Is it true that the stock market is being manipulated, with investors leaving the market in frustration so that market makers can buy low-priced stocks?
On November 18, the stock market continued to plummet, with the VN-Index at times falling close to the 1,200-point mark, causing many investors to worry and sell off. Despite escaping at the end of the session, the VN-Index still closed with its third consecutive decline, falling deeply to 1,217.12 points.
Sweating, depressed
Foreign investors are still net sellers with a value of more than 1,400 billion VND. If calculated in the last 10 sessions, foreign investors have net sold stocks worth more than 8,200 billion VND. Experts said that the history of the Vietnamese stock market has never recorded such a large net selling momentum of foreign investors - more than 80,000 billion VND since the beginning of the year.
Mr. Khanh Minh (residing in Binh Tan District, Ho Chi Minh City), an investor who has been participating in the stock market for nearly 4 years, said that seeing foreign investors net selling stocks every day made him "hesitate" when placing orders.
"I don't surf stocks, but mainly buy to hold stocks, calculated by 6 months or 1 year, so I often observe the movements of foreign investors to see if they buy or sell, and which groups of stocks they prioritize. However, recently, even when the market reached the 1,220 - 1,240 point range, with attractive P/E valuations of many stocks, foreign investors still sold net, making me worried and hesitant to buy more, but just standing outside to observe," said Mr. Minh.
The stock market has repeatedly tried to surpass the 1,300 point mark but failed, even falling back to the 1,200 point mark, causing losses and frustration for investors. Photo: HOANG TRIEU
The psychology of many individual investors is similar, when seeing foreign investors continuously net selling despite positive macroeconomic information and positive profits of listed enterprises in many industries. Many people also question whether the Vietnamese market is still being manipulated, causing not only domestic investors but also foreign investors to get discouraged and "leave"?
Because the Vietnamese stock market has not followed any economic laws in recent times, even technical analysis is not accurate. A senior director of a foreign securities company said that according to his experience, the market is showing such signs.
The stock market is considered a "barometer" of the economy. However, foreign financial institutions highly appreciate the growth of the Vietnamese economy and its prospects in the coming time, but the Vietnamese stock market has continuously gone in the opposite direction - VN-Index has tried many times but in the end, it still returned to 1,200 points after 20 years of the market.
Mr. Tim Leelahaphan - Vietnam and Thailand economist, Standard Chartered Bank - forecasts that Vietnam's economy will grow by 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Vietnam's economic growth momentum is relatively strong, with improvements in many sectors, including import and export, retail, real estate, tourism, construction and manufacturing. The recovery of trade and increased business activities along with foreign direct investment will be the main growth drivers in 2025 and beyond.
Should I move?
In the context of the stock market repeatedly trying to surpass the 1,300 point mark but failing, even falling close to the 1,200 point mark, causing losses and frustration for investors, there are opinions on whether to move money from stocks to gold? Because the gold price has been discounted quite deeply when falling from a peak of over 2,790 USD/ounce to below 2,600 USD/ounce.
Mr. Phan Dung Khanh, Consulting Director of Maybank Securities Company, said that in the current market context, cash flow can shift from the stock channel to gold to diversify the portfolio. But that amount of money is not much, because buying gold is not easy, especially when gold is at its peak, with great risks. "To make a profit of 10% from gold investment in Vietnam is not easy because the buying - selling gap is large, meaning that the buying price of gold in the afternoon must increase by about 15%.
Not to mention, compared to other investment channels, gold does not bring yield while waiting for price increase like other investment channels. When investing in stocks and real estate, investors still receive dividends or rent for land and houses while waiting for price increase. But with gold, it is completely impossible, investors even lose more money if they deposit it in the bank" - Mr. Khanh analyzed.
Returning to the stock market, Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy Department - VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company, said that the market is being negatively impacted in the short term due to the fact that the central exchange rate has been continuously adjusted upward in the past week and the interbank exchange rate has almost returned to its mid-year peak, the interbank interest rate has increased again to exceed 5%... These factors have negatively affected the psychology of investors. The market will hardly have a breakthrough in the context of a lack of strong enough supporting information and there are no signs that the interbank interest rate and exchange rate have cooled down in a sustainable manner.
Mr. Truong Hien Phuong, Senior Director of KIS Vietnam Securities Company, analyzed that the current stock price has entered the oversold zone, many stock levels have reached reasonable levels to buy and hold, so selling off at this time is not reasonable. If investors are holding cash, they can wait for the market to decline deeply and strongly to buy good stocks or restructure their portfolio appropriately. Because when the market recovers, good stocks will increase faster.
"The nature of the stock market is sensitive to all types of information and is sometimes affected by some decisions of large investors. If we look from now until the end of the year, the outlook for the VN-Index is still positive, as shown in the positive Q4/2024 business results report; Vietnam will officially be upgraded to a stock market in 2025, specifically from the first quarter of 2025, contributing to attracting foreign capital back. In particular, the US Federal Reserve (FED) continues to reduce interest rates, which will reduce pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate," said Mr. Phuong.
When will foreign investors reduce net selling?
One of the solutions to facilitate foreign investors is Circular 68/2024/TT-BTC, which stipulates that foreign investors are organizations that are allowed to place orders to buy shares without requiring sufficient funds (Non-prefunding). This regulation is expected to encourage foreign investors to trade more.
Mr. Mai Hoang Khanh Minh, Director of Institutional Securities Services - Institutional Brokerage, SSI Securities Company, said that the company has officially implemented the application right after Circular 68 took effect. Currently, many foreign institutional customers have signed agreements to use this service.
"Non-prefunding is a very popular trading method in developed stock markets. Vietnam's official implementation of this regulation will create the most favorable conditions for foreign investors to participate more actively in investment and trading activities in Vietnam on the basis of increasingly higher international standards," said Mr. Minh.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/chuyen-gi-dang-xay-ra-voi-chung-khoan-196241118205226478.htm
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