal policy to stimulate aggregate demand. The 2025 budget plans to have a deficit of 3.8% of GDP, higher than last year. Public investment is being boosted with a total capital of VND857.5 trillion, up 38% compared to 2024. At the same time, the policy of reducing VAT by 2% and environmental protection tax by 50% on gasoline continues to be extended.

"To have growth, there must be investment, and to have investment, there must be capital to ensure development. In 2023, GDP grew by nearly 7%, then credit growth was at 14.55%. In 2024, GDP grew by 7.09%, then credit grew by 15.08%. On average, more than 2% credit growth will help GDP grow by 1%," said Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Dao Minh Tu, adding that in 2025, the SBV set a credit growth target of about 16% for the economic growth target of 8%, and if economic growth reaches 10%, credit growth must be at 18-20%.

However, the Deputy Governor also warned: “Monetary policy currently does not have much room left due to pressure on exchange rates, inflation and credit quality. Harmonious coordination between fiscal and monetary policy is an urgent requirement.”

In addition, policies to encourage green credit and support innovative businesses are also given top priority. Vietnam is gradually developing a sustainable financial market, aiming to upgrade the stock market and expand fintech applications.

Opportunities and challenges intertwine

In terms of foreign affairs, Vietnam continues to integrate deeply with total import-export turnover estimated at 786.29 billion USD - equivalent to 165% of GDP. However, the FDI sector still accounts for more than 70% of export turnover, while domestic enterprises have not yet been deeply integrated into the global value chain.

The Trump administration in the US is expected to impose heavy tariffs on Chinese goods and some Asian economies, creating an opportunity for Vietnam to welcome the wave of production relocation. However, this also comes with the risk of increased trade investigations.

“We can benefit but we must be careful. If we are not well prepared in terms of traceability and legal origin, we can easily become victims in the trade protection game,” noted Dr. Tran Toan Thang, a CIEM expert.

In addition, other risk factors such as the real estate market and imbalances in resource allocation still have the potential to cause instability.

To achieve 8% growth and create the premise for the 2026 - 2030 period with a double-digit target, experts recommend that the Government prioritize:

- Increase the efficiency of public spending, promote public investment disbursement.

- Improve institutions for private enterprises, reduce discrimination against state-owned enterprises.

- Developing digital economy, green economy and science and technology.

- Improve the quality of education and training to increase labor productivity.

- Limit the excessive use of monetary policy to avoid inflation risks and financial instability.

The year 2025 opens up great expectations, but also unprecedented challenges. Institutional reform is not only a necessary condition, but also a “vital key” for Vietnam to become an upper-middle-income economy in the near future.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/be-phong-cho-tang-truong-nam-2025-162698.html