What do experts say about goods exports in 2025?

Some experts believe that the export turnover of goods in 2025 could grow by about 10-12% compared to 2024.

Export growth lower than 2024, US is key market

The 2025 Investment Strategy Report recently issued by the Analysis Center - Rong Viet Securities Joint Stock Company stated that exports are expected to grow by about 10-12% in 2025, lower than the 14% growth rate in 2024.

According to the group of experts, Vietnam's export growth in 2025 will be in line with the recovery cycle of global trade growth, but growth will be lower than in 2024 due to the high base level of the same period.

Experts predict that exports will grow by about 10-12% in 2025 (Photo: Moit)

Specifically, in 2023, the country's import and export turnover reached more than 681 billion USD, down 6.9%, equivalent to a decrease of 50.25 billion USD compared to the previous year (figures announced by the General Department of Customs). Therefore, import and export in 2024 will benefit from growth on this low base. By 2025, import and export activities will be more difficult due to having to grow on the high base of 2024 (estimated at about 786 billion USD, according to estimates by the General Department of Customs).

The report also predicts that the main export market for Vietnamese industries and enterprises will be the US. Important export industries of domestic enterprises that can recover very positively are machinery, equipment, handbags, and wood; and textiles and seafood that can recover moderately.

“Similar to Trump 1.0, Vietnam could benefit from the shift in supply chains and goods when China is subject to tariffs, especially in the scenario where Trump imposes a 60% tariff on goods from China. The difference in Trump 2.0 is the higher/larger scale of tariffs on Chinese goods and Trump’s approach to tariffs on other countries,” said experts from Rong Viet Securities.

Specifically, the US market continues to be the main contributor to Vietnam's export growth in 2025 thanks to a more optimistic economic outlook than other markets, stable growth in consumer spending, and a wave of goods accumulation to cope with tariff policies from the Trump 2.0 administration.

However, exports to the US are expected to face many difficulties due to the country's trade defense policies. In the base case scenario, the experts of Rong Viet Securities assume that the Trump 2.0 administration will apply targeted tariffs/trade defense measures and link these tariffs to stricter rules of origin with the ultimate goal of still targeting Chinese goods moving to Vietnam to avoid higher tariffs from the US. The probability of Vietnam being subject to tariffs of 10-20% (although low) is still possible in the second half of 2025 or 2026, thereby negatively affecting export prospects.

Previously, in an interview with a reporter from the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong - Former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information - Ministry of Industry and Trade also said that in 2025, the growth of goods exports is likely to reach a higher figure than in 2024 thanks to the recovery of world market demand.

Growth target is high, but still achievable

Previously, at the 2024 year-end summary conference and 2025 task deployment of the Import-Export Department, the Import-Export Department informed that in 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade strives for export turnover in 2025 to grow by 12% compared to 2024. This is a high number, equivalent to each month the export turnover must grow by about 4 billion USD compared to 2023.

Mr. Nguyen Anh Son - Director of the Import-Export Department said that in 2025, goods export will still face unpredictable fluctuations in the world situation, but the Ministry of Industry and Trade has been making efforts to facilitate businesses, and at the same time, advising the leaders of the Ministry of Industry and Trade to complete legal documents in the direction of facilitating businesses participating in import-export activities.

Accordingly, recently, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has submitted to the Government for signing and promulgation Decree No. 01/2025/ND-CP, effective from March 1, 2025, amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree No. 107/2018/ND-CP dated August 15, 2018 on rice export business. Including many solutions to promote rice consumption and export.

For example, Decree No. 01/2025/ND-CP requires the Ministry of Industry and Trade to organize the implementation of a program to develop foreign trade activities and promote trade for rice and rice-processed products to enhance the value, quality and brand of Vietnamese rice, ensuring proactiveness, focus and key points in the management and operation of rice and rice-processed products.

Decree No. 01/2025/ND-CP also adds the responsibility of the Ministry of Finance to prioritize the allocation of annual funding for the program to develop foreign trade activities and promote trade for rice and rice-processed products.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade has advised the Government to issue a Decree amending the Decree on border trade; advised the Prime Minister to draft a Strategy for logistics service development to 2030, with a vision to 2050... to create a legal corridor for import and export activities.

On the business side, efforts are also being made to boost export activities in 2025 – the year when market demand is forecast to recover. For example, in 2025, the footwear industry aims to increase export growth by 10% compared to 2024, reaching a turnover of about 29 billion USD.

According to Ms. Phan Thi Thanh Xuan - Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Leather, Footwear and Handbag Association, to achieve this goal, in the coming time, the leather and footwear industry will still focus on exporting to available and easy-going markets such as Africa and Asia to have a suitable customer base and increase revenue.

Then, step by step, apply higher standards such as green production, green products to conquer demanding markets such as Japan, Europe, America... Enterprises also initially approach large e-commerce sites such as Alibaba, Amazon... to open more consumption channels. Currently, some large enterprises have signed contracts until mid-2025.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/chuyen-gia-nhan-dinh-gi-ve-xuat-khau-hang-hoa-nam-2025-368012.html