Croatia no longer has the right to decide their fate after a 1-1 draw with Italy in the final round of Group B of EURO 2024.
Before the final match, Luka Modric and his teammates were 2 points behind Italy, forced to defeat their opponents to take second place, equivalent to a ticket to the round of 16. Croatia did this in... 97 minutes, with Modric opening the scoring. However, a momentary lapse of concentration in the final seconds caused Croatia to collapse with a beautiful equalizer by Mattia Zaccagni.
Modric and his teammates have run out of self-determination
Dropping the victory, Croatia finished third overall with 2 points. According to EURO 2024 regulations, only 4 of the 6 best third-placed teams will qualify for the round of 16. This means that coach Zlatko Dalic and his team will have to wait for the results of the third-placed teams in other groups.
In the ranking of third-placed teams, Croatia is currently ranked 5th out of 6 teams. Modric and his teammates are definitely ranked below Austria (3 points after 2 matches), Slovakia (3 points after 2 matches) and Hungary (3 points after 3 matches). To be sure of being in the group of 4 best third-placed teams, the Croatian team needs the following 4 conditions to happen at the same time.
Firstly, England must beat Slovenia by four goals or more, or by a score of 3-0 to bring Slovenia's goal difference down to -3, equal to Croatia's. Croatia would then be ranked above Slovenia due to the same goal difference, but having scored more goals.
If England beat Slovenia by three goals but by a score of 4-1, Croatia and Slovenia will have the same goal difference, goals scored and goals conceded and will have to compare fair play points to determine their third-placed teams. If England win by three goals but concede two or more (5-2, 6-3), Croatia will be eliminated.
Croatia is too dependent on Luka Modric
Second, Denmark must beat Serbia, or if Serbia beats Denmark, the score must be 4 goals or more. In case Serbia beats Denmark by 3 goals, the Eastern European representative must only concede a maximum of 1 goal (3-0 or 4-1).
Third, Türkiye must beat the Czech Republic (to keep the Czech Republic's score at 1).
Fourth, Portugal must beat Georgia (so that Georgia's score also stops at 1).
Only when the above 4 conditions are met, Croatia will have a ticket to the next round. Luka Modric and his teammates were forced to let other teams decide their fate, after Croatia played disappointingly in the group stage. Croatia let Albania equalize in the 90+5 minute, then let Italy score in the 90+8 minute, so in the end they only got 2 points.
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/co-hoi-di-tiep-cua-croatia-rat-mong-manh-cho-phep-mau-cho-luka-modric-185240625081028047.htm
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